Vergent
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Posts posted by Vergent
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The central arctic farted.
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Atmospheric observations of Arctic Ocean methane emissions up to 82° north
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v5/n5/full/ngeo1452.html
Old news, but its the peer reviewed paper.
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So it is now leaking out of the Beaufort side as well.
This almost doubles the area of continental shelf with destabilized hydrates. Would this double the S&S warning of a possible 50GT release to a possible 100GT release? Wasn't that the worst case scenario that was discussed? The issue is not the amount, but rather the time frame. The rate of release. If it takes place over a couple hundred years, it would only amount to a watt or so of climate forcing. But if there were a decade time frame it would be 5-10W/m^2. The albedo feedback would add many more watts to that in the northern hemisphere.
The risk we area taking in inaction is enormous.
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According to some other posters in this thread, nothing about this is funny. When do you think a catastrophic climatic calamity could commence wrt CH4?
The language used is for dramatic effect and exposes the OP for the alarmist he is. It's fine with me, I don't buy into the CH4 alarmism, the thread title discredits the concern to many folks and it's chalked up to alarmism. So I hope the title stays I just like pointing out how absurd it is and how statements like that hurt the cause of people concerned about CH4.
we consider release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of hydrate storage as highly
possible for abrupt release at any time. That may cause 12-times increase of modern
atmospheric methane burden with consequent catastrophic greenhouse warming.
http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU2008/01526/EGU2008-A-01526.pdf
This is from the article you cited. Why do you keep asking questions you have already answered?
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Have you researched the effect of the sudden release of up to 1,400Gt of CH4?
I apologize for not looking it up myself, but I'm distracted by a large tax problem that requires my attention between now and the end of the month.
Terry
Methane jumps up to 700ppm, with radiative forcing of 16w/m^2
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It's been stated in the monstrosity of a thread that we are talking about a timescale of thousands of years not a 100 years for a "large portion" to be released. The accepted numbers are 50Gt of the 1,400Gt is subject to sudden release. The amount of warming that would be necessary for "a large portion" to be released would take many centuries to millenniums. Wake me up when the world is ending when a catastrophic climatic calamity commences.
Since the area of geological disjunctives (fault zones, tectonically and seismically
active areas) within the Siberian Arctic shelf composes not less than 1-2% of the total
area and area of open taliks (area of melt through permafrost), acting as a pathway for
methane escape within the Siberian Arctic shelf reaches up to 5-10% of the total area,
we consider release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of hydrate storage as highly
possible for abrupt release at any time. That may cause 12-times increase of modern
atmospheric methane burden with consequent catastrophic greenhouse warming.
From the paper you link to. Do you actually ever read anything? This paper is from 2008. The first ebullition was observed in 2009, patches tens of meters in diameter. In 2011, they observe patches over a kilometer across, a 2,500 fold increase in area. Do you have some sort of crystal ball that tells you a 50GT release is not starting?
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Peer reviewed papers please.
Some of you (not you in particular) scream about the peer review process. You won't find serious scientists who believe the ESAS is on the verge of a catastrophic methane release. We are thousands of years away from such an event if it ever does happen.
Please back this statement up with some facts, or peer reviewed papers. And who said that the majority of the arctic methane was going to be released? An abrupt 1% release would be devastating. S&S have stated that a 50GT release is possible. That would look like this:
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Peer reviewed papers please.
Some of you (not you in particular) scream about the peer review process. You won't find serious scientists who believe the ESAS is on the verge of a catastrophic methane release. We are thousands of years away from such an event if it ever does happen.
K Miller, D Lipson… - AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, 2011 - adsabs.harvard.edu
Abstract Arctic wetlands release significant volumes of methane, a greenhouse gas 25 times
more potent than CO2, to the atmosphere. However, the mechanisms governing methane
emissions are not fully understood. This research asks the following two questions: Will ...
J Greinert, T Treude - EGU General Assembly 2010, held 2- …, 2010 - adsabs.harvard.edu
Abstract The Arctic is a key area in our warming world as massive releases of terrestrial and
oceanic methane could increase atmospheric methane concentrations much faster than
expected. The vast Arctic shelf might become a major emitter of methane in the future. ...
EG Nisbet, RE Fisher, D Lowry… - AGU Fall Meeting …, 2011 - adsabs.harvard.edu
Abstract Arctic and boreal methane emissions come from various sources, most of which will
respond strongly and rapidly both to year-on-year meteorological variations and to
sustained climate warming. These sources, which may have played a major role both in ...
Strong atmospheric chemistry feedback to climate warming from Arctic methane emissions
ISA Isaksen, M Gauss, G Myhre… - 2011 - darchive.mblwhoilibrary.org
The magnitude and feedbacks of future methane release from the Arctic region are
unknown. Despite limited documentation of potential future releases associated with
thawing permafrost and degassing methane hydrates, the large potential for future ...
