mcalvert

Going back to the wording issue ("Emergency" vs. "Warning", "Large, Violent Tornado" vs. "Tornado reported", etc.), I sometimes wonder if our "pinpoint" warnings don't sometimes actually cause problems. The issue with Hurricane Charley was that it both intensified rapidly AND it took a path that was on the eastern extent of the official NHC track, which was oriented along a long stretch of north-south coast which meant that a 1 degree shift in bearing could produce a 30 to 40 mile shift in landfall even when only a couple of hours offshore. Residents of Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda made the assumption that the hurricane would follow the centerline trajectory of the forecast track and let their guard down. They also were expecting a low-end category 2 storm instead of an intensifying category 4. When both forecast trajectory and intensity changed rapidly just before landfall, they couldn't adjust in time to take adequate precautions. When I was young, there was no doppler radar and we often didn't get tornado warnings until one was on the ground. So, if severe storms were forecast and approaching, my family sat or slept in a steel-reinforced concrete storm shelter until the storms were past. We didn't take chances at all because we lived along a well-known local tornado alley. Eventually, my parents began watching the television and monitoring the radars online until it appeared that a doppler-indicated couplet was nearby and aiming for them before they took cover. This almost cost them a few years ago. They were watching wall-to-wall coverage and the couplet appeared that it would go well north of them, so my dad told my mother that it was going to miss them. However, the storm cycled and the tornado reformed almost on top of them. My father heard the met on air say that the circulation appeared to be reforming to the south and he saw the wall cloud pass over. It later touched down and caused some damage. He ran a cable down to his storm cellar a few days later and he now watches the wall-to-wall from there during tornado warnings.