jhamps10

Was watching NBC 5 tonight and Rick Mitchell was doing all he could to try to emphasize how future cast showing ice in dfw for morning Rush could be overdone... We shall see in the morning but I think at least Tarrant county the further nw you are better prepare for more than just rain tomorrow morning

Metroplex now added to winter weather advisory from midnight until noon

updated AFD from FTW, WWA WILL NEED to be expanded to include Metroplex if not NE Counties this afternoon IMHO: 

Quote

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1042 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018


.UPDATE...
The arctic airmass associated with this morning`s cold front has
made it through all but the southeastern-most counties late this
morning. Due to the shallow nature of the airmass, guidance has
had difficulty keeping up with the post-frontal temperature drop.
The leading edge of the freezing temperatures has already reached
a Bonham-Fort Worth-Comanche line and will continue to drop
southward this afternoon and evening.

Meanwhile, occasional light drizzle will switch over to freezing
drizzle as temperatures fall below 32. Precipitation is very light
and we do not expect any accumulations this afternoon. However, a
few slick spots on elevated surfaces and bridges can not be ruled
out, particularly for areas along and north of the I-20 corridor.

An upper level disturbance is still slated to move overhead late
tonight through Sunday morning. This is when we could see some
accumulations significant enough to produce travel delays due to
ice on both bridges and roads. The Winter Weather Advisory which
is in effect for tonight through Sunday morning across areas
southwest of the DFW Metroplex will likely need to be expanded
northeastward across the Metroplex, and possibly all the way to
the northeast counties based on the recent model guidance. This
expansion will be done with the afternoon forecast package when we
have gotten a good look at the suite of midday model guidance.


30

&&

Already 31 at ft worth meacham... Boss went out to grab lunch and said mist was sticking to windshield already

What's the timing looking like on this?? Doing Valentine's day early with the wife downtown... Hate to get stuck if it ices over... Thinking we may just be doing dinner then heading home

Already down to 33 in Arlington... No word on if roads are icing up in Colin county yet but I wouldn't be shocked, esp North of 380

3 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

Freezing drizzle through tonight for the NW half of N TX, may try to push into Tarrant Co. Tomorrow morning we will have to watch for another round of freezing drizzle, mainly south of I-20, if temps drop below freezing tonight in those areas. This weekend and beyond look active but models are a jumbled mess right now.

Lovely.... That'll make my trip to work tomorrow extra fun

NWS Ft Worth hinting at the weekend winter threat, but still way too far out to know anything for sure... I haven't even looked at models to see anything yet

11 minutes ago, DFWWeather said:

If DFW Airport reaches 12°F or lower as forecasted...then that will be the coldest we have been in 22 years. You have to go all the way back to February 1996 when we hit 8°F. Doubt we will hit the single digits, but we could. This current streak is the longest on record by a wide margin of not falling below 10°F.

We are going on nearly 3 consecutive years without any significant snow or ice. Last event was March 4, 2015. By significant I mean 0.25 or greater of ice or 2 inch or greater of snow. If nothing occurs this year, it will be the longest stretch since 1978 without any significant snow or ice for DFW, possibly longer.

Crazy stretch we are in.. I personally fear with how everyone closed down almost, that when we do have a real threat, people won't take it seriously and we end up with an Atlanta or BHM situation of people stuck all night long. Glad however to see TXDot starting to use the brine more like we have in the midwest, sure it doesn't eliminate the threat entirely on roads, but it can make a difference in the severity of the slick roads, unless you get ice cold temps like what we have.. I think it's safe to say that Tyler and Longview are having cobblestone ice like we did in 2013 in DFW right now. 

barely a dusting in Burleson.. my commute into downtown Ft Worth was the best it's ever been lol.. 

Watch this winter we end up with a snowstorm in March to finally give DFW Something 

3 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Can't tell if the snow out by Granbury/Mineral Wells is heading northeast or east. Makes a big difference for north dallas burbs

Looks like e-ne to me..

Ft Worth isd 2 hour delay for now, Crowley and basically all of Johnson county closed for tomorrow.. 

Snow mixing in and accumulating on the cars in Burleson

3 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

D/FW is going to have some really big problems if that sleet doesn't stop in the next hour. Lots of pictures coming in showing wet roads (since sleet/snow melting on contact). All that is going to flash-freeze once we get into the middle 20s, which is only 2-3 hours away. 

Which looking at radarscope, it probably won't end in the next hour.. radar filling in down by stephenville and ranger, all that coming in towards DFW

Sleet mixing in with the rain in Burleson

Radar definitely looking more like hrrr than the nam in my opinion.. reports of sleet in North fort Worth at the nws office.

I just stepped out in Burleson and there's already cold rain falling here, I tried putting cardboard on the windshield... This wind just blew it right off... So back to my Midwestern roots of raising the wiper blades and have the scraper

Some schools south and se of the DFW metro already calling off school for tomorrow... Cold front coming into DFW as we speak.. 

6 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Any idea about the track record of this model at this range? Some say it's a good short range model. But another trusted model - RGEM didn't show nearly as much precip as that model does.

Honestly I have no clue as I hadn't heard of this model until just now, but I will say this looking at radar in Kansas and it does appear to me that there would be a bit more moisture along the front than advertised.. think it depends on how fast it moves more than anything at this point..

18 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Someone just post a 0z HRRRX on Twitter which looks pretty impressive for DFW to E TX. I have no idea how reliable that model is but that solution seems a lot more significant (and icy) than what NWS has discussed. Can anyone verify that?

I just pulled it up on tropical tidbits and yes it does show a LOT more moisture and ice for not just dfw but the entire state really..

4 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

They will calm down once the 18z data set gets reflected in some publicly available resources, like TWC or Wunderground. 

Wouldn't hold my breath on that... They are the ones that hyped up our 2 minutes of snow from Thursday after all... 

4 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

The media is still hyping it up. Just got a push notification from WFAA about it

Oh yeah, nbc5 is still in full hype mode too. I bet they have the thunder trucks out already lol

4 minutes ago, Roy said:

Frustrating. But, still hope as we get closer to nowcasting.

But, I’m planning on no delays on Tuesday for my school probably.

That's probably a good plan.. I blame it on the media hype up lol.. I do hope nowcasting changes things though for sure.. the trends right now aren't promising though

3 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

NWS is very conservative on the amount in their PM discussion. They basically said little to nothing for DFW and north.

Which will probably end up verifying... Watch this is a winter where Austin and college station end up with 10" of snow while dfw may have 1/2" lol... I feel like I'm back in Southern Illinois and get snow shafted all the time there

1 minute ago, aggiegeog said:

And this could be a nice fluffy snow so a .25" liquid could mean 4-6" of snow across the northern half of the state.

As long as we avoid the sleet factor, that can kill any good accumulations of snow in events, but a nice fluffy snow will be pretty to see, glad to see some consistency in the models for once too

I'd just be thrilled with more than 5 minutes of snow personally, Glad to have something to watch over the weekend, hopefully this one pans out.