Jon

This was a first for me honestly. Haven't seen a bust like this in years, maybe never. This isn't a situation when modeling trended our way within the last 24 hours and we ended up not getting it (which happens often with NW jogging, etc), it's a situation where  the Euro hits on 8"+ for days leading up to the storm and only the Nam 4km and HRRR starts talking differently. Warm SST's might have been the silent killer, moisture was simply too warm even with plenty of cold air and the TEXTBOOK and I mean TEXTBOOK track for Central NC. Good god this is bad. Can't ask for more, so when are we going to get another look at 12"+ for Wake? It will be a few years. Shame.

Regulars in this thread right now

18 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Where does he hide out these days anyway? I follow him on twitter. Dude is money. Is he on another board? (This is the only board I'm on so I don't know what else goes on in the online wx world aside from twitter)

He's on another board. I also just registered and am posting on that board.People were way too fast to run away webber on this board, lots of insight and he's going to be one of the most recognized distinguished mets of his time - that's a fact. I can't imagine where he will end up in 20 years...probably some climate forecaster with a million twitter followers. Ha.

Lol it was a great idea.

You're all welcome.


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Btw - check out how much this thread is rolling! Good god this was a great idea.


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Cool, what an ugly turnaround! January torch and now punting to February!! We should be used to waiting on Fab Feb now! But in a Nina, it's supposed to be toasty and summer starting in March!! Happy New Years to the SE!

Anyone punting to feb is an idiot


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EPS says we go back to conus warmth fairly quickly after the day 11-13 cold shot.  Cue the cliff jumping gifs...

Not surprising at all, I expect a warmup in mid Jan if we can't get sustained blocking which is hard to do. The next cold would have to be last week of Jan/early feb


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This thread should be hot today after the latest run of the GFS. Everything stays to the west. I guess you could say both the 0z para and 6z GFS look a little interesting at day 16; but hasn't day 16 always looked interesting.

Day 10 and 11 have back to back systems for NC on the 6z. Just not cold enough. Had it been a smidge colder this forum would be off its rockers in the disco thread ready to cash in on their 12" totals


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Bufkit warehouse is also a great resource for soundings to load up in BUFKIT

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/

2 hours ago, AshevilleCityWx said:

I hear CAD a lot where does this exactly mean I know sometimes it works here and a lot of times it doesn't with just rain?

 

It's very unique to our area, here's a write up on it http://theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/030/index.html

 

On 12/17/2014 at 0:27 PM, Jon said:

#5

 

2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

It's that time of year. 

Yep only 10 days off from the post in 2014. Mods need to get locked and loaded, it is time.

Great new (free) models this year: http://www.pivotalweather.com/ - features point and click soundings via SHARPpy

Me and my Doctor, I'll get one next year

#5

*BUMP* for the influx of new users after the last system

I'm adding this because it's going to get swallowed in the disco thread.

 

For people who are interested in noaa recon missions:

 

I emailed the guy over at http://tropicalatlantic.com/ to turn back on the pacific google earth plugin since recons were flying for winter, he has it up now and it's located here:

 

http://tropicalglobe...eastandcentral/ the direct plugin link is here: http://tropicalglobe...ndcentral/live/

 

 

NON-TASKED missions are here: http://tropicalglobe...d.cgi?year=2013

 

 

updates every 5 minutes, also has an archive...love the in-browser plugin so you don't have to download Google Earth and the different data sets! Enjoy.

We gotta get rid of that frat hair for ya bro!

That's the longest it gets, a little shorter now...haven't took the leap to cut it all off like my bro though, gf likes it too much

Me and my brother at my white coat ceremony...I'm on the right

 

 

Wes, that's really interesting. When I think of a sleet layer, it's a warm layer lower than 850. Is that not normally the case?

I think it can be below 850mb though, but really the overall concept is there has to be enough time for it to refreeze, of course.

Nice job Jon. Burger for Mod!!!!

Thanks man! Oh wait...THAT Jon.

Since when has that been the rule? Jon posts pics of his girlfriend all the time, much to my delight. Other people post their families and kids.

My girlfriend and I took a trip to Raven Rock State Park in Lillington, NC not too far from Buies Creek, where I'll be for the next 4 years in school. It was a great hike and the rock formations are awesome...some of the best I've seen in this part of the state.

That's what she said.

haha beat me to it.

Whos that sexy lady in these photos?

The girlfriend. Thanks for the compliment! lol

Circa 1970/1971....

Is the TV on or is that a ghost!?