JBG

On 12/24/2023 at 8:57 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yes it would still be useful even if PV goes to other side because it promotes a -AO. When you have that in an El Niño, your chances for big storms drastically increase. 
 

As always, no guarantees it works out but also as always, you want as many variables in your favor as possible. 

Your lips to G-d's ears.

February 30, 2024.  Only kidding, thinking January 15, 2024.

52 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

CFS basically has the same look for December carrying into January. I've been pleased with the pattern so far, it's nice and wet. The mountains here are getting a ton of snow. The resorts have 2-4 foot bases at the moment.

We've had back-back wetter than average months for the first time since Jan-Apr 2019. The CFS basically has no skill until a day-two days before the new month starts. 

It's actually remarkable how little El Nino changes with time. Some of the El Ninos in the 1940s were absolutely brutally cold in Russia like this year, and very warm in the US like this year has been to date. Close to a literal recreation of the conditions that helped kill so many Nazis. 

 

I don't know. In my neck of the woods, the New York area, 1972-3 could not have been more different than 2009-10, even though both were cold-phase El Niños. 1982-3 and 2015-6 at least had one huge KU, unlike 1972-3 or 1997-8.

On 6/16/2023 at 9:38 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The strong el nino/high solar years are pretty split....1940, 1957 and 2002 were good, but 1972, 1982 and 1991, not so much.....looks like there were only two with a notable dearth of big east coast storms....1972 and 1991.

1972 had a couple; December 15, 1972, which IIRC hugged the coast, causing a changeover, and January 29, 1973 (same story). There were two biggies that plastered the Southeast, from Atlanta to Charleston to Wilmington (NC). There was one in mid-to-late March 1992. I don't remember if the "Storm of the Century" circa March 12, 1993 was during a Niño or it it was already neutral.

On 2/9/2023 at 11:43 PM, George001 said:

There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see anything near a +6 ONI, but waters that warm do often result in fairly powerful El Niños such as 2009-2010, 2002-2003, 1957-1958, 1972-1973, 1982-1983 etc.

Don't forget 2015-6 and 1972-3. 1982-3 may be similar though that was following a warm-neutral (right after the Great Pacific Shift) from mid-1979 through April 1982.

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Who got 6 inches? Alot of this area got close to a foot.

In Westchester County on the Connecticut line, we're lucky if we got six. More like four or five.

40 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Remember 83 like yesterday.  LFM was east of Hatteras.  Obs late morning had southeast wind at Hatteras.  High DP / moisture laden air mass being rammed into cold arctic dome.  Progress of snow northward was painfully slow.  Took 2-3 hours to get from Staten Island to Mid-Town Manhattan.  Once it started it came in like a wall.  Thunder snow lasted for hours.  Intense rates with large flakes. Storm was weak...made it to east of ACY and turned ene OTS.  Had 21" in Bayonne and that fell mostly in a 12 hour period.

Different setup than this for sure but was a classic nowcasting situation.

On February 11, 1983 I remember watching the slow advance from the law library on Vesey Street. I saw the curtain of snow envelope the Verrazano. I grabbed the subway to my office on 40th street where it barely started snowing about 30 minutes later. The edge of the snow really crawled.

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Sorry for your loss Joe

I know what is feels like to lose a parent. I was 24 when I lost my dad in 2012. He was only 52 years old.

Still tough for me today 

I "third" you. I lost my real Dad at 15, he was 47, in 1973. Fortunately it was from great to greater, but I lost my next Dad after almost 41 years knowing him and being his stepson my of the time in 2013.

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

I’m sorry for your loss

Sweet. And my condolences.

18 minutes ago, Byrdhousebv said:

A “Snowstorm/Sleep Warning”, is now in effect from 10:00PM EST, Thursday, 1-27-22, to 10:00AM Sunday, 10:00AM,1-30-22. Those impacted include all snow weenie followers of New York City Sub forum, American Weather.

Conditions: Model data presentations will create severe to extreme psychophysical responses to all in the affected subset. Mood swings and general sleep deprivation will be widespread. Those in the warning area are advised to take immediate steps to plan for the subject period. This includes scheduling specific time to achieve needed sleep, and logistic planning to assure adequate supplies of adult beverages and comfort food for the duration of the event.

