ksstormhunter
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Posts posted by ksstormhunter
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I can tell you right now that there are many many cases in history.... especially east of the Plains... where numbers like that have supported F3-F5 damage. It's a really bad idea to try to tie EF-Scale to parameter thresholds like that.
Sorry not trying to tie those specific values to that type of Torndoes, those are just the sampling of values I put in the discussion, My outputs for potential tornado type tie into more than those I actually use more then just the instability indicies, I use 87 instability values and surface observation parameters, and upper air weather parameters.
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Just pushed out my 19Z Severe Weather analysis. Right now showing AR through Eastern OK to NE TX for the next 24 hours with the highest instability areas. DeQueen, AR-McAlster, OK,-Dallas, TX to Little Rock, AR in the highest threar for the next 24 hours. Surface CAPE at this hour is 2100 (j/kg), 0-3KM SRH is around 288 m/s, and 0-1KM Shear running about 40 knots. Main threat EF2 type tornadoes, convective gusts around 70 knots, and hail up to 1.5" in diameter. Uploaded analysis http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf'>http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.pdf and city specific forecasts http://smartwxmodel.net
Alaska/Western Canada obs and discussion
in Central/Western States
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IR shot showing a nice healthy system slamming the coastline. I see blizzard warnings on the coastline. Looks like you will pick up a couple of inches of snow for the Anchorage area....