LWX talks about upcoming storm...
They are kinda taking it seriously
By the end of the week and especially heading into the weekend,
the upper-level pattern becomes quite active in both the
northern and southern branches of the jet stream. Model guidance
is still very much all over the place in regards to exactly
what comes of this, but there is growing consensus for an area
of low pressure developing across the south-central/southeastern
CONUS. Depending on when and where that area of low pressure
develops, as well as where it goes after it does develop, there
could be significant wintry precipitation across our area
sometime next weekend. Uncertainty remains with this system, as
there is some potential that strong Arctic high pressure could
suppress the system south. However, that high (~1040 mb Arctic
high) is also a source of very cold air; this likely remains in
place due to a favorable -AO/-NAO blocking pattern. Meanwhile,
there are an increasing amount of ensemble members that bring
significant wintry precipitation to the region due to an
amplified southern stream influence - something we have seen
very little of so far this winter (typical of La Nina). The low
may not escape as easily out to sea given the -NAO block. The
nearby steady source of very cold air and the amplified southern
stream occurring in tandem are what raise some red flags for
significant wintry precipitation potential this weekend.
The latest ensemble guidance is certainly on the upward trend
in that regard, but that doesn`t mean it can`t swing back in the
other direction. It will be key to monitor this threat closely
in the coming days as the different parts of the system become
better sampled by surface and upper air obs. Current model
spread indicates an axis of significant snow/ice could be as
far north as Upstate New York, or as far south as the Carolinas
