Joe4alb

lets not forget what Katrina looked like before all those famous "eye" shots. With RI it won't take much for this to have the "look" everyone has been waiting for. 

Time for some radar tracking... Here comes the center

tighter rotation showing up in latest images. 

Hamptons on Long Island beautiful sky. Lots of low lvl clouds screaming northward

Maybe??

gfs oh so slightly S and 1mb weaker 

Just now, MJO812 said:

We have seen blizzards with a lower pressure  than what the storm is predicted to be up here. 

Yeah but how much foliage is on your trees during a blizzard? Lot weaker winds can take down a whole lot more trees in this scenario. 

Henri is a hurricane as of 11am

..HENRI IS NOW A HURRICANE...
...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING
RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 72.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

GFS coming in slightly S and stronger than 12z

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that's been doing that all day ...  That region immediately/adjacent and west of your circled annotation is probably dim sun over 15' seas.

agreed but it was much more disjointed earlier in the day. Almost to the point you could clearly make out the LLC to the NW of the main convection. 

Looking at the lastest vis sat loop. Stronger convection appears to be moving much closer to the LLC. 

Everyones phones blowing up with the Emergency Broadcast msg for Hurricane warnings now in effect for the Southern areas. 

Henri Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 20
National Weather Service New York NY  AL082021
501 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

NYZ081-210515-
/O.NEW.KOKX.SS.W.1008.210820T2101Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.HU.W.1008.210820T2101Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.SS.A.1008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KOKX.HU.A.1008.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Southeast Suffolk-
501 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning means hurricane-force winds are expected
somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Mastic Beach
    - Hampton Bays
    - Montauk Point

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Strong Tropical Storm force
      wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 50-65 mph with gusts to 80 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Saturday evening
          until early Monday morning

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 74
      to 110 mph
        - The wind threat has increased from the previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for life-threatening wind of equivalent CAT 1 or
          2 hurricane force.
        - PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
          should be urgently completed. Prepare for considerable wind
          damage.
        - ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some
          having window, door, and garage door failures leading to
          structural damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some
          destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles.
          Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks.
        - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
          roadway signs blown over.
        - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
          urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways,
          and access routes impassable.
        - Large areas with power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
        - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 2-4 feet
          above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
        - Window of concern: early Sunday morning until Sunday evening

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for storm
      surge flooding greater than 3 feet above ground
        - The storm surge threat has increased from the previous
          assessment.
        - PLAN: Plan for life-threatening storm surge flooding of
          greater than 3 feet above ground.
        - PREPARE: Evacuation efforts and flood preparations should
          soon be brought to completion before conditions become
          unsafe.
        - ACT: Leave immediately if evacuation orders are given for
          your area to avoid being cut off from emergency services or
          needlessly risk lives.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated
          by waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the
          coast.
        - Sections of near shore escape routes and secondary roads
          become weakened or washed out, especially in usually
          vulnerable low spots. Flood control systems and barriers
          may become stressed.
        - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Very
          dangerous surf and rip currents.
        - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
          Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially
          in unprotected anchorages.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 3-6 inches, with locally
          higher amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
      flooding rain
        - The flooding rain threat has increased from the previous
          assessment.
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
          likely.
        - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
          if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
          rescues.
        - Rivers and streams may rapidly overflow their banks in
          multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
          may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and
          barriers may become stressed.
        - In hilly terrain, destructive runoff may run quickly down
          valleys, and increase susceptibility to rockslides and
          mudslides.
        - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
          communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
          washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
          escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
          moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
          become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
          weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Tornadoes not expected
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
          with gusty winds may still occur.
        - PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
          against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
          tornado situation.
        - ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
        - Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
    - http://scoem.suffolkcountyny.gov
    - https://weather.gov/nyc
    - https://ready.gov/hurricanes

2pm 

994mb

NNW 6mph

70MPH winds

look at her blossom.. 

IR Loop - Tropical Storm HENRI (tropicaltidbits.com)

very impressive on the ir loop over the last few hrs. 

18z GFS coming in colder also. 

ouch

18z goofus

Any reports from SE Mass? Radar looks sick!

Absolutely puking snow right now in Sag Harbor. All out accumulation is gonna come in the next hr or 2

Coastal NJ in on  the warnings now too.

Quote

The only notable changes were to expand the Winter Storm Warning
into coastal Monmouth County and inland Ocean County given forecast
totals sufficient to warrant a warning. The Winter Weather Advisory
was also expanded into coastal Ocean County for similar reasoning.
Some of the latest high-res guidance tries to hold onto the light
snow for a couple extra hours along and north of I-195, so totals
seem more probable to exceed the thresholds for the new areas in the
Warning/Advisory. It should be noted that there is the potential for
higher snowfall amounts within the band (where rates may approach 2
inches an hour), but would like to really get in the CAMs temporal
wheelhouse (e.g. <24 hours) before increasing amounts further.

That forecast is actually from much earlier this morning. They did not change the verbiage for the 1:33pm update. That is still based off the 0Z model data

GFS looking better at H5 through 30hr. bit more digging. 

Just now, kenrad said:

Per LSRs, did you get around 3" in the last 1.5 hours?

EASY! i picked up over 5" in a little over an hr