Mitchel Volk

1973 no days of snow cover

This winter reminds of of 1973.  Cold then rrain tnen cold then rain.  That winter NYC only has an inch.

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah the sleet makes sense but the rain is really odd.  I guess for a short time here the BL might be near 1500-2000ft deep but odds are everyone north of a SI-New Brunswick line is going to flip to all sleet or snow/sleet when heavier echoes move in

 

Looks like a snow sounding, I guess it is wrong, with surface wet bulb temps supporting snow there must be a decent warm layor out there.  Just look at the correlation coefficent in Radar Scope and you see the rain snow line about 40 miles north of th city.

rain in brooklyn heights.  Those HRRR projected soundings wrong.

This reminds of the winter of 1973.  However, this is about to change.  Still, light sleet at beaver street, about 2" at Battery Park.

same at Beaver very small snow flakes and sleet

Use Radar Scope, it the best radar out there

rain sleet snow now

Moderate rain in Cobble looks like it is snowing above 500 feet

rain in Cobble Hill Brooklyn

I saw that the verification score is for the whole world.  I believe for our neck of the woods in winter the models is not ready yet.  I hope they can improve this before it goes operational.

I have been comparing the two models and my current assessment is the GFS has been a lot more consistent than the FV3 Model.  The FV3 seems to be too strong on many runs for east coast storms.   Just look at the upcoming storm for the 19-20th.  At one point NYC was going to get37" of snow and the latest 6Z run has mainly rain.  I love to see what other people think about this.

Just look at Dec 1989

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Yes but it had most areas over to rain by now. It’s still 25 degrees here. Highly doubt I get to 34 by 10:00 like the forecast says.

not at 850mb leve it was -.05 throw out there temp forecast and use your knowedge.  Models must be adjusted

GFS had snow, if you adjusted there surface temps as they have a warm bias.  The 850MB temps showed it.

Moderate here at Beaver St

Nearly moderate here at Beaver St lower Manhattan

Snow fall rate pick up rapidly here at Beaver St Lower Manhattan

First flake here at Beaver St lower Manhattan