jhamps10

The sun is back out here at my office in downtown ft worth... 

And, NWS drops the winter weather advisory that probably was never needed anyway.... Love how everyone gets hyped for the threat of ANY snow, and then it's nothing... Ice is 1 thing but snow... lets get crazy when we actually see something more than a 2 mile wide band of snow that is moving less than 30 mph... I may not be a Native Texan but I think we can handle 3 flakes of snow... 

6 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

After today's snow all eyes turn to next week. The upper air pattern is a mess, but parsing through the mess I see a southern TX overrunning event early in the week and maybe a real snow event for northern portions of the state late in the week.

Mind saying where in the state??? cuz what I've been seeing is 60's up towards 70 for late next week at least in DFW

35 minutes ago, Roy said:

Back north my home turf got upgraded to a winter storm warning in KS, so fingers crossed. They have been in a major snow drought as well, but finally my dad will get to use his snowblower for the first time in years. I think our stuff is coming from the west. Hopefully it is a bit stronger than progged.

I believe the energy is coming from the west, but not the precip.. but I'm not 100% certain myself to be bluntly honest. The radar shows the precip in West TX moving southeast instead of east.. it'll be watch and wait.. Still feels weird to think it's in the 50's or even near 60, and it be snowing this afternoon... 

16 minutes ago, Roy said:

Model trends for today aren't great. NAM is backing off. Will have to see. In any case, some mood flurries at least are likely.

just in time for the news to hype it up lol... I had a huge chuckle watching the news at 10 when the news reporters on 5 said the word winter storm... I do want to see some decent snow however...

The news here in dfw have been hinting at possible wintery mix for Sunday... I've been looking at model data and I'm not seeing it...David finfrock is a Texas weather legend so I give it some thought but I'm not seeing it as likely right now IMHO

12Z GFS shows a NASTY ice storm for the metroplex and areas just west all Christmas weekend long.. reminds me of the cobblestone ice event in ways actually

I'll say this looking at Facebook, the ft worth star telegram already has posted an article online.. So yeah, ftw will probably need to start saying a wee bit more this afternoon into tomorrow....

1 minute ago, vwgrrc said:

Agree on the consistency (except for 0z last night). Confidence is getting higher for some wintry wx in NTX. But I think there's a trend of the freezing rain/sleet band shifting north with the latest 12z showing the Metro is right on the edge. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Metro "dodge" the event eventually.

wouldn't surprise me, but it wouldn't shock me either if it turns out the other way with the wintery precip being more like what happened with the snow last week in central and south TX.. I'm feeling a bite more confident myself that something may come up, almost to the point I may pick up some ice melt this weekend just in case, cuz if we don't need it, oh well it's good for the future

8 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

My issue is the models have been very consistent with this event. The ensembles have not wavered and the operational runs, especially the GFS, have been incredibly consistent. Personally I have never seen the models show this strong of a signal, this far in advance (the GFS has been on this for a week without wavering significantly). I will be watching the NAM intently starting on Tuesday as it is the best model for Arctic air masses.

agreed, with the GFS showing the metroplex right on the line on the 12z run, starting on Saturday now instead of Christmas day... probably needs to get a bit more mentioning if the other models fall in line this morning

personally, I have no problem whatsoever for FTW using caution in regards to mentioning this.. It gets the word out there that hey there could be something, but we aren't real sure that it will come about either.. Look at the models from last night, 0zGFS had nothing, but the 6Z had a crippling Icestorm for a good chunk of the metroplex. However I'd stock up on the Christmas groceries a bit earlier this year just in case

Nbc5 dfw reported on the news tonight NWS survey confirmed 4 tornadoes so far in North Texas From last night.. A couple ef-1's down in Hill County but all others rated ef-0 so far..

1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

San Angelo radar is down

19z HRRR has almost discrete rotating cells over central texas

Oh lovely.. At least you have somewhat decent coverage provided by midland and the radar near abilene to help fill in that gap 

Oh well worst case it's lots of moisture to give the lakes a head start on Spring.. Do like having this active pattern though

Oh how I wish we could lock in the 0Z GFS for 2 weeks from today... Course that'll never happen but it's nice to look at for now anyways lol.... brings in a great winter storm for the DFW area

10 minutes ago, bubba hotep said:

I'm getting crushed over here! I never had allergies in DC and then move here and Mt. Cedar hit me like a ton of bricks. This go round is horrible, the whole family is down with it. 

I know, it's hit me almost like a flubug, I thought it was the flu, and as such stayed home from work yesterday until I did some looking into mountain cedar and it can mimic the flu in severe go rounds... Personally I'm ready for it to be over!

We certainly use the soaking.. Also hopefully it washes out the mountain cedar too.. That is killing me this week! 

15 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said:

Heck, according to the 00z gfs nobody is getting ice.  Even OK.

Lol yeah I'm not going to buy that idea myself.. No ice in Texas sure but Oklahoma?? Think the GFS got too close to a blow torch in that run lol

9 minutes ago, Quixotic1 said:

If it's going to rain, 64 please.  

Agreed.. I wish the nam went out further than 84 hours to compare to the GFS 

Comparison time... Nam Friday morning.. 41 degrees... Gfs??? 64... 

I've only lived in DFW since June 2013, but I don't recall that happening. On the artic front, I suppose it is possible but you are on the money with it stalling in January.. usually it'll blow right through. I'm leaning on the side of it not making it here over blowing through or stalling even but want to see after this thing has better sampling in a few days to say for sure.

12Z GFS showing 7-8" of rain right on top of Collin County. One feature I have noted is that the Longer range NAM and the GFS are a good 50-60 miles apart when it comes to the cold front. Probably wont end up being a big deal here, except for maybe thunderstorms at 65 vs a cold rain at 40

Gfs showing a down right almost Warm rain and temps in the 60s, stalling the front nw of dfw

Now to watch the 0z models start to roll in.. Wonder what changes they'll bring tonight

So, take your pick.. flood or ice storm.. I'd take flooding over the ice, but just bought a scraper just in case.. the cobblestone ice storm 3 winters ago broke mine and didn't need a replacement until now