18 minutes ago, WxDom said:

Any snow/ice reports we can include in our next PNS?

Please include time/location of measurement.

Mine was 6AM measure. 4.5”.  Wilton, CT

1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

What has happened to forecasting recently? This is the second “winter storm warning” we have had this year for 5-10 and we ended up with barely 3.5. The only over performer was back in December with a “dusting to inch” that resulted in 5.5. 

Everyone thinks it’s easy until they have to do it for a living, then it’s not so easy.

4.5” Wilton, CT

Pretty clear warm nose around 750 on this GFS run.  That remains the chief concern, especially coast and jersey.  The globals tend to underdo these at this range.

As I mentioned a couple days ago, you hope you can hold off some of this with decent enough lift, but that's the push/pull of this storm.  

43 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think in the end it ends up similar to tomorrow AM's storm.  There are some aspects of the storm tomorrow I like better than I do this one, wave as a whole is weaker so mid-level WAA might not be as strong so it could surprise and stay snow longer.  This one has the look of one that might be best to the north right now.

They'll be stacking up a decent event Mass to 'Dacks to southern Greens/Whites

The only thing giving me pause about this storm (and it's a big pause) is the 850 low.  Screaming southerlies mean warm nose aloft is almost a guarantee to cause some mixing issues for pretty much all of the CWA.  I like the front end thump potential and you can hold off some of that warm nose with decent lift.

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Dendrite tips his cap.

Certainly not accurate on an HDD basis. 

8 hours ago, USCG RS said:

I have always loved the EPO as an indicator for snow in the NE. I will take a -EPO over just about any teleconnection. 

 

Not all EPO's are created equal.  Positively or negatively tilted has very significant downstream impacts, as does amplitude.

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

LIE and northern state completely snow covered out to central Suffolk. Dangerous night to be on the roads. 
 

somehow the southern state is mainly wet though 

Its called 'proximity to the ocean'

Next 90-120 mins time to see if N Shore can squeeze that extra inch out of this band.

Looks on track so far.

28, SN, 2" on ground here in Wilton, CT.

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Short range models do show an enhanced area on LI to some extent. Wonder if we’ll get a little help from the Sound via convergence on the northerly flow enhancing the snow. 

The north shore special can be good for an extra inch or two.

I've got 2-5 coast with less east end of the island.  3-6 city and immediate northern burbs, upside possible if band. 4-8 north of the usual dividing line Merrit through 287 region.   Not really overthinking this one.  Ratios should be decent north and west.

Nice moderate storm.  

Maintain the view from yesterday that the risk here is likely more to the coastal boundary layer and feel good about snows north of the merrit and west of 287.  

Banding/subsidence risk a bit secondary to timing of CAA on a west wind in my opinion.  You feel better north of merritt, west of 287 on ratios

2 hours ago, North and West said:

Prescribed burns. New Jersey does a lot poorly, but manages forestry very well.


.

There's a limit to how much forestry management can do with this.  Its a perfect trifecta of fire weather conditions.  Just needed one spark.

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Eventually the -PNA and typical Nina warm February will come and we can finally announce time of death for this disaster of a winter. I couldn’t care less about a car topper or brief coating to half inch type event which is all we can seem to pull off. Insane how we’ll likely add more southern cities with significantly more snow than NYC by this time next week or so. I know it’s been colder than the last few winters but with little snow it just makes it more miserable. At least with 40s-50s you can go outside. 

Not saying I'm expecting a cold Feb by any stretch, but if you've got ample source region and a PV piece hanging around this side of the pole, It's hard to truly Nina torch across the northern tier.  You end up with low level cold leakage behind waves, though any cutter you'd obviously torch for that.

1 hour ago, EWR757 said:

They are objective.  The humans that read them are not.

https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/confirmation-bias

Expand your toolbox (diversify) and have multiple sources.  Give less weight to those sources that tend to be statisitically unreliable (GFS, NAM) and more weight to those that are more reliable (ECMWF, Ensembles, New ML models).

“If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail.”

The 'new ML models' are worse in the d5+ range than the EC Ens.  Many are even worse than the GFS Ens.   We have yet to see a model consistently beat the EC Ens despite tricky marketing gimmicks and selective verification to the contrary.  

12z GFS bring the phase back.  Pretty binary y/n with this event.  Weenie porn run.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We just tend to do better here when the NS backs off a bit. Most would be happy with a stronger STJ like we got in January 2016. Things just tend to fall into place easier when we have blocking and a strong STJ. Even La a Nina’s like 20-21 did fine with the NS easing up enough

 

You can also have a strong/juicy STJ in the scenario you're describing and absolutely crush the mid-atl and southeast when the block is too amped while the area gets skunked...

Which is the point.

Just now, bluewave said:

The issue with the Pacific blocking not being able to hold is more a Northern Stream function of lowering heights out West too much with the added shortwaves in the fast flow becoming kickers. A dominant STJ that is strong enough usually has better wave spacing allowing more amplitude and less suppression. Sometimes suppression can become an issue with El Niños which are too weak like 79-80.

It can be argued that the kicker today is actually helping this lift a bit further north than it otherwise would be expected with how amplified this block/pattern is.

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

You don’t think the tpv position really limits how north the system can get today? 

Certainly one of the more dominant features leading to suppression in my opinion.

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Block amplification issues usually occur with a dominant Northern Stream. Plus this block isn’t that strong. Remember back in 2010 with the record STJ and wall to wall -3 to -5 -AO days how the systems had no trouble eventually coming north after 2-6-10. Pure -AO suppression is rare with a strong enough STJ. It only really happened once on 2-6-10. But that was one of the strongest -AOs on record. This event is much weaker. Then the snows eventually came north so only one system was blocked.

Blocking refers to more than just an index value of the AO, as you know.

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I have to think we get something in the end but the fast Pacific pattern might ruin it again. Once we go back to cutters and SE ridge, that obviously shuts off our chances. There always seems to be something wrong or off with every setup we get even in a colder regime and no, that can’t all just be bad luck. It seems to be the northern stream and fast Pacific just flinging crap to interfere with anything trying to dig and setup, and moving things along too fast. 

The issue with this current setup is much more related to block amplification than anything else.

On 12/31/2024 at 6:28 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

i'm wondering if there's a historical catalogue of actual model runs ? 

 i suspect if there ever is/were, this is among the very most extraordinary, if not the goat, virtual prognostic from an operational/purposeful geophysical processing.   

closed sub-500 dm mid level heights by a couple of contours s, of nyc latitude, as a result of 90 deg neg tilting ?   really that's a scenario where any hyperbole is can't be dismissed as merely such. 

okay, i get it but responsible thinking is that most of civility can't heat their homes without electricity - either direct use, or a peripheral to thermal generation.  i suspect most in here have alternate options but ... mm maybe try for some empathy or at least acknowledgement as to how one purports themself.   just a suggestion -

it's about all i'm going to say on this.  the model run has limited chance for being realized as the wholesale synoptic manifold of parametrics, in time,  strains too much credibility.  if we take 1/2 of the ghosted solutions earlier, and average them against this one...that's likely closer to the reality - which would be a major if so..so no loss there.

Vendors have them if you're willing to pay.  But not all parameters.