Jim Marusak

quick question here. a bit more theoretical, but also maybe affecting the storm about to loop up and hit the eastern great lakes and the northeast. Given that explosion in the volcano down in Tonga overnight, I'm seeing reports of sonic booms heard from it as far away as the south coast of Alaska, and pressure waves from the blast being seen on barometers all the way into southern Ontario and Quebec, upstate NY, and New Orleans. And I'm sure plenty of those ripples are also aloft.

So, what will those pressure waves do if they're picked up by the models? and what could those waves do to the synoptic environment of the upcoming east coast storm given how far they've propagated? could it actually shift the path of the storm directionally just a little bit in a way models may not pick up?

thinking river-problem-wise, here's where I am seeing the most potential river flooding flooding problems, given the latest ensembles and latest op runs.

• Susquehanna River - south of Bloomsburg/Sunbury gauge-points.
• Delaware River - near/south of Allentown/Bethlehem/Easton
• Lehigh River - All points south of Francis Walter Dam
• Schuykill river - full length
• all north/central NJ river systems away from the Delaware Basin
• Potomac River - all points downstream from Cumberland Md, including DC.

this doesn't include local creeks and streams, where local heavy rainfalls will make things more problematic, for shorter times, as well as urban street flooding.

btw, The Waffle House Index just went thru the roof.

and as I type that, Watch 399 is out. counties in MN involved, roughly DLH to STP and ANE (not including MSP). WI Counties, DLH area to GRB, LSE to MKE, including MSN, EAU, and AUW.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0399.html

ok. just was wondering. because those RAOBS might be what is the final piece they're looking at (as well as the storms up in NW Itasca County).

Just now, Indystorm said:

700mb temps still 10-12 in the affected area where we anticipate a watch.  Cap?

off the MPX RAOB, or INL?

so, your thoughts...  are we waiting on the 00Z RAOBS for the watch issuance, or for more TCU's to go up quickly?

31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... all good questions. 

I don't know ...where does San Francisco situate theirs... Chicago on the Lake front...  Miami.. ?   New York City has Laguardia and Kennedy, but I think but they also have a downtown NWS ob site if I'm not mistaken and I could be - I'll take a look...    But point being, a wish list item is that the subject be more seriously studied - I think it's just a low priority aspect to everyone accept nerds maybe.

Say a day of + 20 C 850 mb dragon tongue is coming around a TV summer ridge node... Logan can often be the hottest temperature east of the Mississippi ...but even then a west wind may be unrealistic ( because although it is a islet, the western side of it in practical terms doesn't significantly offer any marine modulation, so it's hyperbole in that sense to call it an island). From late June through early August in that synoptic scenario, Logan's site being crisscrossed by tarmac, otherwise flat expanses under bake sun, serrated by observation and/or tin-pusher towers and metal hanger spaces ...  It gooses the temp and so even screws up the west wind scenario.

But you are right ...any vector that is more E than 185 ( or 10 the other way) degrees on the canonical direction dial pollutes the site down to the oceanic boundary layer - incontrovertibly so ... - and then the evening new guys/gals have go out of their way constantly remind, " ...but keep in mind that temperature doesn't represent what it's like on the western side of the city"  - where there are actual physical bodies not coursing through heavily air conditioned man-made tubes and atrial settings. 

 

that downtown site is in Central Park (KNYC).

but I would think the TV newspeople would have a handle on that (unless they are completely on their first week in the market). There's some real close obs sites to the city of Boston that can lay out the sea breeze fairly well for them. And if they had to, I would think the DoT in Mass would also allow their cameras and road sensors to be included to show the sea breeze depth.

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Lol, and while they are at it - 'be nice if they could relocate/re-officiate Boston's official reporting site as not being located out in the in cold Labrador termination waters of Cape Cod Bay while they are at it...  Oy - we dream.

Not sure if you are aware, but Logan Airport is the official "Boston" ob site, which in a practical civilian sense and sensibility ?  Absurd and always has been.  Only when the wind is west ... perhaps 50% of the time granted, does that justly represent Boston - has always been just utterly a statistical fallacy otherwise  -

It's a marine -hybrid climate out there where that site sets upon an island on west shore side of the Bay... 

i know that coastal site can be a total pain when the breeze is coming in off the bay. But where in Boston would you put the official site for the city, if you had a choice? Downtown Crossing? Boston Common? the Back Bay? Fenway Park? somewhere else in the city?

