Toronto4

Measured just over 5” (13 cm) in downtown Toronto. It took slightly longer for the downtown core to fully switch to snow (just after 6pm last night).

11 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Yup, huge bust for Toronto. I'd be surprised if we get to 4", to be honest. Maybe 2"?

Looking like a 2-4” event for the GTA at most as per latest model trends. Rain is scheduled to change to snow sometime around 6-7 pm.

Besides the January 17, 2022 storm, the Nov 28, 2021 snowfall is the next best event of this winter. 4-5” of picturesque snow and temperatures remained at or just below freezing with minimal impact on roads.

25 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Environment Canada has cancelled the weather advisories for Toronto. Its rare for them to do it before the event has really started but shows how little impact they expect this storm to have. 

Original winter weather advisory was for 4-8" but now the forecast mentions more rain and max 2-4" for the event. 

Environment Canada just reissued the Weather Advisory at 11:43 am for Toronto. Latest forecast is 2” of snow today, 2-4” tonight and another 1” tomorrow.

26 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Sticking with my 4" call for Toronto. At the moment, though, this is looking like a dud for us. Rain to snow scenarios rarely work out for us.

I’m going for 4-6” for the first wave late this afternoon into the overnight hours. Highest snowfall rates will occur just after the changeover from rain to snow.

The second wave late Thursday afternoon into the evening is still a big question mark. From a total miss to another 4”. Hopefully models will provide more clarity later today.

Environment Canada just issued a Special Weather Statement for the GTA and a Winter Storm Watch for areas southwest of Toronto. Preliminary forecast amounts by EC for Toronto by Friday morning is 4-8” and 8-12” for SW Ontario/Niagara.

14 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I think that 13.5" may be the 2nd biggest storm at Pearson?   I'd have to check but I'm pretty sure...maybe 3.  But, obviously, in reality, we've seen a lot of bigger storms than that since 1937.

The nice thing is now with social media, everyone is out there with their rulers and posting totals.  The official obs matter much less than they used to imho.

I believe the biggest snowfall ever recorded at Pearson was 39.9 cm/16” back on Feb 25, 1965. 
 

And Environment Canada is relying more and more on volunteer observations these days to help fill the gap with the elimination of manual official weather observation stations in the last few years, such as Buttonville Airport in Markham, ON. Buttonville is currently an automated station, like downtown TO.

4 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Well that was the peak right there.  Nothing left to live for.  All downhill from here.  That was 3-4"/hr rates around 8am yesterday.  Never experienced snow up to my knees.  Eyeballing 16-18" range but it's so hard to tell with all the blowing snow.

And a Blizzard Warning!!  Never did I think I'd see the day.

I used to sh*t all over YYZ but reading twitter it's clicking how hard airport snowfall obs must be when there's tons of wind.

The automated station in downtown Toronto recorded 12 cm/5” of snow in one hour from 6 to 7 am and 24 cm/9” in 3 hours from 5 to 8 am. I was up around 6:30 am and saw how hard and fast the snow was coming down.

YYZ recorded a storm total of 13.5”/34.4 cm. Though on the lower end compared to the rest of Toronto, it is not as bad as Feb 8, 2013 or Jan 2/3, 1999 where the measurements at Pearson were questionable and out of line with the rest of the GTA.

13 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Similar to this storm, then, in how YYZ reported bogus numbers. I seem to recall a bunch of us venting about it on this board, at the time.

Storm total at YYZ was 13.5” (34.4 cm)

5.2 cm/2.0” late in the evening on Jan 16

29.2 cm/11.5” for Jan 17

The automated station in downtown Toronto recorded a maximum snow depth of 36 cm/14.2”.

2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Oh okay thank you for clarifying. Is there a reason why manual measurements stopped? Budget constraints? Would've been cool if they continued especially for a storm like today. 

Budget constraints at Environment Canada. A number of other stations have stopped manual readings over the last few years, including the Environment Canada headquarters at Dufferin St. and Steeles Ave. in North York (north Toronto). Nav Canada operates the first order stations (eg YYZ/Pearson Airport) and EC relies on the volunteer observation network for measurements/readings.
 

16 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Which explains why EC issued a blizzard warning. A near perfect set up and purely synoptic. Another 6-8" is definitely possible. 

Did the Toronto station (the one that went back to the 1800s) stopped reporting? 

Manual snowfall measurements at the downtown TO station at the University of Toronto stopped after the 2016-17 winter season. The automated station at the same location is still there and it takes temperature, precipitation and snow depth readings. 

4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

That's crazy!  I just measured ~28.0cm (11.0"). 

It’s pouring snow here in downtown Toronto. I’d say at least 4-6” fell between 6-7 am. Looks like another 4-6” as the deformation zone pivots across the GTA.

7 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Puking snow right now. I haven't measured yet but >8" for sure. 

Meteorologist Anthony Farnell of Global TV in Toronto tweeted that he measured 15” (37 cm) in east Toronto 15 minutes ago (8 am).

11 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I recommend checking out the Upstate NY sub-forum - they are covering this storm in depth as it looks to impact western New York and Ontario more than the midwest.

Fingers crossed for favourable model trends for tonight’s model runs. Should be a fascinating storm to follow. Could be one of Toronto’s biggest storms in quite a while.

53 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Yes, the March 1993 was just that bot too far east for us. Ottawa saw 40 cm, and I think we saw about 5 cm?