Take head and plan appropriate action!

That's a keeper, and going out to my mailing list!

3 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I believe Doria in 70 or 71 hit the NNJ/NYC area as a strong TS.  

David in 1979 brought enough wind (gusts 60+) to cause a death in a Brooklyn factory when a window blew in on a worker. 

Doria may have made a landfall near NYC  while David was a fast moving transitioning extratropical/TS racing north inland after making landfall as a Hurricane down south.

You are quite right. I was referring to "Doria" as "Edith." Courtesy of my bad memory.

34 minutes ago, North and West said:

Question for you: One of the few non-anecdotal stats I I know from reading the boards for 20+ years is that it's tough to get 10+" of snow in NYC and points south with a +AO and +NAO.

There are obvious exceptions (March 1993) of course, but… Why would this be different?

TIA. Solely wondering out of curiosity.


.

What about February 1983?

On 1/26/2022 at 2:25 AM, LibertyBell said:

Wait a hurricane made landfall here in 1971?  I thought Belle in 1976 was the only hurricane landfall here in the 70s?  Did Agnes make landfall as a hurricane here too?

 

 

If I'm not mistaken both Edith and Agnes made landfall as high-impact tropical storms. Both had epic rains. A warm front spawned by Agnes had greater rain impact than Agnes' rain did directly in the New York City area. We had about 7-8" in Westchester from that, and another 3" or so from Agnes. This is just going off memory. A lot else was happening in my life on the day of the pre-Agnes storm, including a near-expulsion from High School. Agnes' impact in upstate New York and interior Pennsylvania was devastating. When I went to the Corning Glass Factory in August 1972 the ground floor was still inaccessible. When I went back with my family in April 2007 we saw the waterline. Too bad I don't have a picture.

Edith was mostly a very rainy windstorm. Also, Edith in an indirect was worsened the impact of Agnes. Despite the prevailing La Niña (which ended in the Spring of 1972) the months after Agnes, including especially late spring of 1972 left the East so waterlogged as to really increase Agnes' flooding potential.

On 1/19/2022 at 7:16 AM, LibertyBell said:

1973-74 and 1974-75 seem to be okay but outside of those, some very lackluster winters (and lackluster tropical seasons too).

 

There was nothing at all lackluster about 1977-8 (HECS in early February and important event in late January) or 1978-9 (one of the biggest cold waves in history capped off by a HECS on President's Day 1979, usually known as PD I, not be be confused with PD II in 2003). Even 1970-1 had a decent event New Year's Eve, and 1971-2 had a storm that gave mixed precip to NYC but crushed the Appalachians. Ithaca had its all-time record of 26" (I think) inches. All those aside, aside from notable cold waves in January 1970, January 1971, and December 1976-January 1977 the 1970's were nothing to write home about. Hurricane Edith (1971) and Belle (1976) did hit the metro area.

On 1/16/2022 at 4:05 AM, LibertyBell said:

the ironic thing is if you go by the snowfall totals from 1973-74 it doesn't stand out, but going by local reports, it was pretty good compared to the era.

Quite true. It was a strong La Niña. The winters before, 1971-2 and 1972-3 were notoriously "unsnowy." The numbers look better for 1971-2 but almost all were front loaders with rain washaways. 1974-5 had a 10" storm in early February and a surprise 6" in late March with a forecast changeover that largely busted. 1975-6, 1976-7 and  1979-80 were total busts. The 1980's had similar patterns. It wasn't really until "the storm of the century" in mid-March 1993 did we start getting decent winters. 1993-4 and 1995-6 were historic. From then on, every few winters were decent. But the 1970s and 1980s; the less said about them the better.

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Jan 1994 had 2" of ice.

How long was the 12/73 event?  over 24 hours of all freezing rain?

Just about. The snow started at about noon, kicked over to ZR around 2:30-3:00 p.m. and rained heavily for a while, at 23°-27°, then tapered off to freezing drizzle around 10:00 a.m. the next day, and ended as a tiny amount of snow, really flurries. If you want to check the news there was a Jets game that day and a truck plunged through the decking of the overhead West Side Highway, causing its permanent closure and ultimate demolition. Ironically DC stayed all snow and got something like 6"-8", but I was in suburban New York, not there.

