MichaelJ

44/18.9 cloudy with occasional  light drizzle.

2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Not sure what field you're in but it's really not that easy. I had to help with a simple AI project with a LOT of budget. First you have to find the people which is difficult. Then there is a lot of trail and error. Simple things like finding discrepancies in finance programs can take a year to implement. Just not sure we're there yet for weather models... not to mention quantum computing is still very much in it's early years. But could be wrong and maybe you have more experience.  

Yes and just should keep things on perspective as to just how much we understand about our Atmosphere, not much. There are so many variable parameters that have to be collated into a cohesive solution and that does not even include the myraid of things we don't even know yet about our stochastic atmosphere

If the NAM amps this up again tomorrow, a lot of folks in the Triangle are going to get a LOT of sleet and ZR. However it is the NAM12K and I will wait for the 3K before I say it is likely to happen

Here is a good map of the reach of this CAD

58 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

People need to prepared for significant power outages in the piedmont

 

 

http://www.usawx.com/icesto3.jpg

I strongly disagree with this. IMO the Triad proper will see much more sleet and much less ZR because of the CAD keeping the 850's at or below freezing during the entire event.

Here is te latest projection for my area, mostly sleet it seems

http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/nam/current/KGSO/prec.png

DT is SUCH a

Guys, the RGEM is almost always overdone on the temps and amount of qpf so I would disregard it for the present. Same goes for the 12KM NAM, use the 3KM because of it's higher resolution hones in more on the 2meter temps. The 3K NAM shows Triad mostly in the 31-33 temp range during a lot of the storm

10 hours ago, Avdave said:

What are you basing the FEB/March mild to warm? 

Sorry Dave, just now saw this. I base it on the Nina history, the indices look to be turning against us in late Jan ( AO becoming positive, PNA going neutral to negative, MJO heading into the warm phases and the NAO going pretty neutral and the EPO going positive)

5 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

Good luck getting that!  I knew we were sunk when I woke up at 3am and the temps were still around 37 and the radar was anemic.  I'll take my rate driven dusting this afternoon and join you in February.

Guys be careful wishing for Feb/March, both look to be mild to warm right now (which is typical of Nina's) so stay focused on Jan as it might be the only chance we have

I think eyewall's map will end up being pretty darn close. Here at my weather station this morning it was 23.6 at 5:55AM

I would start moving away from what the 12K NAM shows and start paying serious attention to the 3K NAM from now on

Guys that is only until 7:00 PM saturday

3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

12z models are a crush job for wnc! Foot plus totals.

Look at the HRRR just posted, not very impressive outside the mountains

Everybody needs to remember the Global models don't do as well this close to an event, rely more on the HRRR and Nam for now time

I know for people in Ga, SC, Chsrlotte and Raleigh this was a huge bust and I am sorry for you it was. One thing to learn from this is that Climo is very important when looking at model forecasts which do not take much of that into consideration. The favored areas may start out looking like they will not do well while other areas seem to be in the "bullseye" from 10, 5 or even 1 day away but the usual progression of things with the N/W trend, warm noses, and qpf totals will not be as predicted/expected. The rules are not going to change just because we want them to or some model tells us they will, "just this once". The NAM is awful over 48 hours but I would not bet against it under that time frame no matter what the Global models are saying.