wiivile

supposedly the canadian models are the best for cloud coverage, and i think the HRDPS is the highest resolution canadian model now that we’re within its range. it looks pretty good for northern NY/VT, and you might be able to find some holes in the clouds in western and central NY: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024040712&fh=32&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=cloudcover&m=hrdps

i don’t mind some high clouds, but im trying to avoid mid and low clouds like the plague

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I would say that's probably wrong unless you head to Plattsburgh it's probably not going to be good at Syracuse (maybe Watertown will be better.)

Yeah, that’s outdated now. NAM is no longer optimistic about NY. Need that front to slow down.

wow these maps keep screwing with my head with the blue/white colors. the NAM looks somewhat more optimistic: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=cloudcover&rh=2024040518&fh=75

isnt the NAM superior to the longer range Euro/GFS within this time range?

That looks better than it has all week though...

The NAM is fairly optimistic about NY. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2024040512&fh=81&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=cloudcover&m=nam

New York will be a nailbiter. That map is for 2pm and totality isn’t til nearly 1.5hrs later. Clouds will be further east. I am using 21z for models that offer it.

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

People from NY are panicking for some reason in the other eclipse thread..... are the chances of clouds in the totality region getting higher?  Specifically talking about Syracuse and the area just north of there.

Yeah, the forecast is somewhat worse than yesterday for Syracuse, Watertown & west, but continues to look good for areas northeast of there. But nothing looks so bad that it would force me to cancel plans at this point, even if the models were 100% accurate. What’s the other eclipse thread?

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If you haven't seen one before, then don't cancel the reservations. If there is even a small chance that you'll get a good view of the eclipse, you go see it. You'll have more regrets if the weather turned out to be fine and you missed out, than if you go and the weather wasn't ideal.

I agree. First of all, go Eagles. Second of all, we are still too far out for any reliable cloud cover modeling. Third, in the Buffalo/Rochester/Syracuse area at least, the cloud cover is currently projected to be around 50%, which could be high clouds that don’t totally ruin the experience or scattered low cumulus clouds that could dissipate as totality nears.

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

https://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=gfs_pgrb2_0p25_f&lat=43.04795&lon=-76.14745&tz=America/New_York&label=Syracuse, New York

 

wow nice-- I just looked up Syracuse and this says 0% high 0% middle and 1% low clouds for Syracuse at 2 PM on Monday the 8th..... this seems just such an impossibly low number of clouds for early April for the northeast.

GFS (which apparently overestimates clouds) seems to think the entire track will have clouds except for northeast NY & VT... https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=cloudcover&rh=2024040112&fh=177

I doubt that will be the case, and of course it's far too early, but right now a week out the best forecasts among most models are northeast NY & VT.

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

On clouds @Winter Wizard is correct the Globals over-estimate cloud cover. Using something like downward solar flux might offer a better approximation than straight cloud forecast - the latter shows any little/thin clouds. Solar flux captures our odds a little better, with understanding we need nearly clear. Cloud cover is unwelcome, but certain types are not the end of the world (esp if you have seen a clear TSE or will have another chance). As @bdgwx wrote some clouds tend to dissipate - especially convective / fair wx Cu.

Unfortunately, the benefit does not apply to mid-high clouds as well. Cooling at the surface kills Cu but not mid-high clouds. While I would always try for clear skies, a thin veil of cirrus is not a total loss. I read that one can see the sharp moon shadow approach on those clouds. Clear is the eerie/majestic darkening curtain. Thin high clouds will show a sharp edge like a cheap B movie shows flying saucers take over. I've never seen it; I don't intend to see it; but, it sounds modestly interesting. Clear skies are absolutely my target. (can't find online source again)

Low clouds is indeed the severe catastrophe of eclipse chasing. One of two bad things happens. Thin low clouds just scatter the light (from the white tops) and mute/destroy the shadow under the moon. Thick overcast is already dark, also scatters light, and only shows a subtle dimming at totality. Absolutely avoid low clouds. (source 1 below)

 

 

As we get closer to April 8, is there any way to tell by cloud cover maps where clouds will be high (less threatening) vs low (more threatening)?