I've now realised that what has happened is that , post 07' ,I was keeping an eye out for the return of such extreme forcings ( as we saw in 2007?) to cause us to see another record low 'step down' in ice extent/area/volume, but in reality the pack was becoming conditioned to see '07' scale losses in an 'average summer'?
But this year is not setting up to be 'an average summer' is it?
With us still seeing a 'perfect melt storm-esque' synoptic hammering the ice we appear to be building melt momentum for at least record low sea ice territory if not worse?
Forecasts show lots of heat , from the land masses, flowing over sectors of the basin these coming 10 days and this is coupled with peak insolation for the rest of the pack sitting under HP domination?
By months end , with Hudson & Baffin then in play, we will be seeing big daily losses and an ever more opened pack ( with plenty of 'dark water' to capture the suns energy) in time for 'peak melt'
If ,by Aug, we see home grown cyclones in the basin then the 'bottom melt' phase of the season will be devastating considering the warmth in the waters the ice will be tossed around in as the lows pass over.
We'll see what tRump & co. have to say if we do end on a disastrous low figure this year & see even more energy flood the Arctic atmosphere as the basin tries to prepare for re-freeze.