BillT

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A solar minimum is no match for the CO2 forcing. There was a good paper out on this several years ago. As for the AMO, the sea ice was in decline during the last cold phase during the 80's into the mid-90's. Natural oscillations like the PDO and AMO can impact shorter term  rates of decline.  But the long term decline is a result of rising global and Arctic temperatures.

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/feulner/research/how-would-a-new-grand-minimum-of-solar-activity-affect-the-future-climate

there it is the clear claim that the tiny amount of co2 in our air is more powerful than the SUN.........your side of this cant be believed on any level.

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

billions of years ago the composition of the earth's atmosphere was completely different- it's like comparing earth to a different planet.

that is why i suggested no need for further discussion you are missing every point made, the POINT of my post was climate change has been a constant throughout history....i was in no way comparing todays climate details with those from billions of years ago ONLY that both had CHANGE as a constant

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

no one implied it causes "weather" its a trend thats been going on since the 1980s and yes you can identify trends and changes in climate and those can be linked to long term changes in patterns of events.........its kind of head in assery thats held humanity back from progressive change that should have happened a long time ago... examples are the sharp rise in 3" precip events and increasing relative humidity levels.

sorry but the trends have been ongoing for billions of years.......no need for further discussion.....

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

its connected to weather patterns not individual weather events.

the high humidity around here this year was unprecedented and even with air conditioning I and many others suffered through a horrible summer

the climate is a statistical look at the PAST weather,it in no way causes any single event or pattern.....the weather causes changes in the climate stats, the climate causes no weather PERIOD.

since the climate is not a force and has never caused any weather event then NO weather event can be linked to climate change.....

2 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

It's true. The 2007 summer minimum was lower than in 2018. However, if you integrate the sea ice extents over the entire year and assuming 2018 follows the 2017 trajectory the remainder of the year (a reasonable assumption) you'll find that 2018 results in less ice than in 2007. Except that's really moot anyway. Keep in mind that when we say "decline" we are talking about a longterm secular decrease in sea ice extents. We are not in any way implying that every year will necessarily be lower than the previous. Natural variation is still very much in play. And we aren't necessarily even focused on just the summer minimum. The winter maximum and, of course, the yearly mean are equally important metrics.

Regarding your second point there may be some confusion as to what a greenhouse does.  CO2 and other polyatomic molecules (like H20, CH4, and CFCs) aren't sources of heat. What they do is disrupt the balance between Qin (the incoming shortwave radiation) and Qout (the outgoing longwave radiation). This imbalance creates a net positive gain in heat uptake in the geosphere (90% goes into the hydrosphere) until a new equilibrium is achieved such that Qin = Qout once again. It's really not much different at a conceptual level with the insulation in your home. All other things being equal your house will achieve an equilibrium at a lower temperature if there is no insulation. Again, CO2 is not a source of heat. What it does is impede the transmission of heat.

the incoming is both short and long wave radiation, and there is NO balance never has been, thermodynamics means the system seeks to find balance but because factors constantly change that balance is never found.......

since there was more ice this past summer than in 2007 where is this continuing decline in the arctic sea ice please?????....also the greenhouse effect is an insulating effect, please name one insulator than adds extra heat to any system????? i ask because seems to me co2 in no way adds to the total heat in our atmosphere.

the climate is just a set of statistics, the average weather stats from the previous 30 years for a given area.......the climate is NOT a force, has no power and has never been the cause of any weather event........

when a person mentions "consensus science" as evidence they are admitting they know NOTHING about the most basic concepts of science......

"IF" and "may soon" are not science in any way they are political claims unbacked by any science at all.......

this thread is why i limit my posting here,   a group are claiming that humans control the weather(to drive the climate REQUIRES control of the weather) and they get very angry when basic science is explained to them we humans do NOT control the weather.........

hilarious how so many young folks can now predict the future, amazing ability to proclaim exactly where and how much it will snow BEFORE the event happens....central bama has already been declared finished by the brilliant ones, nothing for the b'ham area

my hope for all snow lovers is this storm produces for everybody, i dont really care what any of the models say at this time, the real world is where this storm will happen.

is any of the stuff on radar this afternoon in mississippi making it to the ground?

i cant grasp how some already had the storm for Tuesday? they proclaim it was a big storm and didnt happen........i thought the storm was in the future?

please help me understand which storms are NOT "now casting" events?

in this forum when say a storm appears to be going to hit maybe 25% of the entire SE area  are comments made by some about this is a miss appropriate just because it will likely miss their backyard?

this storm was fun to watch and right now the water vapor loops show the basic path of it from canada through the SE and now booking up the east coast./.....that same loop also shows some energy moving se and some upper air feature about to move into texas south of el paso, that could be interacting soon?

i asked last night what was that dropping through montana south into wyoming and was told a non thing not part of this weeks system, but is sure appears to me it is something and could be the main player in fact? seems to be an upper level low in far western kansas now.

ty, that is sorta the point, indeed after joining in 2010 i have never been banned here and have only one warning point from several years ago.....i cant stop having interest in the weather and enjoy civil conversations on that topic.

no problem, their mods bash this place daily, my interest is in the actual weather, not in being part of any cliques here or anywhere else.....i limit my posting in an effort to comply with any and all rules.

hilarious seeing the mods elsewhere claiming to be big snow lovers posting silly one word posts which are 100% negative and declaring the winter is OVER....very happy they banned me and hope they enjoy being led around by spain park chris

why dont tv stations just read the other forum and fire their meteorologists? i ask because that place has 10 people that KNOW the future.

it is my lifelong interest in the weather that keeps me watching the weather and not getting excited or dismayed over any model run, no matter what any model says now or the next day i am interested in watching this news years eve unfold in the real world.

seems to me it was a very cold period immediately before snowameggdon of 2014 in birmingham bama