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Everything posted by TalcottWx
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I've been learning option trading this year. It's amazingly similar in some ways. When you buy try and evaluate a stock it feels like you are forecasting for a snowstorm to hit every Friday (weekly option expiration). The stock direction is similar to snowfall amounts. Your job to look at technical analysis and sentiment/sort of like picking apart model bias. Predict what is coming based off experience. That's where the similarities end. Pro: you get a new chance to jackpot every week in markets con: there is real money on the line not snowfall. Doesn't destroy your family when you lose big. Model windshield wipers = bear/bull traps if you are not careful.
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Is there anything that can be derived by looking at some of the more obscure details of modeling? Like for instance the sref is a bomb and the arw is nothing. I know some of our Mets know the way models operate on a mechanical level. Maybe there is a known bias here. And it can give us a key to understanding how to play this.