Yaz

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Something for the tucked in crew to chew on 

500mb must not be as wound up as some other models, with only 1006 mb surface low?

54 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

MJO on the euro and GEFS goes into the COD and possibly re emerging into 2.

What does this mean in weenie terms?

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Ripping pretty good here in this snow shower. 

where is here?

Heavy snow Eatontown New Jersey

3 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

Light snow Wading River, Suffolk north shore.  Surprised at the frozen start.  38f

Thanks for including location. Posts with a location of “here” are not very helpful.

7 hours ago, wdrag said:

For those with the chance of check 2M temp guidance...  take a look at current GFS vs EC 2m temp fcsts (this has also been the history of both models for this event).  Looks to me like the EC has outperformed the GFS in morning lows NYC-AVP and i think will be a winner with todays afternoon high when temps don't rise much more than 8F from the 730AM lows.  This because of the maximized cold pool, 500MB down to the sfc, represented by the -24C 850MB temp at 18z/21.  Also, I've noticed arctic chill is like molasses and it tends to trail the coldest air aloft. MAX today in CP might only be 14F.  A chilly day...not necessarily a big deal for most of us (its winter), except utilities use explicitly accurate hourly or 3 hourly temp fcsts for ensuring everyone has heat and fuel, including industry. For sure splitting the difference between the EC/GFS 2 m temp was an improvement, upon the GFS alone. 

 

Revising this: now that its % in CP and -2 here Wantage...this is ECMWF op run after op run superiority upon the GFS 2m temps from AVP to NYC for sure...  I see there EC 2m temps best on weather.us (subscriber).  In any case, I now think that NYC will be hard pressed to exceed 13F this afternoon. (8F rise form this mornings low). Updated 721A/21. 

Always enjoyed your discussions (BOX or Mt Holly)...the best. And enjoyed meeting you at Mt. Holly open house several years ago. Also, a huge thank you for writing me back on how to interpret FOUS output many, many, years ago (I think I still have that letter somewhere!). -Greg in NJ

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

Any word on Ukie? I hear it’s south again

 What if Florence hits Florence (SC OR NC)?