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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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  2. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Tonight's update shows that a cold rain looks likely for most of the Cape and Islands for Sunday night into Monday night and Tuesday.  I am sorry for those snow lovers on Cape Cod, this is not our storm.  There are still plenty of questions on the second part of the nor'easter, it seems like it could bring accumulating snows to the area later Monday night into Tuesday if the air mass is cold enough.
  4. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Yes, the western part of Marquette county, MI could see snowfall amounts of over 24" and some numbers as high as 40" of snow in the next 72 hours will likely fall over the region.  A major blizzard combined with an arctic air outbreak of northeasterly winds over Lake Superior could combine to produce 3 feet or more of snow.  This is a major snow event for this time of year.
  5. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Snowstorm threat has become slightly enhanced the last few cycles.  06z GFS went from .5" of QPF as snow next weekend to 1.7" of QPF as snow for the 18z GFS run.  The storm track is slowly becoming suppressed on the GFS, while the other models are spilt apart in their potential solutions.  We are still under six days away, and just over five days away from the impacts of the storm.  The first upper level vortexes are moving through by Wednesday with some mix of snow and rain showers.  SNE will see mostly rain drops Wednesday, otherwise known as travel day.  Thanksgiving Day looks cold and dry for the area.
  6. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Today's 12z model runs showed a good sign that tomorrow's potent storm system might spare the game weather tomorrow for the Patriots and Cowboys meeting.  Given the 20z game time kickoff they could be spared the heaviest rains and a few showers might move through after the final horn.  Game temps will be raw, and nasty outside, cloudy and maybe misting.  40s for temps.
  7. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots 4:25 p.m. EST time on Sunday, November 24th, 2019 could feature a rather nasty weather day for football.  The game is going to be played at Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA.  A major coastal storm looks to track just west of the I95 corridor Saturday evening into Sunday night and could bring rather cool, rainy and windy weather.  Raw weather with temps in the mid-to-upper 40s.
  8. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    For the next several weeks we will have an increased risk for coastal impacts from several coastal and ocean storms.  Coastal flooding, high waves, rain, winds and beach erosion will be the main impacts, with chances for snow/ice and mixed precip further west in western New England.  Stay tuned, rain for now, it is not a guarantee.
     
  9. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I have drawn a graphic illustrating the next few weeks of the weather pattern across North America.  The northern hemisphere will favor a regime towards an evolving combination pattern of a -NAO/-AO/+PNA.  The red in the picture represents the presence of ridging in the mid-upper levels and the blue represents the troughing areas of low pressure in the mid to upper levels.  The ridging over western CONUS and eastern PAC ocean along with ridging across AK, to northwestern Canada northeastward to Greenland supports a -NAO blocking pattern regime to expand and stay put through the end of the month.  How long this lasts no one knows for sure, but its presence while does not guarantee snow, it will bring a stormy and much colder air pattern across the eastern CONUS.
  11. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Today we will experience extreme weather at its finest.  Severe flash freeze is setting up to enter the region as soon as later this morning, when temperatures sweep west to east with a 20-30F temperature change in the next 18-20 hours.  It will happen suddenly with the change of the winds vector.  AS the warm balmy 50+ degree southwesterly winds will change to a violent northwest cold dry bone chilling cold arctic air howling over 30mph.  Rain will change to snow and temps will bottom out in the lower 20s.  BRRRR!!!!!!!!!Current MESO OBS
  13. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Strong anomalously cold air heading towards the CONUS, eastern 2/3rds, east of the Rockies,
    Very warm air across SW CONUS, including the states of CA, NV and NM.
    Fire dangers will continue for the areas impacted to this date.
    Very little mountain snow/rain for CA, OR and WA. 
    MT to Great Lakes and Northeastern US will see above normal snowfall, perhaps quite intense snowfalls in the coming weeks
    November will bring snow and cold for most of the eastern CONUS
    Alaska should remain rather dry and mild, I wouldn't say warm
    Big storm threats for snow along the I-95 corridor and the immediate coastline of the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions will being next week, Monday-Wednesday
    Pattern now is a combination of a -NAO/-AO/+PNA regime
    Upper level pattern establishing itself now will favor prolonged sustained cold air and snow potentials due to anomalous ridging in Alaska and the PNA regions, and Greenland block developing in the North Atlantic Polar Regions
    Below are the maps of the pattern present and the snowfall and storm tracks anticipated for the next 48-60 days.
  15. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    While models decide their differences in the next day or so with the incoming precipitation threats, the one thing the pattern is adjusting to show is the appearance of arctic air masses invading the Northern 2/3rds of the CONUS.  While large sustained +PNA is present, we will be getting some major league arctic air invading our region and the eastern 1/3rd of the country.  While CA and the SW US bakes in record heat and fire weather, the MS Valley eastward will be experiencing the first cold winter snap of the fall season.  While October snowfall wasn't the case this season, it appears we will not escape November without a few chances of snow.  With such an arctic air mass in charge the coming weeks, we will see record highs and lows fall.  Right now, get the winter gear in order, we will need it.
