EVLINC64

https://www.weatherbell.com/ watch the Saturday Summary

No he isn't ! he looks deeply into things instead & being in love with a Model until it changes them out of the sweet spot & then they jump to one that does have them in the sweet spot

I think he is saying anything is possible in Phase 3

The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 1h We are about to go into the wildest phase of the MJO you can have in Feb, phase 3. The Feb 5-13 1994 example of what phase 3 can do ( followed by the heat wave right after in 4/5/6) was the greatest case study this year NYC had 2 snowstorms with a total of 22 inches on the ground by the 12th, then was 62 8 days later! This year's target dates in comparison probably 20-28. That not to say 22 inches in NYC. Just to say a lot of wild weather west east centered in the lakes and northeast likely during that phase 3 time

Judah Cohen @judah47 · 1h #Winter is down but not out. #Cold temperatures across Northern Hemisphere are currently in full retreat but will expand rapidly in a week's time across Eurasia as high-latitude/Greenland blocking returns & also across North America with return of wave reflection, including NE US

The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 9m wpo goes negative and look what happens 5-15 days after. Neither cold shot was seen a week to 2 weeks out ( hence record rises in NG). Be careful after the 20th

The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 1h Only I and the Canadian are left with any storm threat in the NE Feb 15-16. But until I can see what this looks like when it reaches the w coast, and I am sure the northern branch does not feed a piece in, no change in ideas This way I am wrong once. If they models come back alot of people are wrong multiple times, since they parrot the models if they are using models. But people that have been saying nothing is coming for a while certainly own the field now. Touche

The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 36m I have not changed ideas on next weeks storm. Nor have I changed ideas on how the met community is being sold a bill of goods on AI's The is the latest Google graphcast at 500 mb. After 5 straight runs showing a major trough in the east, its got a wimp going thru the south, Is it right? Well it could be. I dont believe it.But how the heck is a model supposedly so good and less than a week out, it has that kind of change on a run. What has happened hemispherically to cause that?

The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 19h This tweet from Feb 4. Here we are Feb 8 and the AI almighty ( Google Graphcast) has a similar map forecasted as the human researched 4 storm analog did 4 days ago. So model is coming to me, which means nothing unless it happens. The analog method has risk Pick the wrong ones and you are wrong. But if you dissect the pattern right , this will be an example of a 10-12 day call. It's fun because you change the forecast only once, right before the storm, and then you bring in models to hone in on the details. I wonder what the old-timers who taught me, the analog members, would do today with this new-order AI stuff. They were way ahead of their time. I was fortunate enough to be around to learn from them and to have their work ethic

Might want to shitcan the GooFoS

The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 43m I am telling you folks. If you go and look at the AIS that are available, you will find that while the Euro AI ensemble is a bit better, most of them are just like all the rest I just think this whole hype and fascination with a new toy is leading the field even deeper into Show more

The American Storm @BigJoeBastardi · 42m Models are all over the place on late next week, something I have issued a big storm watch for the NE on Weatherbell based on studying pattern analogs and concluding a blend of 3/29/84,12/10/92,02/09/69 and 02/13/ work best. So the surface map for that gave me this for day 11, New euro went to it. So, like the storm a couple of weeks ago, where using 3 analogs gave a great solution a week out ( not perfect, but dang close), I started looking at this 5 days ago. The question then becomes, DO I HAVE THE RIGHT ANALOGS? But that means I am in charge of the idea, not the models ping ponging me. So you put out the idea and then wait and see if modeling comes to it. But it's not based on the models, it's based on pattern recognition and then doing the work to go back through all those maps and try to get the right package. This is how they did it in the old days, when 4 runs a day of computer models did not force a ping pong match among meteorologists. SO I RELY ON MY SKILL, NOT THE MODEL IN SETTING THIS UP! If you just look at models until a few days before you can get whip sawed, or you simply get on TV and say the models says this or that, and all you are is instead of a forecaster is a model spokesperson. The risk? That you do all this work and are wrong, and it's happened to me many times. But I would rather work and risk than outsource what God gave me. And besides, Bocelli is right in Un Nuovo Giorno: Solo rischiando tu vivrai. Only by risking do you live

Geee Whiz Nuh Uh

BAM Weather @bam_weather · 32m We are monitoring a strong clipper system to push through the eastern Ohio Valley to end the week. We will need to watch for eastward trends with this one, however accumulating snow looks likely!

https://www.weatherbell.com/ CV

was -17 as a Teenager & I was out all day playing street hockey

-14 Rostraver West Newton Station

-7.4 Here but my sensor is on porch & protected

US National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA denosrpSotg4g41424617um1ui168am2m0f3h9h352700216lgl0m25ffa69 · We were asked about having sunshine in January. Lake ice coverage on Lake Erie is a big factor for this, as higher ice coverage shuts off a main moisture source when we have northwest flow. Lake Erie ice coverage was 2% on January 14th. It's hovered around 95% since January 27th. Rapid ice growth!

2 weeks out or so, don't want the Bullseye on us

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 28m You might be done with the "Polar Vortex" but it is not done with you. Following weekend: Still watching potential for the "Final Boss" of blizzards to appear off the Northeast coast attached to a "Big Lobe" along with coldest air of winter.

Parts of Monesson are pretty elevated

Joe Bastardi is saying the winter isn't going anywhere

Snowing Harder here again