weatherfide

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

College of dupage doesn't have all the members. I think it's just one member skewing the mean. There's one that drops 2 feet of snow on Montgomery Alabama. 

Where can you go to get all of them? WeatherBell?

Just now, GaWx said:

I’ll need to delete this very shortly because it is a screenshot taking up way too much of my attachment space:

Interesting. I have pivotal access, too, and saw that image, but I'm not sure how it's deriving it. It might be all sleet and freezing rain in southern AL and SW GA.

20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The 6Z GEFS went back colder with an increase in suppressed members and thus an increase again in deep S wintry members, especially from Macon SW to just N of Mobile. Those areas get hit pretty hard by 5 of 30 members. Also, 30% (9) of the 30 have significant and rather widespread IP/ZR in some of the SE. Two of these have a mix in far N FL. A good portion of the deep south wintry is IP/ZR.

I'm looking at the College of DuPage GEFS individual members and I'm not seeing the same results that you mention. Really not much showing up for the deep south at all. What source are you using for the GEFS member outputs?

GFS is world's different than ICON and GDPS. It looks like late March for most of the country. No cold, no ridge out west. If it's right, winter was indeed over last week.

34 minutes ago, GaWx said:

In ATL, record low maximums are in the 30s and 20s through March 18th. Plus you can get significant snow with a high in the 40s. You don’t need mean temps 30-40 BN even in mid March to get a snowstorm. For example, KATL’s heaviest snowfall since 1940, 3/24/1983, was 7.9” and the mean temp was only 18 BN.

I really want to see the snowfall mean start to improve in GA, SC and NC on the EPS. We are entering the target zone and outside of a few big hitters, there aren't many members with snowfall outside of the mountains. The 12Z 2/7/2024 CMCE and GEFS were even worse than the EPS.

II r

Out to 240 hours or so on the GEFS. No individual members with snow in the southeast. I'll check in again tomorrow, but this is not encouraging if you want snow in the southeast.

21 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Ouch

That potential storm is well out in fantasy land. I'm waiting on the GEFS for some ideas, though the last few runs of the GEFS haven't had many members with much snowfall in the southeast. Usually the means have been skewed by one or two big snow outputs.

Just now, lilj4425 said:

This grass ain’t always greener on the other side.

Plus I really miss the dancing blue blob!

Started out at 31.1 at my house this morning. Abundant frost. With the outlook continuing to present cold opportunities, this should help keep vulnerable plants asleep a little while longer in to Spring.

I think I'm coming back to Americanwx for awhile. Southernwx is getting weird, all high on hopium and not really grasping reality.

Reached 39.7 here. Already below freezing at 31.1 and falling like a rock. No wind tonight. It's gonna be another cold one!

I thought only the far northwest part of GA was really in play from the start? There was a run or two from the GFS showing some snow further south but it was pretty lonely on that hill.

I have 50 degrees and cloudy. Dewpoint is 44. If we get a little precipitation before the main line, it might drop down a bit more.

11 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It could also hold on the entire winter. We have seen that before.

Looking at the winter outlooks, it would seem that this pattern will repeat with quite a bit of frequency this winter. I'm betting I can get by with one tank of propane, so there is a silver lining.

9 minutes ago, SluggerWx said:

I really wish metro ATL and more of the northern ATL suburbs would have been placed under a Tornado Watch prior to the 11PM news cycle. 

Folks are going to go to bed tonight not even knowing about the Tornado Watch that's likely inbound. Hopefully they've been paying attention, but I wish they would have pulled the trigger by now.

Yeah, I don’t get that, either. They should have pulled the trigger.

2 hours ago, Cheeznado said:

Since winter is probably over here, the focus turns to heavy rain, check out some of these GEFS totals here- could be historic flooding if we really get 10-13" of rain like some of the members have.....

06Z 2/14/2019 guidance from the ICON and GFS suggest the heaviest axis of rain will be north of Atlanta. 0Z CMC was also north of Atlanta with the heaviest precip. This seems to suggest the affects on Atlanta will be marginal. Would you agree? Also, what mechanisms would be in play to drop the axis south? It seems to me that the SE ridge is depicted as strengthening through day 10. Wouldn't this push the best lift north as well? I'm thinking mild to warm with maybe up to an 1" of rain for Atlanta would be realistic in that scenario. 

I hate back-loaded winters. I rather have no winter.

19 minutes ago, skbl17 said:

I thought February 2015 was bad, but this is pathetic. At least back then the snow line was three miles to my north and I saw some snowflakes; now I don't even know when the RA/SN line will even make it to I-85, much less McDonough, before the whole thing is over.

What I fear is that people around here (the public, not the great people at AmWX) will say, "Oh, we had a winter storm warning and the weather people said we'd get 3" of snow, but instead I got half an inch of ice and no snow! Why should I ever listen to them again? They have no idea what they're talking 'bout!"

 

This is a true statement. They should have been much more cautious. Snow is extremely rare at this latitude on the earth. If there is any disagreement in modeling, go with the Euro!!!