  16. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    It is becoming increasingly clear, that the models are showing more confidence in an interior New England, mainly northwestern New England snowfall is going to happen later Thursday into Friday morning.  The quick nature of the system, what the weather world calls a progressive storm, is something that won't be spectacular by any stretch of the imagination, but could have some moderate travel impacts where it does indeed snow and accumulate.  The one thing that is blatantly obvious in the weather pattern developing now through November, is that there will be some amazingly cold air masses invading the region.  These air masses are driven by the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere over North America that will be originating from the Polar regions, arctic in appearance.  There are some very cold temperatures being printed out by the models, especially the GFS for Saturday this weekend and Tuesday of next week, indeed for CHH climate numbers, we could be as much as 10 to 20 F below normal both days.  Low temperatures in those two days could be in the upper 20s with northeasterly winds aiding to the presence of ocean effect showers.  Precipitation type unknown at this point and it is over 7 days away.  Time will tell if CHH gets their first measurable snow then or not.  For now, areas northwest of Worcester, MA will see some accumulating snowfall and I don't know how much just yet.
  19. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Today, this morning in New England, Monday is a rather slow, unwelcoming day.  Most New England Patriots fans are waking to an early sun rise, with the knowledge that their New England Patriots took a big loss on the chin from the Baltimore Ravens before their week 10 bye.  With the knowledge that there are weaknesses on the team's defense and offense, we pay attention to the weather scene the next two weeks before another game is played against the Philadelphia Eagles.  I awake this Monday morning, knowing that a potential winter storm is lurking in the day four window, and according to the 00z EURO run this morning, there might be a legit snow to the coast by day 9.  However, that is both beside the point.  Today, Monday, November 4th, 2019 is only four days away from a modeled interior snowstorm for New England.  Possibility becomes likely when models begin to agree on the storm in the 3 1/2 day window and confidence begins to increase substantially with the three major global models in relative agreement, the EURO, GFS and UKMET models have the same event in the same location, with similar results.  We should wait another 36 hours before we are more confident in any model and have the short range ensembles and the short range HI resolution guidance in the range necessary for a high confidence forecast.  For now, the November 8th modeled event is just that, a potential and nothing more or less.  Residents southeast of the I95 corridor in RI and SE MA should not worry too much about accumulating snowfall, for the most part if it snows at all it should melt.  The sun angle, while getting lower, is not there yet, and the ground is too warm as well as the ocean to the northeast while cooling substantially faster than last year at this time, we are still in the low to mid 50s off the South Shore of Boston to Nantucket.  The only shot is a cold screaming north wind that carries the very cold arctic air mass over the warmer waters.  Right now, nothing supports snow in the area, Cape Cod residents who love snow, we need to wait.
  20. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    In less than 24 hours, the Patriots are scheduled to play the Baltimore Ravens.  The current weather forecast is quite pleasant for Baltimore area.  Temperature expected to be in the mid-40s throughout the game, dew points in the lower 30s, with relative humidity in the dry zone of around 48 %.  No precipitation is expected as there are no weather systems in the area for the game tomorrow.  Frost could build throughout the game across grassy areas and colder surfaces.  Winds should be a non-factor, as they will be variable and light nothing over 10 knots.  I expect a rather lower scoring game, but Patriots come out covering, over 10 point win.
  21. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Snow from a potential coastal storm is looking like a distinct potential, nothing serious or imminent, just a potential.  Given the long term nature of the snow event possibility and given how volatile models can be run to run, we need to wait to see some resemblance of consistency start to mount up in the coming days.  We just aren't there yet.  Cold is coming and perhaps arctic in origin.  That is as much a given as anything right now.  Have fun this weekend, enjoy in the climate weather, near average to slightly below average with dry conditions.  We will know when something decent is coming in the 3 day range.
  22. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Latest GFS and model consensus showing signs that winter is ready to make a return.  Today will begin the cold pouring into the eastern CONUS.  BY the end of the seven day forecast, next Friday, a coastal system is showing up on the models.  However, I am not sold on this potential at this time.  There is a lot of disagreement on the potential location and track and intensity of said storm.  We will know more by the end of the weekend into the Monday timeframe of next week.
  23. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    **Alert Level** (High), potential snowstorm impact in the next three days, high!
    Parts of the Denver region could see multiple feet of snow in the mountains and in the city region.  Snowfall amounts of 10-30" is possible as the period ends 00z Wednesday, or Tuesday 8 pm EDT.  Multiple model consensus shows a strong trough entering CA now and moving over the area by Monday afternoon into Tuesday.  This will lead to leeward cyclogenesis to occur as the trough tilts more neutral.  This will lead to an area of blossoming precipitation on the northwest side/cold side of the low pressure center.  Impact will be expected in the high range.  Heavy snow and strong winds could lead to blizzard conditions.  Tuesday into Wednesday could see the heaviest snowfalls, over 12".  This could lead to snow over Chicago, IL and become an intense storm that changes the pattern across the central and eastern CONUS.  Updates to come in the next few days!SREFs show an all out huge snowstorm for Denver, CO
  25. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Multiple model consensus suggests that the current evolving pattern for the Equatorial Pacific Ocean basin wide is favoring neutral-ENSO pattern.  CPC suggests there is a more than 50/50 chance of a neutral ENSO persisting until Spring months of 2020.  This should favor a strong winter favoring above normal snowfall for eastern to central New England with a below average temperature climate.  Long range models suggest the pattern evolving this weekend will lead to a prolonged cold air mass.  More will become present as we head into the first week of November.
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