tson96

2" Currently light snow falling.

19F

Quite the over achiever!

-9f

Big dump coming?

NAM looks like it might hit us lightly to moderately, but I just can't look at that model with any seriousness beyond like 60 hours!! The GFS looked better than it's 6Z run, but the energy swinging across the great lakes is still pushing the trajectory to our east too much.

Right now, I am kind of taking the op runs with a pinch of salt and hugging the ensembles... With this many options on the table, and this much complexity, the ens are the only way to try and make sense of this IMO.

Thanks! 57 models and nothing on!

I really don't know what to think about Wednesday's event... I think we see some snow, but I have a feeling that we are going to get fringed.. I like the Euro and it's ensembles last night, but I don't know if I buy it yet.. I will be watching the 12Z guidance closely.

Yea I hear you. Heavy QPF sounds like mixing may be an issue. No mixing then light QPF. What do you make of the 12Z NAM?

I need to make time to watch the concerts but the documentary on Darkness was very good. It's amazing how many songs he wrote for that album to only use a select few, which is why there is this "new" stuff. Also, you can finally buy the album or songs from the 25th Anniversary of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame concert from 2009. I had a bootleg of that from the night that Bruce and the E Street Band were the house band but couldn't get anything from the first night when U2 filled that roll so I was glad to see this available. So I got all of the Bruce, U2, and Metallica stuff but there's plenty others that were involved. A heads up that if you try to get it from iTunes Jungleland is available only with the album only but if you get it from Amazon you can get it as a single along with everything else. It's all worth checking out.

Back on topic, the winds have been steadily increasing here, lots of snow blowing off the rooftops.

Sorry, just a little more brain dead than usual. The documentary The Promise -- saw it on HBO the first time it was on. Great stuff! The original version of Factory (same music completely different story/lyrics) was so cool. Glad the second version made the album. I was working in a factory at the time during summer break and that song just floored me. It was so dead on. I got the Darkness box set for Christmas. Still have to watch the Houston show DVD but that will mean a mean hangover the next day so some planning is required.

Back on topic...

Great AFD out of Albany...

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE LONG TERM FEATURES A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM

THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN

OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE SCALE TELECONNECTION INDICES FOR THE EXTENDED

TIME FRAME DEPICT A STRONG +PNA...COUPLED WITH AN -AO INDICATIVE OF

A HIGH AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE NAO IS

ACTUALLY WEAKLY NEGATIVE...AND TRENDING NEUTRAL. CSTAR RESEARCH

WITH THE UNIVERSITY AT ALBANY 5-7 YEARS AGO HAS SHOWN A +PNA WITH A

NEUTRAL TRENDING NAO PATTERN CAN BE A WARNING FLAG FOR A POTENTIAL

MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER CYCLONE. THE ALY FCST OFFICE HAS HAD THIS

STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND WE

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF A BLOCKBUSTER WINTER STORM

IN THAT PRODUCT.

MONDAY NIGHT...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE

NORTHEAST WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOWS

WILL BE 0 TO 10 BELOW FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...AND 10 TO 20

BELOW TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM

DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...AND THE NRN

GULF...WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

TUESDAY...THE ECMWF...CAN GGEM...GEFS MEAN...AND HPC ARE IN GOOD

AGREEMENT AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVER THE MID

ATLANTIC REGION/NORTHEAST...AS AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE FORMS OVER THE

DEEP SOUTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION MAY ERUPT OVER FLORIDA LATE

TUESDAY...AS A STRONG H500 UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE LOWER MS

RIVER VALLEY. LATE TUE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO THE SRN

FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT...WE HAVE FOLLOWED AN HPC/ECMWF/GEFS

MEAN SCENARIO FOR A MILLER TYPE-A WINTER CYCLONE TO FORM NEAR THE

SC/GA COAST TUE NIGHT. OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL OCCUR WELL IN ADVANCE

OF THE WAVE...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH

SLOWLY RETREATING EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WE PLACED LOW CHANCES OF

SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE

NORTH...AS IT MAY TAKE TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE. THE GFS HAS

TROUBLE PHASING THE ENERGY ON WED FOR THE MAJOR CYCLONE...WITH THE

ECMWF...CAN GGEM...AND HPC RIDING THE STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE ARE LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL 1-2"+ INCH QPF EVENT IF THE ECMWF

AND CAN GGEM IS RIGHT. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER WITH THE

ERN MOST TRACK OF THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. WE HAVE

GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS WED-WED NIGHT. THIS STORM MAY HAVE SOME

MIX PCPN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...IF IT HUGS THE

COAST. WE KEPT THE PCPN...AS SNOW...AND IF IT MATERIALIZES WE MAY

NEED YARD STICKS TO MEASURE THE SNOWFALL...SINCE A TREMENDOUS

MOISTURE FETCH IS EXPECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC.

