meatwad

SPC AC 221807 Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR MISSING THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes will be possible over a part of the central and southern Plains Thursday. Other severe storms with a threat for mainly damaging wind and large hail are expected from a portion of the Ohio Valley into the northern Middle Atlantic. ...Upper OH Valley/Northern Middle Atlantic... Central US short-wave trough is forecast to eject northeast across the Great Lakes and flatten the eastern ridge as 80kt 500mb speed max translates across Lake Erie. This feature is expected to aid early-morning convection across the OH Valley which will propagate into eastern OH/western PA by 18z. Depending on the evolution of this convection it appears environmental shear will become favorable for sustaining fast-moving organized updrafts. Latest model guidance suggests upward-evolving thunderstorms by early afternoon within strengthening westerly flow regime. Boundary-layer heating is expected to be maximized from south-central PA, south along the lee of the central Appalachians. If a cold pool develops early, severe thunderstorms should initiate along the eastern-southern-southwestern flank of this activity then spread/develop east-southeast toward the Delmarva. Several CAMs solutions support this scenario and will extend higher severe probs into northern MD to account for the more southeast propagational component. Damaging winds, and some hail, are expected with convection as it spreads across eastern OH/PA toward northern MD by late afternoon. ...Central/Southern Plains... Strong mid-level flow is forecast to round the base of western US trough over northern Mexico late day1 into early day2, then translate into the central High Plains by 24/00z. In response to this feature, LLJ should strengthen across the TX south Plains late Wednesday. This will allow for a substantial moisture surge to at least 102W longitude where higher terrain and heating along the western edge of this moist plume should contribute to robust convection. There is some concern that convection could develop early in the period along the nose of the LLJ. This activity is most likely across the northern TX Panhandle into western KS atop cooler boundary air mass that will sag south across the High Plains. This early-day convection will likely be elevated and pose primarily a large hail threat. However, strong surface heating near the NM/TX border will contribute to substantial buoyancy that will become uncapped by late afternoon. Forecast shear profiles strongly favor supercells and a fair number of storms should ultimately evolve across the ENH Risk. High-PW air mass should surge into this region such that long-lived supercells are expected. Very large hail and tornadoes can be expected with supercells south of the cold front that will orient itself across southwest-central KS. If early-day convection is less than currently expected, a corridor of higher severe probs may ultimately need to be considered across the High Plains south of the front. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 10% - Enhanced Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced ..Darrow.. 05/22/2019 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1930Z (3:30PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

I kinda wish Southwest Pa was 7000-9000 feet above sea level, then we would never have to worry about slop

High humidity in December is lame.

I would love a repete of The 1994 storm was awesome, I got about 30". I would love a repete of this storm and the Superstorm of 1993 as well.

Where is Elsa when you need her?

This person's video is bleak Don't Know if it's posted yet.

this guy should not be fiming through the windows http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9M_mcOL99qA