BeauDodson

On 5/22/2021 at 12:59 AM, JoMo said:

Today marks ten years since the tornado. I'll never forget the sound (the roaring tornado, the constant ambulance sirens), sight (everything looking like a giant landfill, being able to see from one end of the city to the other end due to the lack of trees), and smells (first freshly cut wood and then natural gas) of that day, and the resultant days after that when so many people came to help. I'll never forget seeing the good side of humanity,  people working together, people looking out for their neighbors, and the will and determination to move forward and rebuild. I'll never forget seeing the bad side of humanity as well, the out of town looters, and the "master" development firm that the city hired to rebuild that delivered pretty much nothing. 

Joplin's population has pretty much stayed the same around 50,000 as it has for many years before and after the tornado. The housing stock has been replenished and in some places even exceeds what was there before. A developer that formed after the tornado has packed houses in pretty tightly in some places. That might not be a good thing when it comes to future storms. Only two families out of the original 7 still live in their Extreme Makeover Home Edition houses. Some moved to bigger houses, some moved away, and some didn't like being a tourist attraction and just wanted peace and quiet.

Hi JoMo, 

I thought about you on the anniversary of the tornado.  It is hard to believe that it has been ten years.  It seems like yesterday.

I don't come on the forums very often, but was browsing it this morning and noticed this thread was still active.  

I hope you are doing well.  I can't imagine the amount of trauma associated with an event like this.  I can only compare it to what I saw after Katrina and Rita.

It is hard to fathom so much destruction and loss of life.

1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

Hasnt been created in our forum yet.  May be one in the LA, TX and west forum.  Probably not much for us to track here other than a general discussion.  If Barry decides to shift towards the apps and spin for a while it will get much more interesting.

Thank you

1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

Gauges are maxed out on the mississippi.  A foot or more of rain along with a 3' storm surge, and possible tropical storm force winds slowing down the river outflow (even for a few hours) = disaster again for the French Quarter and various low spots around the city.  Hope these people truly learned their lesson from Katrina and evac early.  No excuses this time around.

It is amazing how many days many areas have been at or above flood stage.  Over one-hundred days in many areas.

Is this the main Barry thread?

This has been the spring of what could have been locally. 

We've had two tornado events.

Almost every event ends up being conditional.  And the conditions are never met.

Definitely has some potential.  We have had multiple potential events.  Timing of the front on Thursday is key to our local area.

Model guidance shows several MCS's over the coming days.  Plenty of boundaries, clouds, rain, and storms.  

Most of our events this year have come down to the morning of the event.

CIPS analogs are showing some decent events.  http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=MV&fhr=F084&rundt=2019050512&map=thbPPF

This is the near perfect forecast graphic set.

Wednesday and Thursday have some potential but, as always, is highly dependent on what happens with the dying MCS's.  

So far this year, our region has had numerous conditional events.  Meaning, the forecast has been low confidence because of ongoing rain and clouds.

The two tornado events were poorly forecast.  One tornado event did not have a watch and was in the general thunderstorm forecast zone.

Our last tornado event was on May 2nd.  That was under-forecast, as well.

It will be interesting to see if we can pull off a region-wide event this week.  Most of the events have been localized, thus far.

Hello

Some of you might be interested in this.  I cover southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.

I have started live blogging severe weather events.  Typically, in the past, the messages go out through my app system.  I have started to post all the messages into the live severe weather blog.

There is also some long-range information (videos/graphics) that might be of interest to some of you.

Keep in mind, for the most part, I try to explain weather in layman terms.  

Link Here is a sample from the May 2nd tornado event.

Thanks for the suggestions.  I will look over those.

Does anyone know who the best meteorologists are in the western New York area (Buffalo perhaps)?  Looking to follow them on Twitter/other.  TV meteorologists or other.

On 11/11/2017 at 11:07 PM, Aleksey said:

SE and Mi Winter Wx. I just moved up here about 2 months ago, from Georgia, so all my followers and group chat are from down there.

Hi Aleksey, sorry to bother you.  I attempted a Twitter search, but came up empty.

