snowwors2

You know? I was going to post something about this earlier. David Murphy is always conservative on storms. Almost LOL conservative.

I cannot believe how terrible David Murphy is…

Watching a noon recording and he just said "some" of the "long-range" models are calling for "some" snow…

It's a sin what he gets paid for that kind of dribble!!!

He's more like that terrible Mrs. fix it on channel 6…

He's Mr. fix-it always handing out obvious stupid advice!

Mainly much colder than previous forecasts for early week and maybe a little more snow with the arctic wave on Sunday into Monday...he very well may be right

Thanks for clarifying and always keeping "us" updated on JB's latest!

JB posting on the 12z Euro - sees it correcting on it's "west bias" and is now close to an east coast snow event from Northern PA up thru New England. Then he sees a 2nd storm forming on the arctic front on sunday with a low inland over GA and another one organizing on the VA capes and the model goes from t-.10 to 0.3 to 0.6 and some of that at 20:1. Also says forecasts will bust here early in the week as it will be much colder than current forecasts with single digits spreading southbound.

"no hype" with snowmagedon?

Uhhhhh…

That would be what's called "sarcasm"!

I was surprised this morning to see that Verizon doesn't carry TWC as of today. I discovered this because I liked weatherscan (owned by TWC) as a local area resource for current conditions (Allentown, Trenton, PHL, Wilmington, AC and Dover), and it is there no more. Apparently TWC has been replaced by Accuweather (on Verizon, in this area at least).

I believe TWC is owned by NBC Comcast and, if correct, ergo that decision!

From what I read "Chester PA to Jackson NJ" is his jackpot zone. He didn't give any totals.

Ok..thanks!

So how much is he calling for?

It is Trending his way as we speak....

Been this way all winter it seems!

just posted on bastadi twitter feed

@WGGBWeather @1stHandWeather

weekend shot worse, colder, more expansive further west. Outrageous GFS run tonight

GFS run tonight from m plains to se as bad as it gets.1 arctic attack after another. 0 to NYC 32 to Orl,blizzard possible lakes to ma wknd

Latest from Larry Cosgrove this evening

 

"Despite the various computer models either ignoring or downplaying its existence, a huge storm and frontal structure over the High Plains is set to make a mark on sensible weather across the eastern two-thirds of the nation. The equations appear to still be mishandling this broad feature, and may in fact be too far north with the track of the surface low and its upper components. I say this because there is a wide area of Arctic air across the Great Lakes into the Northeast, and the natural tendency for disturbances is to find the path of least resistance. So if you are asking me to agree with the idea that the low pressure at surface will move headlong into a cAk dome covering Quebec and New England, my answer would be no.

What I think is going to happen is that the storm will track from SE MO to S OH, then start to re-organize in a center jump fashion into N VA on early Monday morning. I liked the 12z NAM version of events, which would take the low pressure system off of Cape May NJ, deepen the center to about 988MB crossing the 40N, 70 W "Benchmark", and then speed a powerful cyclone into Halifax NS by Monday night. The 850MB freeze line will likely bulge northward above the Pennsylvania Turnpike early on Groundhog Day, but surface temperatures may be slower to respond. For this reason, sleet and freezing rain may be a problem for parts of E OH....S PA....WV....N MD....N DE....and NJ. I can even see a situation where the NYC/LI metro and immediate coastline of CT get into a frozen/liquid precipitation tussle for a few hours on Monday. Afterwards, strong north winds will usher the snow southward before ending. The heavy snow threat should run from IA....N, C IL....N IN....S Lower MI....N OH....N, C PA....N NJ....NY....CT....RI....MA....S VT....C, S NH....C, E ME....NB. Most accumulations in that zone will run between 6 - 10 inches. But some communities in PA, NY and New England could have as much as 15 inches of wind blown snowfall before the low exits the scene on Tuesday.

"

Thank you for posting Larry's thoughts here...

Please continue!

Check his Facebook.... Pegged the north trend before it started on the models.

I avoid Facebook at all costs...

details appreciated..

Thanks!

cosgrove thoughts?

Anyone know what Larry Cosgroves thoughts are?

love larry c...

visited my (now 27 year old) son's second grade glenside elem class way back when he was on local philly tv...

bring him back!!

i should do facebook just so I can follow him!

Cosgrove going with 8"+ and timetable for parts of the area.

wow..

for who and where did you see that?

11pm tv rundown....

kathy orr

1-3" nw burbs (said to watch out for those "heavy bands of rain moving in on the radar"..this was actually the heavy sleet some of us saw)

cecily tynan

downgraded to C- 2" (nearly there already and snowing very hard but she explained storm details so much better than kathy orr)

sheena parveen

not really clear on predicted totals but showed a model with 1-2" ( again, fairly good analysis but always miss hurricane at 11pm)

based on current snow rates, radar and nearly 2" already, I think all three will be too low with final amounts!!

NOT according to Hurricane for beginnning of next week...

even a shot that we transition over to snow by Monday!

similar (on a smaller scale) to two weeks ago when everyone thought the rain would switch over around midnight and it actually kicked in by 6pm...

I actually enjoy watching these type of (rain to snow) storms unfold as there is often that element of surprise...

seem to recall a huge bust back on Dec 31, 1975 (the year they moved the liberty bell)...

just rain was forcasted and woke up to a foot of snow!!

NICE!!!

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk

Well...

Hell yeh!!!!!

....thanks Larry for a great read today!