snownut

27 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

This would've been a nice winter weekend if we'd have gotten forecast amounts of snow.  It was cloudy enough yesterday that patches of our 1/2" mulch-topper survived the day, and full snow cover would've really bottomed out the temps last night.

Snow at the Aldie house survived more than 24 hours… besides the January winter week that is best the winter could muster… sad 

Snow porn from my shift this morning.  

And mid mountain snow stick yesterday.

Once they send the blower through layers are more obvious.  Latest storm cycle has been great. even at my home in town I have now hit seasonal average.   Feeling damn lucky based on the rest of the country. 

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Jackson Hole tracks summit, mid mtn and base snowfall.  I’ve never seen such a difference between the 10,500 and 6200 snowfall reports.  Several storms where they got 20+ at the top and rain at the bottom.  Very unusual.  Unfortunately probably going to become more common  

 

This is the highest point near me. (South Sister 10,300')  Took this from the parking lot ( 6,500')  early this morning.  I July hiked it two times when I first moved here.  Its a long day hike. 15 miles and a mile elevation change from the parking lot. Pretty easy except a long loose scree incline just before the summit.  

The snow fields and glaciers on the summit never melt out.  ( sadly that maybe changing soon ) 

12 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I was hoping to go to Whistler, but since it rained so much, I chose Tahoe instead, and I was there from the first of the month until this past Sunday.

What a great move it was. Heavenly was not very impressive, but Kirkwood was amazing, and at some point I’ll share the pics I took (in the winter pics thread). Kirkwood ended up with a total of 65” while I was out there, and this wasn’t the stereotypical Sierra cement, it was legit powder much like the Rockies. It was some of the best skiing I’ve ever enjoyed, not quite like Alta last year but close.

Haven't been to Tahoe since I was a young fit dude.  Older dude now so just keeping myself rolling.  I have heard great things about Kirkwood and I know they get hammered.  Glad you timed your trip for powder skiing because those days have been few this season!  Send me some photos! 

I took this photo a couple hours ago at the top of NW Lift. 

It gets blasted and drifted in. The snow wall there is crazy high!

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The lower elevation mountains out west have been having a horrific year. Snow levels on many storms have been unprecedentedly high. 8-9k in some cases. Some resorts had to close multiple times all the way into January and I saw some smaller resort in Montana just gave up and cancelled the season after being open only 4 days when they got wiped out again by the last rainstorm. 

First hand that is absolutely true. Rough season for any resorts out here below 6000'  There are several not far from me that have base elevations around 5000'  They are skiing now and mostly open but very late start and probably early closing? Unless March flips colder?  As mentioned in my other reply very juiced storms and AR events so the snow pack above 8000' is massive!  They finally open the summit last weekend here at Mt Bachelor but not before a bunch of dynamite work for avalanche mitigation. 

22 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Wow didn’t realize it was so bad there. They have a very low bar to pass next year then

(FYI referencing this reply: I work the parking crew at Mt Bachelor and was working the paid and RV parking area this morning ) 

Whistler has had a really rough year. (and the lower elevation resorts here too) 

I have been seeing a bunch of Canadian license plates coming here to ski/ snowboard. On my shift today several British Columbia plates and a couple in their sprinter van here for 3 days. I spoke with them and they were so happy to be somewhere with a good base and they lucked into a colder storm cycle. Powder day today!  Way more rain and ice than normal here but thankfully the storms are juiced up so when it does snow its a bunch.

2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I lived here for 10 years previously,  so I knew what to expect.  The differences from N to S in this county are stark.

What was your liquid total?

Seems like the increasing norm is you gotta wake up early enough to see wet flakes or a quick coating before it's gone.  Watching all the observations from afar and seeing my Aldie station touch 32 for a couple of hours and the grass get white is all winter can muster?  The Feb pattern is the now like March or Early April from not long ago.  Expect green grass and budding trees now when I get there the end of the month.  

And congrats to the north and western edge folks who get a day or so of winter. 

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

Yeah after I get some slop tomorrow morning I’m probably checking out myself unless something really pops. Pattern isn’t bad but we can’t seem to time anything up. Just making me frustrated so I’ll track from a distance

Good luck rest of year….

Cya at 00z


.

