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redbanknjandbigbasslakepa

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Everything posted by redbanknjandbigbasslakepa

  1. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    Yeah a couple days of heat but nobody talking about the glorious low 80 no humidity stretch on the backend next week.
  2. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    Euro not only is a torchfest this weekend but also becomes a disaster in the longer range with deep western trough and big SE ridge. Record warmth late January?
  3. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    I thought the MJO wasn’t going back into phase 5?
  4. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    Meaning couple inches maybe at least into Staten Island, Long Island. Late adjustments are north as forky has illustrated
  5. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    The substantial snow for nyc doesn’t come until tomorrow night-mon morn from the coastal.
  6. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    NAM and Euro just dropped 12-18” cold powder on DC proper
  7. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    NAM and Euro just dropped a cold 18” on DC proper
  8. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    I agree it’s weak and may not have a huge influence, but it will have some and is no help. Next weekend is not a good setup aside from well interior.
  9. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    I said a few days ago that the MJO was headed rapidly out of 8 and into 5. Don Sutherland noted the same, but everyone scoffed. It’s headed to 5 and plays into the cutter next weekend. That cutter may flip things to a better pattern by 2/1.
  10. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    Hopefully the big cutter next weekend helps the North Atlantic region and sets the stage for between 1/25-2/1 which will be our first chance of a moderate snowfall. With the ridge centered far west and nothing to stop the southeast ridge from pumping that storm for 1/19-1/20 looks to cut far west towards Midwest. Euro very ugly last night and GFS illustrating it well now too. That one is a relatively easy call given the positioning of the PNA and lack of any blocking.
  11. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    Hopefully the big cutter next weekend helps the North Atlantic region and sets the stage for between 1/25-2/1 which will be our first chance of a moderate snowfall. With the ridge centered far west and nothing to stop the southeast ridge from pumping that storm for 1/19-1/20 looks to cut far west towards Midwest. Euro very ugly last night and GFS illustrating it well now too. That one is a relatively easy call given the positioning of the PNA and lack of any blocking.
  12. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    We need a big cutter to flip this pattern and get some higher heights in the NAO region. Looks like we’ll get that next weekend with a big rainstorm. I think between 1/25-2/1 we could see a somewhat more favorable pattern. Until then no snow in NYC aside of a flurry or shower.
  13. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    Don’t look now but medium to longer range is starting to break down too.
  14. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    So Don must have no clue either.
  15. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    Per Don Sutherland: “Beyond Phase 8, the MJO forecast becomes more muddled. The EPS rapidly takes it to phase 5, mainly at a low amplitude by January 21. The GEFS takes it to a low amplitude and then loops it back into Phase 7. Based on a blend of the guidance, the baseline scenario is that the MJO would gradually move through Phase 8 at a high but lowering amplitude.”
  16. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    Actually the EPS, our statistically best medium to longer range forecasting tool is taking the MJO rapidly back into phase 5. So don’t get too excited yet there buddy.
  17. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    Easy bro, you’re like an economist of weather forecasting. Predicted 10 out of the last two recessions.
  18. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    Forget the GFS , it stinks and they just told you it’s broken anyway.
  19. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    Long range starting to fall apart again. Maybe hitting on the mjo flying through 7/8 back into 5
  20. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    Long range starting to fall apart again. Maybe hitting on the mjo flying through 7/8 back into 5
  21. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    I’d pass on Stratton as it is very expensive, can be crowded and an overall poor experience. It’s more of a gondola and pumpkin latte crowd than a quality skiing experience. For a beginner looking for cruising terrain I’d give Okemo, Bretton Woods and Bromley a shot. For an experienced skier looking for terrain, when there is quality natural snow there is nothing better on the east coast than Magic Mtn.
  22. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    Things appear to be lining up for a 2010 Jan-March repeat
  23. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    Late month now Ant, come on? You keep moving those goal posts out and whistling by the graveyard. At this rate it'll be did the groundhog see his shadow? Coming quick.
  24. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    Appreciate his knowledge and efforts, but just to keep it in the no spin zone, Iso was incorrect on his December prediction. So things could turn around for him but as of now his seasonal forecast has missed the mark.
  25. redbanknjandbigbasslakepa
    Just gonna send it
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