Can you link me to the page? 

For example mine is https://twitter.com/BeauDodson

Assuming there is an account page.  

Thanks for your time.

Beau

I am hoping to LES chase this season.  I have never done this before.  

The last major snow event that I photographed was Hurricane Sandy in West Virginia.

I have actually never experienced "true" lake effect snow.  I am hoping there are some significant events.

I am monitoring this thread.

On 10/25/2017 at 11:05 AM, Aleksey said:

You definitely get more than I do! I am in Saranac, right in between GR and Ionia! Usually GR picks up an annual 70-75” from what I’ve heard. I believe Grand Haven is in the 85” range because you’re closer to the lakes! I can’t wait and am ready for our first snowfall! I’m a big Winter Wx enthusiasts who has a weather group chat on twitter and am always model watching and discussing! I love the beauty of winter and there is no sight more beautiful than the fresh snow falling from the sky! Can’t wait!! And ideas when we could get our first flakes? I’m thinking within the next 2 weeks, nothing accumulating because it’s been too warm, but I’d love to see some flakes flying around! Thanks guys!

What is the name of your Twitter group.?

Thanks 

Stunning images.  Here is a link for these images.  I shortened it.  You do have to refresh it for the latest images (or set it for refresh)
https://wtalk.co/JWQKBC69

Love your site.

It's hard to believe we are coming up on 5 years since the tornado. I still remember it like it was yesterday.

 

It looks like Joplin is planning a Disaster Recovery Summit on Thursday, May 19th and Friday May 20th.

 

Speakers will come from Greensburg, KS, Tuscaloosa, AL, Cedar Rapids, IA, Minot, ND, Moore, OK, Vilonia, AR, Pilger, NE. There's various breakout sessions covering disaster related topics.

 

Full agenda: http://www.joplinproud.com/joplin-disaster-recovery-summit/agenda/

 

 

Joplin Memorial Marathon is on the 21st.... A community picnic will be held Sunday the 22nd, along with Joplin High School graduation (creepy that it's on Sunday the 22nd, just like the tornado) and it'll all end with a Memorial Service for those lost in the tornado.

 

http://www.joplinproud.com/

Was thinking about you today.  Popped into the forum to see if this thread was still alive and well.  I see that it is.

I agree, it is hard to believe that it has been five years.  Hope you are doing well.

http://www.koamtv.com/story/22540302/pepsico-habitat-build-homes-in-joplin

Weather Brains had an interesting guest on recently.  Dr. Jason Persoff.  He recounted his experience in Joplin immediately after the tornado struck the city.

http://weatherbrains.com/weatherbrains/?p=2138

I've long since given up on the NWS path-cast system.. the storm vectors that are included in the warnings are almost always awful and a lot of the time the projected paths aren't very accurate. Really, do we need to rely on computer algorithms for this? I'm an on-air met and I have no trouble saying something different from the NWS if I know the NWS info is wrong and mine is right. It's our job to tell the public what's going to happen, not to tell the public what the NWS says is going to happen.

I agree 100%.

I have caught errors on this subject more than once. It is a concern. I am going to bring it up again with our local office. Especially after the answer I was given earlier this year.

I have tried them all - literally.

Midland 300!

You can program out all the products you do not want to tone alert for - among other features.

Would you go as far as to say the recommendations in the service assessment are not valid then?

Although I can't answer for him

I find the service assessments extremely valuable. I read them all - have them all printed out - keep them here on hand for review. I think the NWS, emergency management, media, and others read them - utilize them - take them for what they are. I learn something from each assessment and make changes accordingly. From talking with others - they do the same.

The process isn't perfect - it is evolving - will continue to evolve. The more we learn - the more we realize we have a lot to learn.

Unfortunately this book is being sold in many outlets - to the public. I am not sure how someone outside of the meteorological community would view this. It makes the NWS look incompetent.

I do agree with Mike on some of the topics brought up within the book. Some of them are the same concerns raised in the service assessments. Of course service assessments are not read by the general public.