47 years in VA area and now 10 years in PNW gotta say its painful to watch how many yuck winter seasons back there.  I remember some great years with extended snow cover and cold.  Particularly when I lived near Winchester.  Seems like even when it does snow there its gone so fast. Even places like Canaan Valley where I could almost always drive and get into some snow are suffering with brown and bare winters. 

Strong odds I'll be living mostly in VA again when I retire. Have made some deep connections out here and at least one of my kids looks very rooted in here so I'll be able to visit Cascade snow country again to escape the chilly east coast rain storms that seem to be the new norm. 

Good luck the rest of the season! 

19 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Spring arrived the last week of January. 

I dont even care that it barely snowed; that is normal here.  But, the lack of any storms in February is head -scratching.  We're not even officially out of the drought.

Ironically it's been a wetter Nino  than expected out here in the PNW. Snowpack is lower than normal in my area but not by much. And it's loaded with water content because of all the higher elevation rains.  Reservoirs are filling nicely so when it flips to our 4-5 months of bone-dry sunny season maybe plenty of water for summer irrigation? 

I will be in Virginia in a couple of of weeks so let's see if my preordered pattern change MECS HECS pans out… better go read the long-range thread now to see what digital blue is coming   . I took this snow stake photo two days ago.  Should be 120” or more this time of year.  

5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Unequivocally, I can say this has been the most useless Nino of my life.  Almost wall to wall warmth and barely even avg precip.  Nearly halfway through Feb and I have .02".  This has been an absolute disaster.

It's been a sad train wreck to watch.  They started the renovation on our pool this week. Originally late March was the estimate.  

I bought into the hype and have have been sadly entertained by the “experts” banter.  Just 2 more weeks they kept saying…making excuses, can-kicking, backtracking, “I did not say that date”  “didn't mean that” blah blah….

had 1 solid cold and snowy week.  That's the new Nino. 

Spring is right around the corner… or is it already here today? 

.  

23 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

You'd have thought we were there in the middle of May.

Wow. I have many winter memories of deep snow and massive ice at black water falls.  It was near always a slam dunk to find snow and winter there! 

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Went to Davis and Deep Creek yesterday.  Not a flake of snow to be found.  Nothing but bare ground.  46F in Davis at 3,000ft+.  What a winter.  

Wow, that is sad for this time of year.

There was so much hope and promise going into this winter.  Outside of one nice winter week it's just been a series of nice drought busting rain storms.  If snow still happens and it probably will (  hopefully the week I am at the Virginia home )  I want to have something to shovel and a reason to rent an AWD rental car while I am there!

I think this winter ends up a D. If there is a HECS or MECS for the wrap up then maybe a C? 

A few snows and a few weeks of winter maybe the new best case for mid-atlantic winters because things sure seem to default to liquid not frozen.   

2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

There will be misses to the south and north,  then one final kick to the nutz with a miss to the east, complete with Cape posting pics and obs from his chase to the beach, right before we hit our first March 80F heatwave.

I am coming to our VA home for a week end the month and first weekend in March.  I have requested a HECS during my visit. 

Pretty normal snow pack here in the cascades. This was mid mountain snow stake on 1/26 It settled back to 109" as of today but looks like thick solid base for the March through May ski season. 

13 hours ago, Ji said:

I’ve decided I’ll live the last 10 years of my life in the up of Michigan. Can’t wait to get out of the South

Life is short! Go for it! 

Its been a very long time! Finally snow on blink cams at my Aldie home. 

My future son-in-law said around 4" in Aldie. 

It's his first winter on the east coast and his message this morning was

" OMG people here freak out over a little bit of snow "  LOL

35 minutes ago, Jebman said:

That's just great! Not only does the arctic air get to  Buda on Sat night instead of Sunday, now there is a chance of frzra! THAT'S JUST GREAT! We were doing so well! It was so nice in south Texas! We had made it almost into mid January with 60s!

I want cold to hit the Mid Atlantic, NOT south Texas! And just where does the 1042 arctic high go? Right in the heart of Texas! That's just great.

Jebwalk conditions on my morning parking shift.  It was howling wind for my full 2-1/2 hour shift.  Another 2-4 feet in the forecast by Saturday.  Should easily get the base over 100"  

4 hours ago, Jebman said:

That new very hot base state is going to add about 80 inches of rain a year everyone east of the Mississippi.

And, I am absolutely  green with jealousy.

I wish I lived in the coastal Gulf States. They get so much rain.

