BillT

a low is nearing the baja area throwing moisture north and east reaching almost to oklahoma and cold air is dropping south north of there

"all other things being equal" that sum up the POINT for me all things are NOT ever equal so your sides entire position is based on NON existent NON reality.......YOUR side is assigning a power to co2 that it simply does NOT have.

29 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

That is not what bluewave or anyone has claimed. The claim is that Sun (like any main sequence star) is relatively stable in regards to it's luminosity. The variability in the radiative forcing is relatively small despite the magnitude of the radiative forcing being large. The change in radiative forcing of CO2 dominates over the change in radiative forcing of the Sun. Again, it's the change in the effects that are crucial in understanding the change in radiative forcing and thus the change in the heat uptake by the geosphere. Note that I have underlined change to drive home the point that it is the change in the system that puts pressure on the climate and ultimately the Arctic sea ice extents to also change.

For example, if the Sun were to experience a change of 0.25% in it's integrated luminosity then this is equivalent to 1360 W/m2 * 0.0025 / 4 = 0.85 W/m2 of forcing. But, a doubling of CO2 results in 5.35 * ln(560/280) = 3.7 W/m2 of forcing. That's more than 4x the effect. Plus, solar grand minimums are relatively short term compared to the long term impacts of CO2 which take 100s or even 1000s of years to die off to preindustrial levels. Note that a -0.25% change in TSI is considered to be on the high end of the forcing change for a hypothetical grand minimum.

"A solar minimum is no match for the CO2 forcing"......that is the claim made that clearly is saying co2 is more powerful than the SUN.......

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A solar minimum is no match for the CO2 forcing. There was a good paper out on this several years ago. As for the AMO, the sea ice was in decline during the last cold phase during the 80's into the mid-90's. Natural oscillations like the PDO and AMO can impact shorter term  rates of decline.  But the long term decline is a result of rising global and Arctic temperatures.

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/feulner/research/how-would-a-new-grand-minimum-of-solar-activity-affect-the-future-climate

there it is the clear claim that the tiny amount of co2 in our air is more powerful than the SUN.........your side of this cant be believed on any level.

2 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

It's true. The 2007 summer minimum was lower than in 2018. However, if you integrate the sea ice extents over the entire year and assuming 2018 follows the 2017 trajectory the remainder of the year (a reasonable assumption) you'll find that 2018 results in less ice than in 2007. Except that's really moot anyway. Keep in mind that when we say "decline" we are talking about a longterm secular decrease in sea ice extents. We are not in any way implying that every year will necessarily be lower than the previous. Natural variation is still very much in play. And we aren't necessarily even focused on just the summer minimum. The winter maximum and, of course, the yearly mean are equally important metrics.

Regarding your second point there may be some confusion as to what a greenhouse does.  CO2 and other polyatomic molecules (like H20, CH4, and CFCs) aren't sources of heat. What they do is disrupt the balance between Qin (the incoming shortwave radiation) and Qout (the outgoing longwave radiation). This imbalance creates a net positive gain in heat uptake in the geosphere (90% goes into the hydrosphere) until a new equilibrium is achieved such that Qin = Qout once again. It's really not much different at a conceptual level with the insulation in your home. All other things being equal your house will achieve an equilibrium at a lower temperature if there is no insulation. Again, CO2 is not a source of heat. What it does is impede the transmission of heat.

the incoming is both short and long wave radiation, and there is NO balance never has been, thermodynamics means the system seeks to find balance but because factors constantly change that balance is never found.......

since there was more ice this past summer than in 2007 where is this continuing decline in the arctic sea ice please?????....also the greenhouse effect is an insulating effect, please name one insulator than adds extra heat to any system????? i ask because seems to me co2 in no way adds to the total heat in our atmosphere.

when a person mentions "consensus science" as evidence they are admitting they know NOTHING about the most basic concepts of science......

"IF" and "may soon" are not science in any way they are political claims unbacked by any science at all.......

this thread is why i limit my posting here,   a group are claiming that humans control the weather(to drive the climate REQUIRES control of the weather) and they get very angry when basic science is explained to them we humans do NOT control the weather.........

my hope for all snow lovers is this storm produces for everybody, i dont really care what any of the models say at this time, the real world is where this storm will happen.

i cant grasp how some already had the storm for Tuesday? they proclaim it was a big storm and didnt happen........i thought the storm was in the future?

please help me understand which storms are NOT "now casting" events?

in this forum when say a storm appears to be going to hit maybe 25% of the entire SE area  are comments made by some about this is a miss appropriate just because it will likely miss their backyard?

this storm was fun to watch and right now the water vapor loops show the basic path of it from canada through the SE and now booking up the east coast./.....that same loop also shows some energy moving se and some upper air feature about to move into texas south of el paso, that could be interacting soon?

i asked last night what was that dropping through montana south into wyoming and was told a non thing not part of this weeks system, but is sure appears to me it is something and could be the main player in fact? seems to be an upper level low in far western kansas now.

ty, that is sorta the point, indeed after joining in 2010 i have never been banned here and have only one warning point from several years ago.....i cant stop having interest in the weather and enjoy civil conversations on that topic.

no problem, their mods bash this place daily, my interest is in the actual weather, not in being part of any cliques here or anywhere else.....i limit my posting in an effort to comply with any and all rules.

hilarious seeing the mods elsewhere claiming to be big snow lovers posting silly one word posts which are 100% negative and declaring the winter is OVER....very happy they banned me and hope they enjoy being led around by spain park chris

why dont tv stations just read the other forum and fire their meteorologists? i ask because that place has 10 people that KNOW the future.

it is my lifelong interest in the weather that keeps me watching the weather and not getting excited or dismayed over any model run, no matter what any model says now or the next day i am interested in watching this news years eve unfold in the real world.

seems to me it was a very cold period immediately before snowameggdon of 2014 in birmingham bama

the wishcasting about the sea ice was hilarious, so many saying lowest ice ever this year were so wrong and silent for weeks now.......

ty for the answer so it is 2 ways of expressing the SAME amount of ice that shows a very different picture, of the SAME amount of ice.....

how would the area and extent of a baseball diamond differ?    isnt the extent of the field also its area expressed in square meters? how far something extends is part of its AREA of coverage isnt it?

Just now, thess said:

Random time-killing question, do a lot/many of you guys have home weather stations? I always wonder when people are reporting obvs. 

have one here in empire alabama.....34.3 and dew point of 25.1...most important is the rising barometer stopped at 29.90 and dropped quickly to 29.84.......