winter_warlock

Latest disco from sterling!!!! Good read.... As we move into the weekend, attention will turn to a storm system approaching from the south and west. By Friday night, this system will be located over the southern Plains. The initially closed upper low is modeled to transition into more of an open wave and potentially take on a negative tilt as it tracks east-northeastward toward our area. With the system taking on a negative tilt, there could be a corresponding strong area of low pressure at the surface, with access to ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. As one would expect seven days out, there is still considerable spread with respect to the track of this system, but most solutions cluster somewhere between a track into the eastern Ohio Valley and along the coast just off to our south and east. Probabilities for substantial QPF continue to increase. If the storm were to take a favorable track off to our south and east, some or all of this could occur as snow across portions of the area. Synoptically speaking, most solutions don`t have a strong area of high pressure off to the northeast, which could work against a snow solution, but the airmass in place ahead of the system is fairly cold/dry, which could create a decent amount of cold air in-situ once precipitated into. We`ll continue to monitor this system over the upcoming week, as it has the potential to be the first substantial winter storm of the season (and really last two seasons) to the east of the mountains

Latest update from WPC. I like where they have the low!

986!! Hmm looking like a cutter to me......

Now that looks much better than the gfs OP!! Will prevent cliff jumping lol

Ahhh. Ok ty bro! Ill take modeling this far out with a grain of salt!

Nicee then lock it in !! Lol

Oh. Ok nice

Well gfs was nw... cmc Was a lil bit south east of gfs .....And ukmet was south and colder.... cant wait to see what the 12z euro has !! Lol

Hmm how accurate is the ukmet compared to gfs a week out ?? Lol

Well im in baltimore county MD so... With these storms its always a wait and see thing till its right on top of us lol

One saving grace is its 7 days out! So alot can and will change in next 168 hours! Lol. Im mean come on folks do any if us really wanna be in the bulls eye 7 days out?? Lol

Not good for mid Atlantic

Latest WPC places the low almost perfect for mid Atlantic and i like the triple highs to the north!

Yup and every one of those was big for me too!!

The 06z gfs control was too far inland for my taste im glad to see the ensembles farther east

Sterling has now started to mention the storm for the 7th They are in a wait and see mode lol ...... From sterling..... low pressure system in which the track of the low could be to our south and intensify as it approaches the mid-Atlantic Coast. The consensus low pressure system track has the low moving from central North Carolina, across the Tidewater of southeastern Virginia and just offshore of the Delmarva. It is too early to tell how much rainfall, how much snowfall, locations of these types of weather, and the timing of impact. We will need to monitor next weekend`s low pressure system over the early part of this week.

I can see myself haveing alot of sleepless nights waiting for the late model runs this coming week

Nice to see some aggreement in models 7 days out

WPC seems to agree with latest modeling on their day 7 prog..

Very nice!!!!

ill take that!!!

Looks great!! Need it to be just a lil more east! But ill take it considering its still 7 days out!

7 days out or not, that is a thing of beauty!!

Amen brother !! It had been a long time!!

Ahhh. I love me some bourbon!!!