5 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM basically says you have to be in the catskills to get more than an inch of snow. What a waste of cold air region wide. I can't remember an airmass this cold where there wasn't at least some front end snow for a large part of the subforum.   

December 1973 had that. 3" ice (literally skate-able in the backyard (I was in high school and skated between mine and a friend/neighbor's yards the day after), then three days in the teens-low twenties, then rain with no snow to start.

7 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

plenty of time to go-I remember thinking 12-13 was going to be horrid but then we got monsters in Feb and Mar

Ditto 2006-7. November 7, 2012 wasn't bad though.

Just got a new pair of cross-country ski boots; wait till next year I guess.

On 8/16/2021 at 5:32 PM, LibertyBell said:

the dry heat was a real blessing

 

The early July and the August/September heat waves were dry. The late July one, not so much. And this summer's warmth (very little heat) were humid.

On 8/8/2021 at 2:10 PM, LibertyBell said:

That sensor went bad for 2010 lol.  I know JFK had 10 95 degree days in 2010.  Do you have the JFK list too?

 

From my memory eight sounds about right. We had the 100+ wave in early July, another intensely hot spell in late July and another in late August/early September.

43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What made years like 1980, 1991 and 1993 so hot? 1983 which was the hottest here until 2010 was I understand because of a significant la nina just like 2010 was?

1980s heat had some amazing longevity.

From what I remember Joseph D'Aleo has said, 1980 and 1991 were "failed El Niños." 1993 was a crumbling El Niño leading to a "cold-neutral" for 1993-4, which is short of a La Niña. I personally think the trend, i.e. with cooling in Niñ0 is more important than the actual state. For example 1973 and 2010 were rapid plunges from fairly significant El Niños to significant La Niñas, as was one summer we haven't discussed, 1970. 1970 was a drop, not plunge, from a moderate El Niño to a moderate La Niña. During periods when the Pacific is warming, though still at Niña levels the summers are not back-to-back hot. Examples are 1974, 1984 and 2008. Niño 3.4 temperatures were quite "droppy" during 1980, though not to Niña levels.

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Right and also that horrendous power outage in 1977, which was timed right around that big heatwave.

2002 was wall to wall hot, beginning in April and lasting through September.  Droughty too, I remember yellow grass here.

Those were the el nino exceptions.  I think 1994 was too, but early on.  It started out as hot as 1993 was but then it cooled off later on, except Philly had a historically hot summer like the previous year.

I believe 1993 was the hottest summer out of the 90s, three straight days above 100 and a 10 day super heatwave.

 

2002 did not, from what I remember, have a hot September. I remember August being hot, until a rainy and cool last week. I agree with you about April, late June, July and most of August. 1994 was quite hot through the end of July; as if the weather G-ds had access to a calendar. The cooldown actually signaled the 1994-5 El Niño, and 1996's cool summer presaged the super El Niño of 1997-8. Second La Niña summers are also frequently hot in May or early June, cool thereafter. Examples of this are 1974, 1984, 1989 (though with one July and one September heat wave), 1990, 2000 (brrrr), and 2008 (almost a match with 1925 and 1984 for the big June heat wave). 2011 kept the heat going a while longer than most second-summer La Niñas. 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

2010 was much hotter than 1995, didn't even get to 100 at JFK in 1995.

 

1995 had a few hot days in advance of a back-door cold front in July, and a substantially above-normal August and early September.

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

weird that it had the hottest week in NYC history and then all of a sudden the heat went away?

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But weren't there three 100+ days out of 4 in 1977? Thats amazing.

 

1977 was one of those rare El Niño summers with big heat. 2002 is the only other one I can think of.  El Niño is usually a cool signal for summers. Think 1969 (one four-day heat wave, a fair number of individual hot days but lots of cool weather and rain), 1972 (June and early-mid August very cool though July and September each had hot weeks), 1979 (one three-day heat wave in May), 1982 (one very hot week in July, otherwise cool), 1992 (historically cool, three-day waves in May and July, with some cooling help from Pinatubo), 2003, 2004, and 2009 (June and July historically cool, three-day heat waves in April and August). 1977 was in many ways a lot like 1969 and 1982, just with a bigger temperature spike. That is why we remember 1977 as a hot summer even though it really wasn't.