snowlover91
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Everything posted by snowlover91
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Yes but also drier than it’s previous run in N GA and Western NC too.
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I’d say the GFS and Euro have done pretty well with this so far. They stuck with their guns and haven’t showed the amped UK or CMC solutions... it remains to be seen how it verifies but the GFS and Euro blend seems like a good way to go.
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This is what happened.
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Horrible run of the NAM. A disaster for just about everyone. Old run on the bottom, new run on top.
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My bad, yes here’s the same timeframe from 12z run. A little less precip and more positively tilted. Not a huge difference but definitely there.
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18z CMC looks a little less amped, colder 850s and faster. Less precip inland and a little more suppressed. First image is 18z, second is 12z.
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There is one just to the south and east of Atlanta but it looks okay there for now.
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Yep and that's a much more realistic depiction of what the NAM is seeing and lines up with soundings far better. I'm just guessing here but I think Tidbits will see stuff as "snow" on the NAM maps if the surface temp is 33-35, that seems to be a common problem with the map and it did the same with the January storm earlier this year. I like the Kuchera better since it seems to show what would be snow based on soundings and a full atmosphere profile.
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I wouldn't use that map, I'm not sure what it uses to determine what is "snow" but soundings indicate rain for a large portion of those areas. The Kuchera ratio will give you a much better idea of where areas might see snow.
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For those doubting the warm nose being shown... if you are near the 700mb 0C or higher line in NC, per soundings, there is a significant warm nose at the 700-800mb level that would give a nice cold 33F and rain. The warm air being pushed in is a real deal, even with a less amped solution Raleigh and surrounding areas would likely be a cold rain for the bulk of the heavy precip.
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That's a very reasonable forecast too. A lot of people are going to end up surprised when the warm nose makes its way well inland past Raleigh and sits there. The amped solution is not good for most and favors the mountains into extreme western/nw NC. The 3km NAM shows the warm nose very well too. Models usually underestimate the warm nose too with the NAM closest to what occurs.
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Here you go
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I have my eyes on the December 12th storm... It might be a better overall snow event for most of NC if we can get it to amplify fast enough. It's pretty close right now on the GFS. This storm looks like a classic I-85 special. That warm nose is really starting to show up on the CMC and is making it well inland...
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Yep GFS is garbage since the upgrade, it just doesn't do well with much of anything. Did terrible with hurricane intensity/development this summer/fall and did horrible in the January snow this year. I wouldn't put much stock in it right now, CMC, UK and Euro are much more important IMO.
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Not lately it hasn't. The blizzard in the NE earlier this year it was one of the colder models and busted horribly... the January storm last year it was also one of the colder models until within about 18 hours out and it busted pretty badly then too. Warm noses often come in stronger and warmer than modeled and the RGEM doesn't do very well with them at this range, within 24 hours it is very good but this far out it struggles.
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I wouldn't put too much stock in the RGEM surface temps. It has a known cold bias and in events like this the NAM usually does the best in the short range.
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GFS is very warm at the surface, 38-42 which is why the output is showing mostly rain. Soundings support snow from Raleigh and points west IF the boundary layer cools like the NAM/Euro/CMC indicate.
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NAM is coming in a bit lower with the dewpoints across NC...
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It was definitely the NAM, the GFS was one of the colder solutions from what I recall. When the NAM is colder than the GFS it always gets my interest... surface temps will be marginal 32-34 but cold enough IMO. The key is where the 750-850mb warm nose sets up. Right now the NAM sets that up along the I-95 corridor or just to the west of it favoring RDU to CLT and points west. That seems quite reasonable given climo as well.
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There was on the NAM but people discounted it because it was the NAM. Typically around here the model with the most aggressive warm nose oftentimes ends up being close to reality, though not always. The NAM has a similar temp profile to the Euro with the warm nose getting as far inland as Rocky Mount to RDU. This seems to be the consensus for now but will change as models figure out the dynamics and timing of everything. The warm nose modeled on the Euro and NAM seems to be in the 750-850mb layer.
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It's really the GFS vs every other model on temps. GFS is insistent on upper 30s to low 40s across NC while the CMC, NAM, and Euro all drop temps in the 32-35F range for most of the event. That's the biggest reason the GFS shows mostly a cold rain, the 850 level and soundings are cold enough for areas like Raleigh but the boundary layer is a bit warm.
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Their page doesn't auto-update, you have to refresh it every so often to get the latest. I'm out to 81. There is a warm nose that comes in hard and fast hours 81-84 at the 750-800mb level.
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I use this site for soundings. They are a little slow to update but the soundings are solid. Just click on the map for the sounding and then adjust the position of it, it even gives a text output option which is very useful. Sounding Link
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Soundings are your best friend Nam is great for sniffing out warm noses but can be overamped at extended ranges of 60+ hours so I wouldn't put too much stock in this solution for now... but it is useful for seeing where a warm nose might set up.
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Quite the opposite. This run of the NAM is amped up considerably and has tons of QPF but also a warm nose that sneaks in hours 78-84 all the way to RDU.
