ApacheTrout

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most everyone installs before Mem Day weekend. It’s one more thing to check off the list of things to get done and it’s a huge ordeal . Once they’re in , you can relax knowing when the HHH comes you are ready to roll. You get those clowns that install after the house is 80 with high dews and they’re sweating and angry. 

And then the rest of the day is ruined, they kick their dogs, yell at old ladies walking on the sidewalk, and knock things off the shelves at the grocery store.

My goodness, the adversity one faces in life when faced with HHH.  

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Man. Not 16 hours ago we were promised 2 straight weeks of COC k and just had to get thru yesterday. Pouring rain and 53. Ouch 

World class double down deflection idiocy.

0.83 inches of rain yesterday.

As miserable as yesterday was, I'll take this weather over last year's just about any time.  For comparison:

April 2018, 4.46 inches
May 2018: 1.07 inches, BTV temp departure: +5.9F

April 2019: 4.71 inches
May 2019: 4.90 inches, BTV temp departure: -1.8F
 

The dry and warm 2018 led into an extended drought, with my area receiving only 3 inches of rain in June and again in July, and only 2.66 inches in August.  That was rough.

Tough, nasty day for working outdoors.  Thoroughly soaked, and the chill landed like punch in the gut.  0.75 inches of rain, now sitting at 47°F.  Thankfully, this is short term.

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Fish AND I didn’t do well for this week no doubt. But the cold BN calls from others aren’t working out either. Month finishes slightly AN and other than today it’s a mild to warm week. And you get 3 more good rain events which you like. So everyone’s a winner 

Edit, see above.  Also, why deflect (especially when it's another easily disproved claim)?  Just own up to a blown wishcast and move on.  You wouldn't get trolled so much and the forum would be a little more pleasant.

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It all depends on the pattern really. Like the pattern we're in now...no way would I be comfortable with putting out a forecast for 5-6 days...let alone 10. If you're under a ridge or something that isn't going anywhere then forecasting like 8-10 days out probably will be quite accurate. 

Where I grew up in Southern California, the mets could have issued fully accurate 4-month precip forecasts (zero rain) and 80% accurate temp forecasts (80-90F). Here, even with a seemingly stable pattern, I wouldn't bet any money on anything past day 4.  Too many factors at play, with weather systems coming from seemingly all the cardinal points.

Doesn't this site have moderators?  A couple of deleted posts and banned users would do wonders.

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We had a tornado in my town last October

I guess peak season now extends into October?

October through April = no tornadoes

May through September = max1-2 tornadoes per New England state, many years zero.

 Woah, I had no idea we were in deep tornado season.

Go with AN against climo, and less than for any hyperbole.  That attention getting stuff seldom pans out.

23 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

Heavy, heavy black flies here, and they're starting to bite. It's pretty much impossible to be outside at all and 100% deet is useless against them. They get in your eyes, nose, mouth, and ears. 

After a cloudy, damp start we torched up to 75° F under partly cloudy skies. Little yellow-green leaves are finally beginning to pop out on the trees.

We had to set up a large fan at our work station at my nursery last week.  The swarms seemed biblical.  The stiff breeze knocked them back.

Hard to argue with pictures.  And you bear a remarkable and uncanny resemblance to a Soviet stud muffin, so I really wouldn't dare argue with you at all. 

1 hour ago, klw said:

It is not covered in AT's post, but I also like the odds of our leaves changing color here in NNE in late September into mid-October.

Agree.  If you have hardcore science to back it up, all the better. But gut feelings count for so much ‘round here, so that’s good, too.

46 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Good to see that you have "snow chances" noted for November and December.  Pretty bold call right there.

Normally, I bet in favor of AN temps, but not this fall.  The AN temps and rain start on Dec 24, too late to affect the period's overall meme.

33 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

I see you're really going out on a limb with that summer forecast. Good luck!!!

Thank you.  It took a lot of hard work, and I'm proud of not giving up when things were most dire.  Here's a bit more explanation:

In Depth Temperature Analysis

If you look closely, you can see that the mean high temp line goes through each of the boxes differently:

The Warming Up Period (AKA Deep Summer/Too Late to Install): About Normal

Greatest Chance for HHH Period: Slightly Cooler than Normal.  We'll still experience routine calls for Epic HHH, but it ain't happening.  Lots of the last H, but very little of the first two.

The Cooling Off Period: Below Normal

Snow Chances Epoch: Well Below Normal

Gonna Be Wet - Get Over It

As for precipitation: Wet.  Damp.  Borderline moldy.  Maybe three consecutive days of uninterrupted sunshine in July (the 5th, 6th, and 7th) and definitely sunny and dry the  entire week of August 11.  But's that all we can expect.  Oh, and flood insurance policies should be renewed prior to September 23.  Widespread flooding.  Coastal erosion.  Permanent Mean Sea Level increase of 60 mm.

After consulting various indices, anagrams, the Farmer's Almanac, Twitter, and every predictive animal and insect, this is what I've come up with for the remainder of the year.  The r2 value approaches 1, and the 95% CI is very small, so I’m feeling very confident in this.

56 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sustained summer is far, far away. Of course one or two days tickling 80 past the 15th and the dewy ditty team will be pumping their little man boobs.

What do you mean?  We are in peak summer right now.  With 200% leaf out and window units installed last week.

This place used to discuss weather in the Discussion thread.

Otter Creek at Center Rutland is currently in moderate flood stage at 10.42 feet.  This is the highest stage since Irene produced an amazing 17.2 feet crest in August 2011.

1.13 inches of rain, with a decent round of thunderstorms during the night.  Much more rain fell in Rutland County, especially the western side, with many reports of 2.5 inches or more.  Poultney takes the cake right now, with 2.92 inches via a CoCoRaHs station. 

Otter Creek is going to be well over its banks.  The swamps of Pittsford, Brandon, Sudbury, and Cornwall are going to turn into expansive lakes for the two weeks.

8 hours ago, mreaves said:

Sort of the story all across NNE. There are pockets of poverty across the entire area that get somewhat masked by being basically in the backyard of some of the wealthiest people in the world. I’d like to think we do a bit better than some areas of the country but there can still be some stark differences. 

Same story here in Addison and Rutland counties, especially with the lakes and at the resorts. You get people scrambling to make a living, a lot of Section 8 housing in communities such as Fair Haven, and then families with 2nd and 3rd homes on Bomoseen, Lake St. Catherine, and Champlain, with $75k trucks pulling $60k bass boats.  The disparities are stark and tough, especially when you see friends listed in the annual Town Report as delinquent on taxes.  Ouch.

23 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Let's knock 'em down.

Doesn't take much this time of year with a saturated ground, but also the trees are getting heavier as they're sucking up all the water getting ready to bud. top heavy. 

The buds or leaves on a tree add virtually nothing to the weight of the tree.

It flipped to snow here around 6 am, and there's a quick inch on the ground now.  32F.

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely weaker sig, but I expect it to change. It's certainly far from a lock...hopefully people aren't locking it. Until then, we melt.

I'm locking it it.  Massive destruction everywhere.  Ice storm, fer sure.  We blizzard.  We snow.  We rain.   It's all the weather.  I will tell all my friends and hype.  I will start thread.  Hype.  Hype.  And then hype some more.  GFS will own the Euro.  Euro is king.  GFS is useless and will cave on schedule.  It's all the feels.  I am expert.

15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We need a poll of the % of folks reading tips post in their entirety....

I do.  Sure, they're dense, but it's part of why I come to the board.  Otherwise the discussion thread's 90% posts by the southern NEs whining about the crap winter down there.  The amazing and wonderful 2015 winter has developed into a sense of entitlement.