jr461

25 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

I dont know how unexpected it is.  The warm nose is between 825-700 for the most part.  That's about right.

 

Think sleet is the predominant p type, but the further south you go, the quicker the waa in the 850-925 layer, so higher risk for a period of zr before plain rain this evening/overnight. 

Thanks, glad to hear that.  Zr is my (and many others) biggest concern.

Just now, NittanyWx said:

Snow and sleet, 21.  This is a big time sleet fest Hudson valleyand ct as expected.  Wedge remains stout.

Since areas to the south are unexpectedly mixing with and switching to snow, is that a good sign that freezing rain is not imminent (yet)? 

It would seem that the upper level warming has not penetrated enough layers yet given the widespread sleet and now snow again in central NJ.

Thanks

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

The precip types are inaccurate.  Sleeting in Oradell, NJ (exit 165 off GSP).

12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Even with that though, we would have one nice highlight if we can get a 3 to 6 inch snowfall before the change to sleet and rain with tuesday's storm. GGEM and UKMET look pretty good.

Why is it a "nice highlight" to get a few inches only to be shortly washed away?  I don't get that even for a snow lover.  That only serves to make travel difficult, snarl traffic and cause transit delays with no lasting effect (although the nice highlight there is no piles of filthy plowed snow for weeks on end).  

Even when I loved snow like the rest of you, when it was a snow to rain scenario, which almost always seemed to be the case growing up, I became disinterested.  That's what made the '78 storm (I think it was then) so much fun - it was supposed to have changed to rain before midnight but in the morning was a great surprise - just sleet leftover with more than a foot of snow on the ground.

Don't think we got the worst of it in Oradell, NJ (just east of Paramus).  Heavy snow and wind for about 10 min with lighter to moderate for about 5-10 minutes on either side of it. 

One lane road in each direction is just wet with traffic moving well.

22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

That's not true, amounts are higher over the interior. For example my watch is calling for 4-8" of snow and up to 0.25" of ice.

Based on what you are seeing, how bad of an icing problem are you anticipating (from freezing rain; I don't care about snow or sleet) for northern Bergen County, around the GSP as opposed to 287?