NittanyWx

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Not going to be much of a front end dump if the primary low tracks to Michigan. We need things to dig more and then a few other things to fall in place.

That's why I've been calling it an outside threat.  Not saying this is a great look overall.  Skinniest kid at fat camp kind of analogy.

38 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

To those always wondering why long range forecasters say above average snowfall year in and year out... what do you see on Twitter and click more? A headline that says below average snowfall expected in the Northeast or “Bitter Cold and Snowy Winter for the Northeast Expected”? This is why people have to look at the track record of the person calling for the brutal cold. To us winter sports enthusiasts, this is peak season! One massive storm doesn't make the season! It isn't even cold enough to make snow at night currently in Southern NY and southern New England. 

That's why you gotta pick and choose carefully who you follow.  Echo chamber is real.

I think the 8th/9th is the best chance we got here as far as snowfall through the next couple of weeks.  I don't hate the look in theory, front end thump with overrunning and a wedge cold with HP in Quebec.  But it will not stay as snow.  It's really a front end thump and changeover scenario to me if we can get something.  Still a week away though.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 12z GEFS finally caved to the milder EPS day 6-10. Notice how much the GEFS has been struggling with the fire hose Pacific Jet. You will know a pattern change is finally at hand when the day 6-10 stops correcting milder.

New run

Old run

Tried to explain this a couple of days ago.  It has really struggled with the tropics since we moved into this 4-5-6 phase space.  I've noticed this is when it is at some of its lowest skill. 

The AAM and Pacific remain the biggest barriers to cold.  You still got one off chances for a storm next week, but in terms of meaningfully turning the pattern on it's head, it's still a function (to me) of the AAM calming down and the MJO progressing.  And it is progressing slowly, unfortunately. 

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Did you see the mjo charts for the euro yesterday ?

Euro wanted the mjo to go back into 6. Now it travels into 7-8-cod. 

 

I rarely take an individual run of an individual model on it's own for verification.   Especially not in the RMM space.  The GEFS continues to weaken it's MJO signature, and has done poorly for weeks in handling the tropical aspect pattern, in large part rushing through phase spaces.  Big part of why it has been playing catch up to the warmer ideas the EC Ens has been projecting.  And to be clear, the EC Ens was too cool as well, but at least had the right idea taking this into the 4-5 space. 

Absent that, the ++AAM pattern makes getting this cold (and any durability) more than just an MJO function.   Hard to get too cold when you continually get this reinforcing +WPO.  To me, that's a major hurdle and why this timing is now pushed even further back.

As far as storms go, outside chance you can thread the needle next week, but that's an outside chance.

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

 

He rarely bets against the euro mjo progression but others are doing it also.

The Euro has been struggling with the mjo.

This is incorrect.  The GFS suite has had a rough time of late with the MJO, in large part why it was showing all of this cold for late December through early January.  That has continually been kicked back and weakened with time.  After over-amplifying the P7 look dramatically, it caved again this week.

People need to look beyond the RMM charts if they want to diagnose what the MJO is doing.

35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks.

In your opinion, do you think the flip to a colder pattern will still occur, or are you of the belief that this is the weather for the lionshare of winter?

I do think it will occur in time, but I've been rewarded every single time I've preached delay.  I don't see a reason to rush things, and with MJO support becoming a lot less clear now, we're once again in a less favorable look than we (the met community at large) thought.  This Indian Ocean convection is a major problem, and I don't believe most of us meteorologists are skilled enough to be able to discern what a westward propagating ERW does to the pattern better than these models.   I think my own comments mete that out.  

To me, the main thing I'm noting is this high AAM base state.  We need that to go away before we can start more seriously talking about sustainability in any notable cold.  I'm a bit surprised at how bad the Pacific looks right now.  That'll take some time to undo.

By the way, I was never of the opinion that the SSW guaranteed cold in December in January.  The basis for my view was and has been MJO.

Not a good look with this westward propagating ERW if you're hoping for cold anytime soon.  High AAM base state remains, which means we're settling more into a P5 forcing look for now.  I still like that post Jan 5-6 Jan period for a coastal, but if it's anything it's a thread the needle situation.  The tropic setup is just not correct for major cold air transport to accompany it.

Other than that, SSW remains a red herring for now.  Way, way too much chatter and "talking your book" went on with that feature which I've noted already.  Tropics and AAM running the show.

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

This GEFS MJO outlook is totally insane if it has a chance of verifying - the Euro outlook is more likely IMO:

I dont think either is right.  Euro has a tendency to get stuck in P6, probably why it's trying to kill off the event.  GEFS also just going batshit with convection and the RMM charts go haywire.  This is a situation where I dont think those charts are the best way to diagnose the pattern.

There was a hint of an ERW signature a couple of days ago, my guess that's what's causing RMM craziness.  

Just now, NEG NAO said:

on a more positive note - the SOI is dropping towards negative

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

MJO continues to drive the bus.  It looks progressive, generally think post Jan 5th looking better for us in the NE.  The SOI dip is (in my view) a function of convection finally starting to emerge over the maritime continent.

Think all the SSW talk is misplaced on weather twitter right now.  Story is the amplitude of this MJO.  Much better correlation to sensible weather at this time of year.  The MJO amp is arguing this gets interesting in January (esp. Second week) but being patient on the cold has been the correct play.

Something I can't shake though is the durability question.  SSW's in theory have lag time before you see increased and durable blocking when they couple with the tropo.  So what happens if we get to 8-1 and then still have a little bit of a lull to see non-Pac blocking show up?   That's as big of a question to me as the exact timing of the cool down.

16 hours ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

We have to wait and see what the SSW does. That is if there is one coming. There's a high chance anyway.

SSW's do not have a statistically significant correlation to sensible weather in the northeast.  It can get cold in Jan, certainly looks much better after the 5th/6th period and beyond.  But that may be as much a function of the MJO (if not moreso) than the SSW.

Think people forget what the SSW gets you (normally) is an increase in likelihood of -AO if there is a true coupling to the troposphere PV.  The -AO itself increases your odds of cold, but does not necessarily guarantee them.  Bigger and more important piece to me right now is what happens in the Pacific vs. what happens over the pole.   Think MJO has overwhelmingly driven the bus on this pattern for the past several weeks.

2.1" Wilton

Another Tornado warning for Joplin.

Solid hook just south of Dallas.

This thread is way too pessimistic.. There are a good amount of meteorology jobs right now in the energy and commodities sectors, along with alternative energy and met-tech's as well. Not to mention the broadcast openings. I graduated very recently (mid recession), and I can say that a large portion of my class has excellent jobs. We have 3 Wx Risk grads at energy firms, one at a reinsurance firm, one at a global supply chain company, a few in grad school, and the majority of the rest in private forecasting gigs. I think the job scarcity issue is more at play when it comes to general forecaster positions than anything. NWS is tough to get for seasoned mets, let alone kids out of school. Couple that with people who do nothing to further their education post grad (even COMET modules help) and are unwilling to relocate, and you can see why there is a perception that there are no jobs.

Broaden your horizons within meteorology and there are opportunities available. When you do get an opportunity, you have to seize it and you have to shine. Working hard isn't enough...you need to demonstrate social skills, show initiative, and demonstrate your value.

I can tell you right now that majoring in weather risk was the smartest decision I ever made. Commodities and energy scarcity are huge issues right now, and they will only be further stressed as the population grows further. While many people dream of the NWS, there are amazing opportunities out there if you're willing to just go for it. Commodities and energy are where the jobs are going to be moving forward. I'd argue the name on your degree matters too, but that's more about networking.