If this publication was for internal purposes then I would view it as a severe lashing against the NWS, some in the media (although they are excused somewhat in the book because they were parroting what the NWS said), and emergency management officials who didn't blow the sirens properly.

For a publication like this to be sold to the public - not sure it is helpful or useful. It does strongly promote their private warning service. I am not sure how many times their private warning service was mentioned - but several times. Emphasis was added that they got the track right and the NWS got the track wrong.

Critique is important within the weather community - there are several private and semi-private forms to do just that. Critique can be important in moving everyone forward - improving products issued for the public - improving siren policies - other. However, I would agree with some others with the same sentiment that the book is a bit disappointing in the approach. When one group/agency makes another group/agency look like fools - with little mercy - then eyebrows are raised that there is some sort of agenda at hand. I am afraid this is what the book left me wondering.

The book raises some important points - valid concerns - items of interest. The approach, though, was disappointing. The NWS had a very difficult job that day - emergency management had a very difficult job that day - the manner in which the storm formed, exploded, evolved made for a perfect storm of sorts. Unfortunate and so was the outcome.

I think that one had a very limited area of EF4 damage. I want to say only one structure but not sure.

It was a very small area with EF4 damage.

The inability for humans to accept that, sometimes, life sucks and **** happens is at play more in this case than any other I can remember.

If is funny you should say that - because

One of the NWS meteorologists, from the St Louis, Missouri - National Weather Service Office, did a presentation (last fall - at the big NWA conference) in Birmingham, Alabama on their EF4 tornado event. She said that the reasons there were not more fatalities in the EF4 St Louis tornado was - wait for it and drum roll - LUCK

She had a list - but LUCK was, if I remember correctly, number 5 on the list.

This is what was on her slide presentation

Re: the whole issue with Galena. From what I've read, it takes a few minutes to generate a warning. The forecasters were probably still writing the warning when the 5:38 scan came out. Notice that there were only three minutes between the 2nd (5:39) and 3rd (5:42) SVS's. This may be due to the fact that the forecasters noticed that the couplet was closer to Joplin than it was to Galena. I think the important part is that the 5:39 SVS mentions the tornado is moving into Joplin. That should be enough to sound any on-air met's alarms. Furthermore, on-air mets should check the radars themselves and know what's going on. I haven't read the book, but again the title of it implies the warning system failed, which, IMO, it did not.

There was not a single tornado emergency issued -- the SVS's I posted were all the ones associated with Tornado Warning #31.

I think, in general, the timescales associated with this particular event (i.e. the time of evolution from doppler-warned to confirmed to particularly dangerous tornado) were much shorter than average, shorter than the radar period or warning-writing timescale.

I am not sure a tornado emergency would have mattered. Maybe for the on-air people? Unsure. We will never know.

Of course now we have the new warning system = Springfield is one of the offices using the new terminology that attempts to predict how much damage a tornado will or won't do. It would not have mattered in this event. It was too late - not to mention that I don't think hey had enough time.

I have seen some meteorologists that focus on "their idea" of where a storm should track and if radar is showing something different they still seem to not catch on. In school this is called tunnel-vision. I said it must be going northeast and it must be heading to town A B and C. By the time you realize it isn't happening as you expected then it is too late. Not saying that is what happened here - but the evidence stacked up by Mike in his book does suggest that concept. At least as a potential.

It is too bad there was such a delay in the tilt scans. Had they had the phased array radar then this would have likely ended a lot differently. This is where local radars - owned by television stations - can be of some value. It is too bad the NWS can't zero in on a storm and get faster updates.

Yeah I noticed that in that video and thought it was a bit of a fail on their part, and they also seemed to not be urgent enough regarding the wording initially about what was/is obviously a huge wedge on the ground...

Mike brings up that subject, as well.

Not sure the DOC allows me to post the logs - I have them. Just not sure if I can post them or not? They are interesting because they show a lot of communication about what is happening to the City of Joplin and before Joplin. From the logs there appears to a lot less confusion as to what is/was going on - at least when you compare then to the statements that were actually put out by the NWS for the public.