Cited by 3 - Related articles - All 11 versions
Rising Arctic Ocean temperatures cause gas hydrate destabilization and ocean acidification
LH Rüpke, A Biastoch, T Treude, U Riebesell… - 2012 - eprints.ifm-geomar.de
... Here we present the results of a recent comprehensive study of the future fate of Arctic methane
hydrates [5]. Our multi-disciplinary analysis provides a closer look into regional developments
of submarine Arctic gas hydrate deposits under future global warming scenarios and ...
[PDF] Arctic methane sources: Isotopic evidence for atmospheric inputs
RE Fisher, S Sriskantharajah, D Lowry… - Geophysical …, 2011 - zardoz.nilu.no
[1] By comparison of the methane mixing ratio and the carbon isotope ratio (d13CCH4) in
Arctic air with regional background, the incremental input of CH4 in an air parcel and the
source d13CCH4 signature can be determined. Using this technique the bulk Arctic CH4 ...
Related articles - View as HTML - All 8 versions
High methane flux from an arctic floodplain (Indigirka lowlands, eastern Siberia)
J Van Huissteden, TC Maximov… - Journal of geophysical …, 2005 - europa.agu.org
Methane fluxes from arctic tundra soils on a river terrace and floodplain in northeastern
Siberia, measured with flux chambers, show a high spatial variability. The methane fluxes on
the river terrace compare well with fluxes reported in other studies on tundra methane ...
Cited by 31 - Related articles - BL Direct - All 7 versions
Microbial perspectives of methane fluxes from melting permafrost
D Wagner - 2009 - epic.awi.de
... This hampers prediction of the effects of climate warming on arctic methane fluxes, in particular
when these predictions are based on models that do not take into account the specific nature
of microbial populations in permafrost soils and sediments. ...
J Nissen - AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, 2011 - adsabs.harvard.edu
Abstract This is a report from a workshop especially convened in order to identify means to
reduce the threat of methane being emitted from sources in the Arctic in such quantities as to
have a major impact on global warming. Major factors in the assessment of this threat are ...
Extensive methane venting to the atmosphere from sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf
N Shakhova, I Semiletov, A Salyuk, V Yusupov… - Science, 2010 - sciencemag.org
Abstract Remobilization to the atmosphere of only a small fraction of the methane held in
East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) sediments could trigger abrupt climate warming, yet it is
believed that sub-sea permafrost acts as a lid to keep this shallow methane reservoir in ...
Cited by 82 - Related articles - All 22 versions
http://scholar.googl...%2C5&as_sdtp=on
Is that enough or do you want more?
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This is not bad.
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We seam to have missed discussing this.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-currier/methane-in-the-twilight-z_2_b_1256215.html
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I've heard speculation that the anomalous conditions in the Kara - Barents Sea area are a result of low albedo conditions due to low ice coverage.
How would a lowering of albedo in the Arctic winter have this effect? A high albedo surface blocks radiation both ways so in Arctic summer a high albedo surface - snow or ice - reflects much of the solar energy back up. away from the surface. In Arctic winter a high albedo surface retains more heat - radiating less of it up into the atmosphere.
If the Kara/Barents area is experiencing lower albedo (open water), it's radiating more - not less heat into the atmosphere. Only when insolation increases around the equinox will lower albedo result in higher surface temperatures.
If CH4 is effectively blanketing the surface, leaving no escape for the heat, we might see ice losses even during Arctic Winter.
The energy is emitted from the surface then absorbed by GHG. It is then re-emitted in a random direction, half of which are down. If it hits a high albedo, it is reflected with another chance to escape into the universe. If it hits low albedo it is re-absorbed by the surface. You have lived up north, in winter, when it gets cloudy it warms up. On clear nights, temperatures drop rapidly. The clouds act in the same way as GHG.
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No, that is such an insignificant effect.
http://www.nature.com/ismej/journal/v4/n10/full/ismej201057a.html
It only needs to be a few watts/M^2 to equal the green house effect locally. Something is melting the ice in the Kara.
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By all accounts the vast majority of methane from these vents goes into solution, where it is metabolized by bacteria. Some energy is released immediatly and some when it is eaten or rots. So, methane should be contributing to warming the arctic, through it's chemical energy.
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An interesting weather site for the Barents Sea
http://www.barentspo...mapId=3〈=en
Temps seem so far above normal that, at the risk of a nasty gash from Occam's blade, I'd like to propose that CH4 may be involved. I had assumed that the lack of insolation in polar winters would render any greenhouse effect moot, having conveniently forgotten that the heat already trapped beneath the atmospheric blanket, augmented by heat transported north via oceanic currents, would be unable to escape and could then produce anomalies such as we are witnessing.
