peribonca

6 hours ago, George BM said:

Now some CAMs have up to 200+J/kg CAPE w/ steep LLLRs when the front moves through between midday and 3pm tomorrow. Some CAMs develop showers along/near said front. Given the thermodynamics and kinematics in place I would think there could be enhanced wind gusts, particularly w/ any heavier showers that form. Some smail hail would also looks possible w/ the most intense showers, along with a lightning bolt or two. Shower potential increases the further north you are in the area.

Would be pretty amazing if our biggest frozen event this winter was actually a hail storm

45 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said:

37, rain, thunder

Earlier idk if I had small hail or sleet mixed in

Coefficient radar suggests sleet heading up from Richmond towards the Northern Neck

38F already in Colonial Beach

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

Let's say the old weenie rule of coming north in the last 48 hours came true.  Are we basically sunk... or can we still back our way into like an inch if snow up here if the ULL were to trend closer to us in its path?

 

Dynamic storm, prime climo... Idgaf, I'm not giving up on it until I see it pouring rain in the deformation band. 

Tropical Tidbits down until 7pm btw

Someone between NE Georgia and the Maryland Piedmont is going to get smoked.... 

Lol at least there's still some time fort things to trend better (can't be worse than zero)

Gfs at 84h.... Usually having wintry precip in central NC is a good sign for us

Let's track the formation of the deformation! Nam not looking bad

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So what maybe we get another late March snow like 2018 and oh no if we have to wait an extra few weeks to get our 6 months of guaranteed warm weather. 

We're down to two seasons in the DMV... 5 months of November, 7 months of summer

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

I give us a 50/50 shot at getting a flake within a 75 mile radius in that pattern

that'll double my seasonal snowfall (if it was in fact a snowflake and not a small bird feather)! Can't wait. 

10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

DCA:  +8.8

IAD:  +9.7

BWI:  +11.0

Only good thing about a torch is that the law of averages will eventually swing in our favor (assuming this is not the new normal average of course haha).

Just venting... Our climate is really now just 7 months of November and 5 months of summer...

https://www.mountvernon.org/the-estate-gardens/ice/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=content_estate&fbclid=IwAR0l89oS5QOXsY4-KKH-M25jLwcnqmJDwt_UuSqld7EJLCjudzrruXutVP4&mibextid=Zxz2cZ

Just walked the dog in DC and had light flurries for the first time this year

1 hour ago, Ji said:

99.9999 percent of the country is below normal....guess which .000001 isnt

Alaska?

The surface low pressure on Saturday afternoon is trending closer to the coast. Anyone think we may end up getting some snow showers out of it? Gfs already showing a dusting in the tidewater.

9 minutes ago, H2O said:

How about shat the blinds?

Shart

Could be one of the few years where March is colder than January. 

Had a renegade shower roll through DC that started as rain, dropped the temp to 33F and ended as wet snow/sleet. Pretty impressive for mid April

There was a small event before the blizzard of January 2016 that dropped under an inch and paralysed traffic around the beltway... Could be similar tomorrow

Is the 12z GFS broken?

3 hours ago, peribonca said:

With how far west everything has trended this week the Dec 27 "event" on the 6z GFS looks like it's in a good spot

Watch the 12z GFS lining things up at 180

With how far west everything has trended this week the Dec 27 "event" on the 6z GFS looks like it's in a good spot ;)