I work the parking lot crew Wednesday morning at 7 am… It will be textbook Jeb walk conditions…

52 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

T - 2" in the Shen Valley

2 - 4" elevations > 1000 ft.

Areas to the East - good luck.

Mt. PSU could jack in the middle of the Sahara, so 6" for him.

My first and final calls.  Let's see how I do.

4” or bust in your backyard!

I have siblings in Front Royal, Stephens City, Clearbrook and kids in Leesburg and Aldie so I will get their updates.  

I will send you photos next week of the 50 “ plus expected here over the next 8 days

2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I would refuse.

I have little say in the matter. Step daughter is a school teacher. We asked her for a September October wedding date but she said too busy.  Its being held at our Aldie home. Contract is set for catering, music, tent etc... and wife just signed a contract to have the swimming pool renovated and updated this spring. (talk about $$)  Ouch.. My wife is an only child both parents have passed away. Its her childhood home so lots of history and in beautiful setting.  But oh man July 20th in Virginia is not where I would choose to be.  I'll be a good hubby and step dad, stand, sit and smile when directed, and be very thankful the whole event isn't on my tab.  LOL  

On 12/27/2023 at 12:47 PM, EastCoast NPZ said:

I don't think you can count on Deep Creek having snow either.

East Coast NPZ :   It is poor in much of the western US right now.  Solid RED in my neighborhood.  ( ironically the green light blue 100- 120% area is the Alvord Desert which only averages 7" of rain per year ) 

Another nice soaker at my Aldie place today.  My daughter is getting married July 20th ... outdoor wedding in Virginia.. that should be a sweat festival. 

Winter clock is ticking so good luck back there!

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s over. Tune up the mower

eastcoast NPZ lives in the Mid-Atlantic desert!   No mower is needed.. just a rake for clearing the blowing tumbleweed from the sand dunes that will start forming this spring. 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Two things can be true. I’m still very bullish on snow this season. But I am also still seeing the same signs of climo degradation.  The latter doesn’t mean I’m saying it won’t snow. Maybe we get 40” instead of 50” though. And because I love snow so much it frustrates me when I see even a coating being “stolen” compared to the climo baseline I grew up associating as “normal”. 
 

Take this example. I’ve been visiting a close friend in Vermont. We were discussing the similarity in the recent pattern to 1998 except adjusted for 25 years of warming. It made no difference for DC. They were rain in 1998 and rain now. But Vermont was crushed with snow in all those storms that season.  But last week that perfect track storm was rain all the way into Canada. And again in a couple days the next coastal will be rain up here.  And before someone says but pac puke, that didn’t used to matter at 2000 feet in Vermont!  If you had a 988 low off the benchmark it didn’t matter what the airmass was it was gonna snow here. 
 

Does that mean they aren’t going to get a ton of snow this winter.  Of course not. It will still snow plenty. But that doesn’t change the clear indisputable warning signs flashing that it’s getting harder to snow. Both points can exist simultaneously. And I choose to acknowledge them both. 

My 9th full-time PNW winter since moving from Aldie VA. Actually working part-time at Mt Bachelor this season.  Several employees on the crew have worked on the Mountain more than 20 years. The same issue here as you describe in VT. Cascades will still get snow but the rain snow line has been exceptionally high this season and these oldtimers have not experienced any season start like this. Checked in another guy yesterday that said its his 31st straight season skiing here. He said he remembers only 1 other season this bad.  (would be interested to know what year? just didn't have time to find out)  Good luck back there.  ☃️ 

Monitoring Aldie Home from afar..

ironic drought continues here with only 7.26 liquid total for this year.. 

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

without any snow in Dec....we are simply not going to get an epic winter. Lets say we get 10 in Jan, 15 in Feb and 5 in march.....thats 30.....thats not epic...its decent. We really need one or two double digit storms including  hecs to put us in 2002-2003 land. 

looks like we are headed for a 65-66 winter--if we are lucky  

Do you remember that season? 

On 11/10/2023 at 1:46 PM, WVclimo said:

Thanks!  Good to see you posting.  Hope you and the family are well.

I am an empty nester now. Last kid and a too much of my bank account are Cal Poly now

Two daughters living and getting married Virginia in 2024 so hunch I'll be spending much more time in the Old Dominion in the years ahead. 

Have a fabulous Thanksgiving and rooting for a White Christmas there.