West Point, NY

Just now, NJwx85 said:

No that's TonyLovesSnow and it's nothing but wishcasting. 

With belligerence. 

29 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

NYC’s ceiling on this event is probably 7-8 inches.  If I had to guess now I would say they’ll get 3-5 

I understand that. He is entertaining an all snow /mostly snow event which as modeled consists of 1.5"+ liquid QPF just North of 0 @ 850. That would be double digit totals

1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

50 miles south trend and New York City stays all snow. Just need that primary to die off a bit earlier and the new low to form a bit more south. Which is possible because we still have about 84 hrs till go time.

Is it 30?, 50?, next time 75? You act like NYC is Albany. There is a reason you only average 27" inches a year. Most foot plus storms are supposed to be to your North. You are like a homeless person by the Port Authority except you are begging for snow. 

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

As you can see, by this panel the 850mb freezing line is already into the Hudson Valley

Still getting smoked up here in Cornwall at 12z. Would have well over a foot by then with these rates. Line not going much further north of there either

4 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Where are you located? Because I saw the most 90s in a long time here

Near West Point. NYC did not see the most 90s in a long time. 

14 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Um...what cooling cycle? The temperatures for the past few years have been anything but cool.

This summer alone set records for highest and most sustained dews with record warm minimums.

We are heading into a decadal cooling cycle. The oceans lag behind as they cool much slower than the air but it is coming. Next year you will start to see a difference. The record warm minimums were a result of a consistent Southerly flow all summer off the warm water. Conversely, we didn't see many 90 degree days 

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Cold winters like that will probably never happen again. Occasionally we can get highly anomalous cold months (Feb 2015) and even cold winters like 13/14 & 14/15 but those are the exceptions. 

I think snowfall will average AN for another decade or so, but then the warming climate will quickly overwhelm us and drastically reduce our averages. 

Keep drinking the kool-aid. LOL. Between the naturally cooling cycle we are entering combined with an extremely quiet sunspot minimum, I'm confident that will overwhelm the 1 extra molecule of CO2 added per 10k molecules of air that is forecast to lead to our planetary demise. 

3 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Would I be incorrect in interpreting that statement to mean we may be going back to winters of less snow and less severe cold?

Less snow and more cold. I don't know how you think winters have been severe cold in recent memory. Severe cold winters were in the 1970's

Sleet.. 32...11 inches on the day here at the base of Storm King Mtn in Cornwall on Hudson. 

22 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

It was up to an inch, ya know just like Upton had this morning. Still probably the same with room for more .

Dude, you poo pooed every model that had significant accumulations despite under modeled Arctic HP and record low DP's draining way South. The writing was on the wall last night for just about everyone here but you

5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

And if you're going to troll at least use the proper context. It was describing a model run that was an absolute torch

You were using it to back your constant downplaying of the storm in and around the city so it is fair game. 

4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yep. Can't see more than getting more than an inch or two in NYC.

Last night it was "zero" 

7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

That's the old "oh s**t" low confidence range. 

Flamethrower?

8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

It's not the wrong map. This shows what's on the ground. Not magically 10:1 sleet

If you think the Catskills and Berks will have 3 in OTG on Friday morning I have a bridge to sell you. LOL

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Snow should come in between 1-2PM from Southwest to Northeast and persist for a few hours. First areas to changeover will be North of Philly into Western Central NJ by 4PM. The city should then mix with rain around 5PM. At that time, the heavier precip should be overhead and signs point to some dynamic cooling taking place. The city and coast should be stuck in a mix until around 8PM, possibly lasting a bit longer before finally changing over to rain. Further N&W, things become icy, with a warm push gradually flipping over NE NJ around 10-11PM. Further inland in places like Vernon and West Milford, they probably never get above freezing at the surface. Then everyone flips back over to snow as the ULL swings through around sunrise and 1-2PM it's all over.

You think it flips that late in Bergen Cty? If so, you get a good dump of snow. Would've thought by 8 or 9 the mix line would slide North of you. 7 hrs of snow on front end of this will not be a marginal event. Good luck. 

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It shows several inches

Wrong map

There's no arguing with him. He's gonna show you clown maps that show the Catskills and Berks with 3 inches to make his flamethrower argument. 

2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

An inch.

Try the 12k.

This is why this thread is unreadable. Two minutes ago you have a guy yelling the NAM is a flamethrower. 

Now that I live at the base of Storm King Mtn in Cornwall on Hudson, I may have to take my sled dog up the trail around the corner from my house to gain back the 750' in elevation I lost moving from Harriman. 210' isn't cutting it in Nov for decent accumulations. 

First accumulations likely on Thursday evening from Orange on North. Question is whether it is a couple of inches of snow or a Sleet fest. 

Snowed hard enough at the end of the Army game for 10 min to whiten the ground at Michie Stadium. 

17 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 78degs., or 4degs. AN 

Month to date is  +3.2[79.2].     Should be +3.5[78.7] by the 24th.

Not understanding talk about a pattern change becoming apparent by end of the month.   CFS has a +200m ridge for us during the month of Sept. on average.   Last days of Aug. and LDW look AN.

In fact the CFS does not budge till Feb. with this +200m which is INSANE and obviously wrong, but by how much and when/where?  The next 5 months can't be +5 to +10 can they??????

Will anxiously await your predicted record heat the last 10 days of the month before I worry about +10 for next 5 months

1 hour ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Welcome to the snowhole. In the winter months, you get a great up close look of the river ice at the Cornwall marina.

Everywhere I've lived, extreme weather followed me. Cat 5 Charley missed my hose by 8 miles in 2004. They hadn't had a major in SW Florida since 1960. Moved up to Lk George and the VD storm hit me with 37 inches, the largest storm in memory there. The 26 inches (48 in 11 days) I got in Harriman this year along with the 16" pre Halloween storm a few yrs back was phenomenal. While I may be in a snow hole, watch for all kinds of severe weather to hit there soon enough. LOL

11 hours ago, CIK62 said:

RWTT for the next 90 days has the Northeast as the most AN, in an already, entirely AN lower 48.  Precip. is Normal for the lower48, except the southeast and eastern Gulf.

 Nationwide heatwave for Labor Day period.

Good luck with that. LOL. 

Not bad here in Harriman. 60 mph winds for about 3 min as the pink scud cloud came over and then just your run of the mill tstorm that lasted 90 min.