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Memphis Weather

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    STS Alpha

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Just now, dan11295 said:

    Shocked they bothered naming this....literally about to make landfall

    EiNgZDsXkAEk1D8?format=png&name=900x900

    Likely the radar imagery from Portugal is what pushed this to classification. It would probably have been declared a STS in post season analysis had they not named it today.

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    • Thanks 1

    Severe Weather for 4/19-4/23

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    SUMMARY...SUMMARY   BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND ENVIRONMENTAL DATA, A STRONG TO INTENSE   TORNADO WITH POTENTIAL PEAK WINDS OF 130 TO 165 MPH (EF2-EF3) IS   LIKELY ONGOING.     DISCUSSION...DISCUSSION   RECENT RADAR SIGNATURES FROM KGRK AS OF 2250Z REVEAL AN INTENSE   SUPERCELL CHARACTERIZED BY A 0.5 DEGREE ROTATIONAL VELOCITY OF AT   LEAST 70 KT. A TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED ON   RECENT RADAR SCANS. THESE SIGNATURES ARE OCCURRING IN AN ENVIRONMENT   CHARACTERIZED BY STP BETWEEN 5 AND 6. PREVIOUS SIGNATURES WITHIN   SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTS PRODUCED TORNADO-DAMAGE-ESTIMATED WIND SPEEDS   FROM 130 TO 165 MPH AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A STRONG TO INTENSE   TORNADO. A LONGER-TRACK TORNADO IS ONGOING AND MAY CONTINUE BASED ON   THE ROTATIONAL VELOCITY DURATION AND THE STORM MOVING WITHIN A   FAVORABLE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT.

    Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    The quick turnaround is likely because this assessment was done on a regional level (Central Region) and not on a national level.

    Ahh, that makes sense. Thanks for the info!

    I have to say...its the best NWS assessment I've seen. Great coverage of the societal aspect. I'm interested now to see what the eventual changes will be...how a "impact-based" system is implemented. At the least...as CT Rain says...appears the Tornado Emergency is going to become a separate product...but appears even bigger changes will eventually come.

    Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    Joplin Tornado Assessment report is out!!!!!

    http://www.weather.g...lin_tornado.pdf

    Fastest turnaround I've ever seen for a NWS assessment...4/27 report isn't even out yet.

    Many big statements in this one. Quotes that the warning system (and outdoor sirens) "have lost a degree of credibility"...and proposes a framework for basically a new warning system all-together.

    Another major proposal...implementing a new 88D VCP that allows for one-minute 0.5* slices...

    Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    I have talked with Springfield NWS numerous times and did some walking through the damage path with them. The impression I got from them is that this is a solid EF-5. The winds probably varied a bit with in the tornado. I have walked every stretch of this damage path and I would say that parts of the it were strong EF-4 to low EF-5. Then there are segments of strong EF-5 that probably had winds at 250mph. If you walk every inch of the path you can see the parts that were just a hair stronger. So I believe that 70% of the path was probably 200-210mph winds. But there are segments of probably 225-250mph winds. Also remember this when you talk about St. Johns. This is a huge building that actually got shifted off of its foundation a bit. And St. Johns was on the edge of the tornado and didn't take the strongest winds. Also when it hit Rangeline (Home Depot, Walmart, Acadamy Sports) it was a hair weaker. Probably winds around 200 mph. If you walk that path numerous times you can see the wind varying in spots. I think that is why there is some confusion on this. The bottom line is this is the most deadliest tornado in modern history. You have to go back to the Tri-State tornado for more deaths. That tornado spanded over 200 miles on the ground. The Joplin tornado did all of this in a 6 mile stretch. Also the Tri-State tornado was prior to tornado warnings.

    Thanks for some great clarification there! Seems that perhaps the 225-250 estimate is still valid then. Either way...no matter the exact speeds...its just a tragic and heartbreaking sight...and the stories of you...JoMo and others continue to be incredible. The fact remains as you say that this is the deadliest tornado of the modern era and that's the most important thing to remember in terms of historical perspective.

    Devastating tornado strikes Joplin, Missouri

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    First off...I agree..."low-end" EF5 is not a good term to use...though I understand why it does get used. EF5 is EF5 by that point...but the implication is probably something between 200 and 210mph.

    My main question is...why did the Springfield WFO MIC go on-air for a live interview to a TV station and explicitly state that they estimate the strongest winds at 225-250mph if that either wasn't true...or they just didn't have enough confidence to go with such a number yet. I would not have been expecting an MIC especially to throw out a number like that unless they were pretty sure of it (even if it never appeared on official statements)...so I think that's why it got reported so much that day when the interview aired. Even TWC was quoting that interview several times.

    If it wasn't that strong...that doesn't bother me in the end...I do trust what all the teams have been doing on the ground there...which I can't imagine being tasked to do...but I would like to know how an MIC let that slip if it wasn't true or just wasn't credible to that point of the survey.

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