TerryM
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Everything posted by TerryM
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Over the last 25 yrs atmospheric methane appears to have increased at a rate of about 6 ppb/yr. and the 400Mb charts we have seem to show more and more of this increase is emanating from Arctic regions. Whether this is due to present Arctic warming or is a function of a heat pulse dating back to the inundation of the area 8k BP may not yet be settled, but the people actually in the field are warning that the lid could blow at any time. I think that HIPPO and the 400Mb charts are indicating that CH4 is not mixing as rapidly in the atmosphere as had been predicted and I assume that part of the recent extreme Arctic temperatures is due to CH4 "plumes". As long as these are confined to the most northern regions they have to add to further loss of ice coverage, the heating of the ocean and further methane releases. If the Arctic vortex should weaken and these "plumes" escape further south there are areas that would be devastated by temperatures 15-20C above normal. Fortunately at present the winter months seem by far the most severely effected.
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CSt68 This particular thread is dealing with methane emissions that may or may not be increasing with or without man's assistance. You are correct re. diesel autos, but wish you would move your argument to a more appropriate thread. Perhaps the one regarding natural vs man made warming. Thanks
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Phillip The Barrow flasks have indeed been suspect since the discrepancy was first noted by Mathesda. AIR seems to be showing large emissions from iced over areas of the Arctic with much smaller seeps from ice free zones. I wonder if the bugs that eat methane also require oxygen to do their thing, and that the fairly anaerobic conditions under the ice shut them down. If so loosing the ice cover could retard atmospheric CH4 while at the same time allowing greater amounts to be released at the sea floor due to wave action and heating of the water column. In this case a small atmospheric CO2 rise might be noted as well as increased oceanic acidification - not a great result, but easier to deal with than catastrophic warming. I'm awaiting the April release of S&S's report, and hoping.
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I posted this link back on page 5, but perhaps it's relevant at this stage of the discussion. http://www.polarresearch.net/index.php/polar/article/view/6425/html_150 Talks about the lower regions of the Lapev Sea being heated 3C by a combination of albedo, and storm conditions due to lessened ice cover. When coupled with S&S's findings that permafrost becomes permeable at temperatures much lower than previously believed, it seems to provide a rational for the observations, and a warning of things to come if the ice continues to abate. The spike upward in early 2008 shown on Friv's anomaly charts corresponds to the time that Semiletov began noting signs of dangerous emissions in the ESAS. BTW Verg - Thanks for doing something with the AIR graphics, I think they will help guide the discussion.
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Don't see the drop looking at a composite.
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The progression through the months is also interesting, and not what I would have expected, Far more emissions during colder months. Could solar influences on methane chomping algae be having an influence?
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ftp://asl.umbc.edu/pub/yurganov/methane/MAPS/NH/ARCTpolar2006.11._AIRS_CH4_400.jpg ftp://asl.umbc.edu/pub/yurganov/methane/MAPS/NH/ARCTpolar2008.11._AIRS_CH4_400.jpg ftp://asl.umbc.edu/pub/yurganov/methane/MAPS/NH/ARCTpolar2011.11._AIRS_CH4_400.jpg Perhaps someone more familiar than I at shrinking images can post these. They show Northern Hemisphere CH4 for November in 2006, 2008 and 2011
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Summer decreases through insolation & plant growth certainly makes sense. I know this is old news - but I for one was not aware that methane venting from shallow Antarctic Seas was being investigated. http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100903/full/news.2010.442.html I haven't been able to locate any newer info on the venture, but possibly someone fluent in Spanish will have better luck. The postulation about seal mortality being tied to methane releases could tie into recent Arctic die offs.
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Sorry - pasted wrong graph
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I'm not sure. This seasonal chart seems to be showing both CO2 & CH4 peaking during freeze -up. Does not include the spikes of course. Wonder if it could have anything to do with local residential heating during winter months?
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Verg Good point re longer data sets - Could the collapse of the USSR play a role in the readings?
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Thanks for the link - I'd not noticed that page. The methane spikes shown seem to increase over time with a large seasonal signal more or less in sync with CO2. Any idea when the "Methane Tracker" will be available?
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Read up on the Permian Extinction.
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Good news indeed - I confess I had feared a Monnet event, where a researcher faced huge pressure to change his findings.
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Superb!
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Siberian Seas Seethe (Alliteration Always Advances An Agenda)
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Both articles quoted Tim Minshall saying that "T he last time, when methane was raised in huge quantities on the surface planet Earth is just coming out of the last ice age about 15,000 years ago." Would he be referring to the end of the Younger Dryas, when IIRC Greenland experienced a 10C raise in a 10 year period?
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Good eye!! Something is indeed amiss The new data using 2010/2011 actually shows the average CH4 dropping over the course of the year - something belied by all other monitoring stations.
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What data are you skeptical about? You agree that the plumes are real. Do you doubt the validity of the Barrow testing procedures? How else would you explain the high readings?
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A link to show high temperature clathrate response. http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1200/is_n16_v150/ai_18795944/
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How 'bout this one - from a time a little closer to the relevant period? The point is that all Arctic stations could not be expected to experience the anomalous readings - and the fact that one did is enough to verify the observations. I'd assume that the observations of the plumes plus the observations of ocean acidification off Barrow plus the observed arctic 'hot spots' with temperatures >10C above normal would be enough to convince any fair minded person that we have a problem. The fact that the Kara Sea is not frozen over when we are passed the solstice may also add some weight to the argument. I watched the very late thaw of Foxe Basin this last season with interest, this is another shallow area that may be out gassing, possibly at a high enough rate to slow ice melt by freshening and cooling the waters due to clathrate breakdown. The waters there are known to be brown in color, although currents are not particularly strong. Doubt if Harper's government will do anything to investigate, but if someone does I'd be interested in the results.
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Very good - see the maps are relevant! Now go back to a date more in keeping with time being discussed and see if your theory still holds. - but wait till you're off work - boss could get nasty.
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Except to answer your questions. You seem to be implying that the methane plume - which has been observed -Does not exist because only one of the three Arctic stations (the other two being up wind of the event) did not record it. Have I stated your position correctly?
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Thank you Trying to understand some new data before attacking it is a sign of progress. Now on with the conversation. Do you find S&S's research to be alarming?
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What questions? If you don't understand what the map represents how can you pose legitimate questions?