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Apparently ...they were discontinued as of March 31 citing site stability due to erosion as the primary factor/safety for personnel access to the station.  I don't "think" it's intended to be permanent based upon the content provided here,

https://www.weather.gov/media/box/Chatham_Closure.pdf

thanks. hope they can relocate it soon, whether to Logan Airport or at the NWS office near Norton.

quick question. are there any RAOBS going up from Chatham MA any more? did they relocate the UA station to the Boston NWS office? or something else wrong? thanks.

if anyone didn't take a look at the VAD/VWP from BMX and MXX yet, please look at the trend over the last hour. dynamics are improving with time.

yea, it's starting to look like the initial warm sector wave is diminishing. But the 2nd, frontal wave of strong storms will be developing within the next few hours. we're not done yet.

Just now, Cartier God said:

storm near claude texas is starting to strengthen

looking at the frames when the outflow first started getting sucked into the northern cell to the latest frames where the cell south of Claude just went ballistic the last few frames, I wonder if maybe the upper cell ingesting that southern cell's outflow may have actually given the southern storm better life by allowing a freer outflow channel aloft compared to when the storms were back by I-27.

latest velocity signatures down between Lake Tanglewood and TX 207 looks multi-vortex again. must be a real impressive show. but I saw a lot of chasers on the GR-3 moving from the town of Claude to the west of the storm. the way it's traveling, it almost looks like they should have stayed put near Claude as the storm will be in perfect view from there and safely to the west.

big question here. when the line of thunderstorms northwest of AMA end up potentially meeting the supercell causing all the oohs and ahs south of Lake Tanglewood, near Pullman and Saint Francis, near and east of the Amarillo NWS office? hopefully the supercell gets shoved east, but not sure how this environment will handle it.

any iffyness in the vertical wind profile is definitely gone on the Amarillo doppler VWP. so the environment ahead looks great. and latest doppler-indicated strm tops out of Amarillo is showing tops on these cells near 45-48kft. surrounding VWP's: MAF is perfect, FDR is showing a bit of VBV on occasion near 8-10kft, but it's only intermittent. otherwise it looks ok. so as time heads on, don't see any real problems immediately upstream.

well, my older brother in the Honey Pot Section of Nanticoke in Luzerne County (elevation 900 msl) has 2.5" as of 1753EST.

3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Hah maybe they forgot to change the units from cm to inches. Funny thing is that still would convert to 18-24" there, lol.

 

that would actually be reasonable, almost inline with the 00Z NAM.

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Incredible amounts on Rgem a bit east from before but thinking maybe a 40" total.

 

Edit....46 inches!

I'm thinking someone took the 00Z Canadian R-Gem and gave either their latent heat equations the LFM treatment or treated the upslope into the southern Poconos the old Canadian Regional lower mainland of BC treatment. no way in heck the Lehigh Valley and I-78 corridor down to the Reading Outlets see 40-55" of snow out of this event.

1 hour ago, pawatch said:

West Branch up here crested at 17.59 up here. Was predicting 19' 

136,000 cubic ft per second is a lot of water moving really fast. 10,000 is the average so it's basically 13.6 times your average flow. 

Be Careful!!

20 degrees for the low this morning. 

looks like Wilkes Barre is now cresting near 26ft (~150000 cfs). That is a lot less than was predicted, which is good news for a lot of people downstream on the north branch.

Susquehanna's crested in Conklin, Binghamton, and Vestal NY. still looking to have a moderate flood up and down the North Branch, but not as ugly as feared this morning.

good to hear on the lack of ice upstream. that would be a real complication if there was a bunch up there.

2 hours ago, canderson said:

Predictions have the Susquehanna in Harrisburg reaching 19’ Saturday - that’s moderate flooding here. Basements impacted mostly. 

Upstream river forecast crest numbers are getting a bit scary.

• Sunbury - mod flood - 27 ft
• Danville - mod flood - 26.6 ft
• Bloomsburg - mod - 26.4 ft
• Wilkes Barre Courthouse - major - 33.7 ft
• Meshoppen - moderate - 36.4 ft
• Towanda - Moderate/Major 24ft
• Waverly - major - 20ft

these types of numbers are looking an awful lot like January 1996 style numbers. And NWS-Binghamton is hinting there may be some chunks of ice in the Susquehanna as well, which may make things worse if they jam under a bridge. Let's hope this isn't the case on Christmas day.

a bit of snow melted during the transition, and there's a bunch of blowing and drifting going on as well up here in St Paul's north end. Not going to bother trying to get a measurement hear at the apt complex until things calm down in the morning.

wind chills across the metro are ranging from -2 to -10F attm.

temps at MSP airport ..

before fropa - 15Z +7C

last hour - 00z  -9C and dropping.