I'm invoking CH4 as a local addition to CO2 because I feel that if this amount of blanketing was present throughout the atmosphere we would already be cooked. The recent AIRS maps as well as last years HIPPO studies seem to show that Arctic CH4 is still to a large degree, loitering in the upper latitudes.
I hope that someone can point out the error of my ways and assure me that this is not what is happening.
The percentage change is small so far. so I would suspect the gulf stream.
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Do you see the sporadic pixels that aren't 1870+ interlace in there. That's why this is just silly.
AND ALL THE METHANE IS JUST HANGING OUT AT 400Mb FOR SPRING BRAKE?
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wtf?
btw still a tiny increase
And exactly how do you know that? 90% of the arctic and Siberia are in the 1870+ category. You seem to be assuming that 1870+ = 1870.
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The SOLAS regulations pertaining to muster drills are fairly short and straightforward. They require that the drill take place within 24 hours of embarkation. The regulations differentiate between a muster and a "safety briefing." According to SOLAS rules, whenever new passengers embark, a safety briefing must be held "immediately before sailing, or immediately after sailing," consisting of at least a PA announcement. This may be supplemented with other info -- by written materials contained within each cabin, for instance. Regulations require that the safety briefing provides "clear instructions" that "detail the actions each person on board should follow in the event of an emergency." But a muster, where passengers are physically assembled, is required only within 24 hours of sailing. (In Concordia's case, the muster drill was scheduled to take place after additional passengers boarded on Day 2 in Savona, Italy, which would have been within the required 24-hour window.)
As for life jackets, the rules don't specifically say that passengers must don them during the drills -- but they must be shown how to put them on.
In recent years, lines with bigger ships, including Royal Caribbean and Carnival, have concluded that moving upward of 5,000 passengers, outfitted in bulky life jackets, to their muster stations had become unmanageable. These lines have instituted a new version of the muster drill. According to Bud Darr, director of environmental and health programs for the Cruise Line International Association (CLIA), a membership organization that represents the major cruise lines, passengers now assemble in large public rooms, instead of on the open decks, where they await further instructions.
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This is not good.
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Verg
The study seems to be relating to permafrost releases if "remedial steps" are taken to lessen Arctic warming.
Our
results also suggest that mitigation action in line with the
lower scenario RCP3-PD could contain Arctic temperature
increase sufficiently that thawing of the permafrost area is
limited to 9–23
It's S&S's observations that scare the bejesus out of me.
If this turns into an emergency, the ice losses can be reversed quickly by keeping the pacific waters out of the arctic, eliminating 1/3 of the melt.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/BS2007Heat.html
The problem is, we have opened Pandora's box.
http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2011/12/50-doomiest-graphs-of-2011.html
As a species, we haven't realized it yet.
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For lower scenarios, e.g. the mitigation scenario RCP3-
PD, our results suggest that future warming is unlikely to
increase Arctic temperatures enough to release a large fraction
of the carbon stored in permafrost soils, although up to
22% could be thawed already by 2100. If strong mitigation
of emissions is pursued, it seems still possible to prevent the
release of large fractions of this permafrost carbon over the
coming centuries.
http://www.biogeosci...-9-649-2012.pdf
Hope they are right, but every model so far under predicts the arctic warming.
This would not be bad.
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REBUTTAL: DAVID ARCHER WRONG TO DISMISS CONCERN
ABOUT POTENTIAL METHANE RUNAWAY IN ARCTIC:
Why This Threat Is Real and the Imperative to Exercise
the Precautionary Principle When the Stakes Are This High
http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/2012/01/gary-housers-rebuttal-realclimates.html
Sorry, I posted the wrong link before.
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By the way, the methane concentration Y-axis on the previous post is a bit confusing to me, is it just 0.5 -3.0 parts per billion? That's 1000 times too small. Will be interesting to see the latest hourly data as well.
The in-sito data is not working for this year yet. I thing the graph rescaled to ppm because the data went over 2000, the label didn't change, is all.
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Has it been mentioned yet this calculator has a thread on RealClimate?
http://www.realclima...ere/#more-10545
By the way, the methane concentration Y-axis on the previous post is a bit confusing to me, is it just 0.5 -3.0 parts per billion? That's 1000 times too small. Will be interesting to see the latest hourly data as well.
Thanks for pointing that out. There is a good discussion there about this model.
The current article is about this cartoon explanation of weather vs climate, should be required viewing for this forum.
This is not good.
in Climate Change
Posted
Geologic methane seeps along boundaries of Arctic permafrost thaw and melting glaciers
http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1480.html