I remember Environment Canada was forecasting 15-20 cm (6-8”) of snow for the Toronto area. I believe a blizzard warning was issued but we only got around 6 cm.

The upcoming storm is a massive head scratcher for Toronto forecasters. Anthony Farnell just tweeted that Toronto could see anywhere between 5 to 35 cm (2 to 14”). It’s going to be a nail biter and hopefully we’ll know better once the northern stream piece is sampled.

46 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

@blizzardof96 Latest RDPS is cooler than 06z for the GTA. However, 850's and sfc temperatures are quite marginal. I agree it will start as rain though but how quickly it transitions over is the real question. Those cold NNE winds can be underestimated by models sometimes so perhaps we could cool down rapidly. Might be a long light snow event after the initial thump moves through. 

Still not overly optimistic yet. But I'm thinking 4" away from the Lake and <5cm (2") near the Lake.

Latest 12z GDPS gives the entire GTA snowfall, with the heavier amounts in the northern sections (5-6”)  and less by Lake Ontario (3-4”).

1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Added a cm to my running total due to that missing data from early Dec.  I emailed EC and apparently that data is not recoverable

Apparently the Nov 30 and Dec 1 snowfall data was missing for a few days until it was recovered the following week. 

10 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

What a dog's breakfast of a storm here.  Even King Euro mishandled the placement of the defo band snows. 

Won't know for sure until the final number's out, but with today's coating YYZ up to around 30" on the season.  2020-21 could very well be like last year: end up with 55" but damned if you can remember how.

Final number at YYZ: 3.6” (9.2 cm)

Season to date: 30.6” (77.8 cm)

As a follow up to my previous post, looks like some shallow lake effect snow affecting areas along the Toronto lakeshore, including the downtown core. Snow is coming down at a steady clip.

29 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I agree. After going nearly 4 weeks without any measurable snow, 3" feels like a lot. 

YYZ up to 7 cm (3”) as of 2 pm.

Snow starting to pick up in intensity here in downtown Toronto, albeit not as heavy as a few hours ago. Latest HRRR suggests we’ll somehow pick up an additional 2-3” of snow. 

13 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

There's nothing I see that would suggest your average cold La Nina December this year. Both the GEFS/EPS are adamant on developing and maintaining the PV around Alaska to begin December. On top of that stratospheric temperatures are near record lows which is not good if you're hoping for a -AO/NAO.  One thing that is perplexing is the El Nino flavor to the upcoming pattern. Models have a somewhat active STJ and if we can keep getting some transient cold shots, i.e. Dec 2007, we can cash in. I don't think December will be as warm as Dec 2011, but a blend of Dec 2016, 2007 and 1988 sounds more realistic. Overall, I’m not impressed with the upcoming pattern. The cold air is locked up in the Arctic and Alaska while most of Canada bathes in warmth.

Over the last 10-15 years, our winter months have been shrinking. Most of our snow/cold has been occurring over a 3-6-week time frame. Last 4 winters are prime examples. 

Dec 2016 was pretty decent snow-wise for our area, especially in the middle part. 
Dec 1988 was dry and had several brief cold shots. 
Dec 2007 was fantastic until Christmas.

Looks like the progression of this winter season is following 1975-76 and 2008-09. Both had mild starts to November, especially 1975. Both seasons had a cold/snowy stretch from mid-December to the end of January. And February for both years was mild with a lack of snow.

Toronto (YYZ) reached 96 yesterday.

28 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

What a time.

I suspect YYZ will come in ~1.5cm for today. I doubt we'll beat May 1976. I remember at the end of April, I was a bit frustrated we couldn't crack 140cm (55.1"), as we fell short by a mere 0.8cm at YYZ. As of yesterday, we were only 0.4cm away and after today we'll likely cross 140cm. YYZ will end up recording more snow in May than April.   Don't think that's ever happened even going back to 1840. 

2020 is on a serious roll. I wouldn't be shocked to see snow in June, or even worse, as early as September.  

There were flakes flying in the air this morning in the downtown core, though no accumulation.

1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

-4.7c (23.5F) is a record cold temp for May 9 at YYZ, and is actually the 2nd coldest May temperature on record period.

Just had a snowshower that dropped visibility below 1/2 mile.  Always like to explore the limits of my love for snow.  Seeing it on May 9, I can say that limit has been breached.

There has been on and off intense snow showers in downtown Toronto in the last few hours. One minute it’s sunny and the next minute there’s an intense squall.

It looks like the downtown Toronto station at the U of T set a record low for May 9th. The old record is -1.7C (28.9F) set way back in 1850. The 6am temp was -1.8C (28.8F).

And if the RDPS/HRDPS/GFS is correct, we could be seeing more snow on Monday morning  on the backside of a clipper low. That low will drag more cold air and another night of below freezing weather is likely Tuesday morning.

18 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Not feeling optimistic about it now. Conditions aren’t favourable enough for sustained lake effect across the area. Perhaps an inch in some localized areas but that’s about it. Wind direction is more westerly than NW which also plays a role.

Around 5” fell in downtown Toronto.  
 

Looks like the lake effect band moves into Toronto tomorrow during the afternoon rush.

17 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Nope, just wind and visibility.

The December 10-11, 1992 storm was pure wet, heavy snow with temperatures staying around freezing for the entire event.