AN ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TO FORM FROM THE E/NE

ACCORDING TO ECMWF AT 50-70 KTS.

3.5" here. You mean the new Darkness box set that includes The Promise?? yes.

NWS Albany just upped the amounts for POU

4-8 now. Also took mix out of next week's forecast.

12Z GFS -- POU soundings? All frozen?

Thks

I went outside, stuck a yardstick in the driveway, 10". Call it 14.1" without settling. Only kidding, not very scientific. That massive band sat just to my east so I think we got robbed a bit. Substance, etc.

10" here. Nice dump!

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY

1000 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY...THEN A COASTAL STORM

WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH SNOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE

FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY BUT COLD WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 1000 AM...FLURRIES STILL TAKING PLACE BUT RADAR RETURNS HAVE

WEAKENED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. APPARENTLY SOME SORT OF

SEEDER FEEDER PROCESS GOING ON WITH ENHANCED HIGH CLOUDS...AHEAD OF

THE DEVELOPING STORM UPSTREAM.

LOW CLOUDS MIGHT HAVE BEEN SHIPPED FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN AS THE

FLURRIES ARE MOVING FROM THE NORTH. THE H20 LP ALSO INDICATES A

POSSIBLE VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN ONE.

EITHER WAY...INNOCUOUS SNOW AND CERTAINLY NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO

THE UPCOMING STORM. MENTION FLURRIES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING

FROM THE CD NORTHWARD.

DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER...DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPS A CATEGORY

ACROSS OUR REGION. LOOKS FOR HIGHS FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH AND

WEST TO UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST.

THE COASTAL STORM AS OF 1000 AM...WAS SITTING ABOUT 50 MILES SE OF

CAPE HATTERAS MOVING NORTHEAST. THE STORM IS ALREADY TIED INTO THE

VORTICITY TRAIL TRAILING NORTHWEST FROM IT...ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE

STRONG VORTICITY MAX BACK TO NEAR SAINT LOUIS. IT WILL BEGIN TO

SLOWLY DEEPEN AND TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY.

FYI...THE 12Z NAM CAME IN TRACKING THE STORM SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE

OLDER RUNS...BUT ONLY ABOUT 25 MILES. HOWEVER...THE QPF IS STILL

ROBUST...HIGHER THAN WHAT OUR CURRENT FORECAST. WE WILL AWAIT TO SEE

WHAT THE 12Z GFS HAS TO OFFER...IT HAS PERSISTENTLY OFFERED LESS

QPF. THE 12Z ECMWF NOW SUPPORT THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF THE NAM

(COMPARED TO YESTERDAY). NO CHANGES IN HEADLINES JUST YET.

STAY TUNED.

Finally a snowfall map out of NWS Albany

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/WSW.htm

Great stuff! Thanks all.

Check out the 12Z NAM ---

We get crushed!

great shot!!!

Hanging out here at Beekman country club, off the highland 5th hole 600', watching things disappear!

Great storm!

DONE! From NYC Office

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --

SOME IMPORTANT CHANGES FORTHCOMING WITH THIS UPDATE. BASED ON

EARLIER THINKING...AND WITH 12Z GFS/NAM BOTH IN CLOSE PROXIMITY

ON LOW TRACK AND QPF...HAVE BUMPED UP SNOW TOTALS AND ALSO

EXPANDED BLIZZARD WARNINGS TO THE ENTIRE CWA. INTENSE MESOSCALE

BANDING EXPECTED TO PIVOT INTO NYC METRO AND WESTERN/CENTRAL LONG

ISLAND LATER TODAY/TONIGHT SHOULD DELIVER STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF

15-20 INCHES...LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 2 FEET. OTHER AREAS IN THE CWA

SHOULD SEE 12-18 INCHES. WIND WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON WHAT

WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE BEEN EXCELLENT SNOW RATIOS OF 15-1 OR 20-1

GIVEN INTENSE LIFT AT IDEAL SNOW GROWTH TEMPERATURES ALOFT... WITH

ROEBBER NEURAL NET ALGORITHM SUGGESTING GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF

RATIOS UNDER 10-1...SO USED CLIMATOLOGICAL 11-1 RATIO INSTEAD AND

SCALED DOWN WHERE TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. NAM/GFS ALSO IN

CLOSER AGREEMENT ON MIXING BEING LIMITED TO THE SOUTH FORK OF

EASTERN LONG ISLAND...SO WILL HAVE LOWER AMOUNTS MAINLY 6-12

INCHES THERE.

Blizzard Warning POU!!!