TalcottWx

The highest tilt, number four, shows that band coming in as an absolute monster.

You can see this bent back band now that hasn't quite made it to your doorstep. Once we see some of this stuff rotate toward E SNE, I feel like it should orientate very well for you.

UPDATED TOTALS 15.5” Forked River, NJ 14” Sea Isle City, NJ 12.5” Egg Harbor Township, NJ 10.3” Islip Airport, NY 5.3” LaGuardia

I consider the higher tilts to be the polar opposite of looking at tdwr for OES.

Here is tilt 3. It's a bit higher. But look at that band plowing NW. Forward speed has not decreased. It even has an unstable look to it.

Free tip for weenies. Upper level tilt is sort of like the nasdaq and S&P 500 futures. It is a prediction of where bands are setting up because the beam is higher aloft. Will sometimes give you a much better idea of where the most intense banding is setting up.

I feel like that is a good range.

All eyes to the Cape if you are rooting for epic snowfall totals. Watch these bands swing NW and expect them to orientate themselves north to south as the day develops.

He's doing great! As good as ever. Except he forgot my name at the last g2g, he is on probation.

You can see the beginning stages of a band from @Ginx snewx to @ORH_wxman to @40/70 Benchmark

Not sure I am so bullish for the direct NYC area looking at this.

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1487405733650083840?s=20&t=iyiBQY8nzuSQrVKRNRKuuw

Here is the composite. I think it gives you a much clearer idea than looking at tilt 1.

Who knows with the way this storm has gone, maybe we will.

100% of Provincetown now without power

This is the tilt 2. So the beam is a bit higher. You can see this band rocketing NW from the Cape as the most dominant right now.

Looking an mesoanalysis- appears that actually surface is a little further west compared to what RAP had.

We are going to get destroyed. This is game on.

KBOS 291154Z 01024G30KT 1/2SM R04R/4500VP6000FT SN FZFG VV010 M06/M07 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 01031/1112 TWR VIS 3/4

I think models blew this yesterday. Loo Untitled (1).webm

5 AM update... *** Powerful multi facet winter storm w/near record snow, blizzard conditions, near hurricane force wind gusts & coastal flooding *** Highlights... * Near record snowfall with a widespread 1 to 2 ft snowfall in eastern MA & RI, along with blizzard conditions. Localized amounts up to 3 ft possible in this region * Snowfall rates could reach 2 to 4 inches per hour at times with possibility of thundersnow across eastern MA and RI. This will make travel very dangerous to nearly impossible * Near hurricane force wind gusts are possible along the eastern MA coast, possibly resulting in power outages Overview... Explosive cyclogenesis underway with surface low down to about 989 mb at 09z east of the DE coast. Mid/upper level trough amplification evident on satellite, with negative tilt and cooling cloud tops, along with a classic baroclinic leaf signature. This will support rapid deepening today and into this evening, with 00z guidance indicating a sub 970 mb low just off the eastern MA coast at 00z Sunday! This will be about a 35 mb pressure drop in 24 hrs, from 00z Sat to 00z Sun! Hence, meeting and surpassing bomb cyclone criteria. Details... Near record snowfall/extreme snowfall rates... 00z models have trended slightly farther west with qpf and slightly heavier as well. Given storm intensity and rapid amplification along with mid level low track over or just east of the eastern MA coast, this trend seems reasonable. Very strong jet dynamics which includes a dual upper level jet streak, combined with a moist/cold NE conveyor belt up to 80 kt off the Atlantic into SNE, will provide a firehose of abundant moisture, supporting a period of very heavy snowfall from approximately 9 am to 4 pm. In addition, as dry slot approaches eastern MA and RI this afternoon, model soundings indicate a potential moist absolute unstable layer (MAUL) in this area. This seems reasonable as approaching dry slot will help steepen mid level lapse rates. All of the attributes listed above support intense snowfall rates of 2-4" per hour at times, along with thundersnow. Also, model/BUFKIT time sections indicate the bulk of the lift is occurring in the snow growth region later this morning and afternoon. This will yield SLR of 15-20 to 1. Therefore, an upward trend in qpf, a shift slightly farther west and heavy snow bands with high SLR, have resulted in slightly higher snow totals from previous forecast, and slightly shifted west. Heaviest snow (near record snow possible) will occur across RI into the Worcester Hills, with 18-24" likely. In eastern MA, 24-30" is likely. These higher totals in RI and the Worcester Hills will hinge on mesoscale banding pivoting westward from eastern MA into RI & the Worcester Hills. These snow totals will be record or near record in many locations. In addition, strong NE winds will result in snow drifts up to 4 ft and possibly higher. Considerable blow and drifting along with near zero vsby at times, will result in very dangerous to impossible travel conditions late this morning and afternoon. In addition, with temps falling through the teens and WCI at or below zero, this will be a very dangerous situation for anyone becoming stranded on the roads. Hence, don`t venture out if at all possible because it could become a life-threatening situation. Snow totals will decrease westward across CT (especially CT River Valley westward) and west of the Worcester Hills in MA. Our snow totals in northwest MA may have to be adjusted downward, as some concern very cold/dry air advecting into that region (KAQW dew pt currently 2F) may overwhelm the boundary layer, resulting in less snowfall. Something we will be monitoring. PTYPE and Snow Load... Well defined coastal front already established, with north wind at KBOS with a temp of 27F. Meanwhile, KGHG northeast wind and 34F. As strong pressure falls approach from the south, this coastal front will become more pronounced and begin to bleed southward. These pressure falls will also cause rain early this morning across the outer Cape and Nantucket, to flip over to snow between 7 am and 10 pm, as winds shift to the NNE and draws colder air southward. The concern here is that there could be many hours of wet snow here, increasing the weight of tree branches and limbs. This combined with NE winds gusting as high as 65-75 mph from about 9 am to 4 pm, will increase the risk of tree damage and power outages across Nantucket, Cape Cod and possibly coastal Plymouth county. This delay in changeover from rain to snow, will reduce snow totals to 12" to 18" across the outer Cape and Nantucket. Strong to Damaging winds... As mentioned above, anomalous low level NE jet combined with steep low level lapse rates, NNE winds 30-40 mph with gusts up to 65-75 across Cape Cod and the Islands, including Cape Ann, will increase the risk of tree damage and power outages. The greatest risk could be across Cape Cod, the islands and coastal Plymouth county, as heavy wet snow combines with these strong/damaging winds. In addition, these very strong winds combined with snowfall rates of 2- 4" per hour at times, will yield blizzard conditions across RI and eastern MA, with vsbys near zero at times. Even after the snow tapers off early this evening, there will continue to be considerable blowing and drifting snow.

Pounding here too Mike. Visibility way down.

BOOOM! Untitled.webm Untitled.webm

I already have blowing and drifting. This is going to be insane today. 2005 was not day time. It's a real treat that we will get to watch this with the sun up.