jhamps10

12 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Well, that looks a bit too warm for now to get that happens for the metro.

With that being said, this might be the only time I do not wish it verifies because I will be flying back to DFW on Saturday night... But we're 6 days out. Things may change

Agreed, I'm not saying prep for major storm at this point but need to keep a close eye because this and what the 12z euro shows are similar. 

11 minutes ago, bubba hotep said:

Factor in cold air bleeding in farther than modeled and this is borderline disastrous

Actually as it is that is disastrous, there's a lot of freezing rain that tropical tidbits doesn't show, I'm in my iPhone so I can't post the pic but pivotal weather shows freezing rain amounts of over 1" for most of the metroplex.. That would be a major disaster here, and let's be honest, would risk the Cowboys game from happening Sunday (IF the model verifies of course) but we are a far far ways out on this, but I would expect the nws to mention this in the afd

Actually looking at qpf that's a LOT of ice here in DFW, a good 1.5-2" of qpf.. I imagine some of this is sleet but still a lot of freezing rain too.. Very well could bring power outages and the like on this run

First look at Gfs, it's going to be very very icy for a good chunk of Texas, SLAMS Arkansas though 

Yeah.. The para Gfs is a LOT of sleet though... Cobblestone ice 2.0 probably.. 

18z GFS would make for an icy Saturday morning via an overrunning situation just se of DFW before slamming Louisiana and Arkansas with ice. If we blended the GFS and euro looks like dfw is near the sweet spot. I'd keep an eye on it over the next few days.

^ that is VERY close, closer than I thought really, worth close watching over the next few days

The GFS today is saying nope, keep dreaming.. But then again it lost yesterday for a while too so who knows what will happen. I think we need some help but it could happen, I'm still thinking Oklahoma/KS/ar right now, but it's still watchable

Well Gfs says adios winter thoughts for now.. Does keep the active pattern going tho.. Maybe la nina is breaking down.. Glad to have a system to look at tho

2 hours ago, Quixotic1 said:

I saw the para had a rain to snow event.  Maybe we can thread the needle like the southeast did.

Maybe so, I still think that this one may be more an Oklahoma Icestorm, but it could thread the needle.. Moisture vs the cold air just like most winter setups can be here lol 

8 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said:

I think we are going to get another crack or three at it this winter.  

Yeah I agree, models show a slim chance next weekend in fact, maybe more likely for Oklahoma and Arkansas but we will see

So, raise your hand if your commute home took more than an hour more than it should have.... *raises hands* seriously, we can't even handle a dusting of snow in ft worth.... Seesh... 

2 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said:

When was that event?  December 26th of 2015?  

December 27th into the 28th I believe

Looking ahead, I'm thinking Next Weekend could be something to watch for possible winter potential.. I'm thinking more Oklahoma than Texas right now, as the models aren't wanting to have the cold air this far south, however it's something to keep an eye on. At least the models show activity instead of dryness

1 minute ago, Quixotic1 said:

A dusting is the most I've seen since March 2015.  Already better than last year.

heh, exactly what I was thinking, this matches up with the snow burst from last winter already for Ft Worth. That one was weird, you could literally see the snowcover from Parker county from my office downtown, yet here in the city barely a dusting

Looks like Bridges and overpasses are starting to get slick, (Or people are taking no chances) but traffic is crawling on the 7th street bridge here in Ft Worth

it's coming down at a decent clip now in downtown Ft Worth... it's no "flurries" like the news said lol... it's sticking to the sides of bridges crossing the trinity river 

Had flakes when I was walking out the door in SW Arlington, drove through a decent sized burst on 20 near the East loop 820 merge.. NBC5 is saying that this is Lake Effect off of Lake Grapevine... Not sure I'm buying that but okay whatever. 

Getting some light flurries now at my office in Downtown Ft Worth, hard to tell since I'm 33 stories up

I think the Euro was like oh hey, people are talking about this now... lets throw a big ol wrench into this sucker... anything can happen still at this point. yesterday the GFS was saying nothing but cold for DFW so it's all in the trends.. Not throwing a towel or sounding alarms at this point, just watch and see.

well bubba... do tell, please give us some insight  

8 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

I wonder if this only counts snow or includes ice. 12z shows dfw with a good amount of time under ice next Thursday. If that turns out to be what happened, this might be a replay of December 7 2013, probably worse with snow on top of ice.


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It's probably sleet and snow mixed... That's what I was thinking through my head... Cobblestone ice 2.0 Possibly.. Too soon to say for sure

12Z GFS showing what would be a VERY dicey commute home WED night in the metroplex, with freezing rain/sleet line cutting across DFW with a long lasting winter event from Wed night through Friday morning for a good chunk of North/Central TX into Southern AR and LA

pattern looks good, I'm not going to get excited until next week comes to be safe, I like how FWD worded this in the FD this morning

Quote

The next feature of interest will be an arctic cold front that is
forecast to move down the Plains and through North and Central
Texas Tuesday. This will bring much colder air into the region
for Tuesday night through the end of the work week. Both the
GFS and ECMWF indicate a possibility of the some wintry
precipitation next Thursday. Fortunately, this is just beyond
the end of the current set of forecasts.

58

&&

53 minutes ago, bubba hotep said:

Another variation of a system that will most likely never come to fruition...

 

The fact that it keeps coming back and closer will have to start raising some eyebrows if it stays over the next few runs... This setup is perfect for classic north Texas overrunning ice/snow.. Still way too far to throw out alarms but it bears close watching imho

12z Gfs takes the storm away until the weekend of the 7th-8th.. Shows what would probably be a big freezing rain or sleet event in dfw with temps in the mid 20s.. Takes away the overrunning. Still wouldn't  shock me to see it get icy next week, and not just the temps