hobbes9

2 hours ago, IronTy said:

JB says GFS too far North for Saturday.  He likes the direct hit for DMV, I think based on the AI model.  Anybody know where to get that?  

Euro GraphCast is what he's talking about. You can also read more about it here.

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Anyone got the latest model money lines?

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58 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Do we really expect the GFS to cave? I mean it’s more locked in than prisoners at the top federal prison. It really doesn’t want to budge. But do Kings ever want to give up the throne?

GEFS snow mean progression. Didn't realize 6z was as good as it was?

15 minutes ago, Snowmadness said:

Long time lurker, Saw this posted in Southeastern Forum

Dec 23rd 2010 storm shifted west last two days 

 

 

Generally I'm a lurker as well, but that was 21 years and multiple versions of the models ago. Impossible? No. But less likely than such things used to be. A few years ago, you could ALWAYS count on the west trend and knew where the "good spots" were 2, 3, 4, and 5 days out. Computing, our understanding of atmospheric dynamics, and all of that put into the models, have almost all gotten better.

If I'm gonna hang my hopes on something, it ain't gonna be that.

986mb over HGR at 18z.

Interesting when compared to 12z.

22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Monday and Friday. Say it with me you pancake eating motherf*ckers. ...

 

Jan '96 no matter what.

While waiting on the 0z GFS, I haven't found anything else that puts things side-by-side like this. Helps compare the models QPF outputs (as I've always been a visual person).

Euro complete whiff on Wave 2 for EZF and north...

Yes please and thank you.

Had a rookie/lurker question to ask looking at the 500mb map. It looks as if the true cold is kind of walled off at/above the great lakes which would make the "source" of cold the no man's land between the lakes and the system as it moves through the area? If I'm reading this right, that would mean there's not much to stop it from drawing in more warm air if the system continues to amplify as it moves up the coast and temps would at best be marginal? Thank you all for the knowledge you continue to provide.

1 minute ago, SnowCane said:

Pics or it didn’t happen 

I found the ice interesting as well.

Mixing along 95 on the UKIE looks to keep totals down on the clown maps from 78-90. QPF looks quite good and uniform. Generally 1-1.5" for the forum?

GEFS trend pushing QPF a bit farther south as well. 1" line goes from central PA to almost the M/D line over the last few runs.

Para only really shows the WAA with no coastal?

ETA: some backside, perhaps .1-.2" QPF? Decent WAA QPF though.

33.6/31.8 with sleet mixing in over the past 15 minutes. 0.04" of liquid until now.

37/30 w/drizzle

40/29 in Fairfax Station. Higher than I'd prefer but I always expected slop.

Temps down to 30 in Fairfax Station, but it's a mix out there now.

Fairfax Station, holding at 32 with light snow. Car, sidewalk, and mulch is getting covered.

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Okay, I am leaving no stone unturned. The NAM looks good. That is if you can get beyond the fact that I am talking the NAM, at range and then extrapolating a couple days beyond to boot.  Seeing good separation between the NS and the SW in the western US to hopefully minimize the interaction between the two beyond the end of the extended. .

If only the DGEX was still around...