nvck

Record low slp

06z RRFS suggests that this may be more of a Thursday event for us, blowing up a cell right over the metro by midday. will be interesting to see what the 12z suite thinks, but I could see the d4 risk being shifted back west some

gonna go ahead and call a miss north/west here, and will hopefully be proven wrong

More of a march/april look here than anything else, but loving the shear profile

hoping we get some more of an east trend, am pretty tired of getting 2am weakening MCSs, would at least like to see some lightning in the daytime

Looking like another impactful stretch of weather coming up, with Wednesday, as of now, having the highest ceiling. StormNet, CSU-MLP, and other ML products have all had very "hot" runs lately, pretty eyecatching stuff, especially as the northern bound of the highest prob area is over the same area that saw several tornadoes on Thursday. The GEFS has been consistent in showing an area of high P[SCP>1] over portions of Missouri and Illinois, even back into Kansas, for multiple runs now, while other models expand the risk further east towards Ohio. Regardless, very strong flow for this time of the year will overlap an area of ample moisture. Should be an interesting couple days.

Wednesday (Thursday to a lesser extent) looks thread-worthy, might get one going in a bit unless anyone else wants to jump on it

Eyeing next weds for a severe threat here in IL/IN/OH, longwave trough moving into the region, should be a great shear profile. funnily enough, biggest question IMO is how far east the best instability makes it. 

2 tors likely otg SW of grand rapids

Tor for naperville

2 minutes ago, nvck said:

MKE terminal doppler looked pretty telling for a brief tor, will try and get a framegrab

19 minutes ago, TheNiño said:

Given how beautiful the Kenosha storm was there is a TON of pictures/videos coming in. I’m thinking the “public confirmed” tornado was actually a rotating wall cloud that never actually made it to the ground. But given the rotation a lot of people thought it was. 

MKE terminal doppler looked pretty telling for a brief tor, will try and get a framegrab

3 minutes ago, SethToast said:

Anything coming out from the one that just passed over Toluca?

 

https://x.com/Kentucky_WX/status/2065192083921543679?s=20

insane pics coming out of that cell... will be interesting to see how it reacts to these mergers

15 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Developing Edina MO cell looks like a candidate for a long-lived supercell. Got that kidney bean shape.

agreed, wish it wasn't in such a radar hole, but very impressive mid-level meso

eta: warned now!

some MCV magic it looks like in eastern MI today, quite a few tor warnings

interested in the june 15-17 timeframe for a few days of highs potentially in the mid-70s. ensembles have been trending towards a nice respite from the heat/humidity

monday could be interesting, surprised to see the csu come in this hot, but multi-day svr wx possible from the plains up to the upper midwest

13 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

The RRFS is good right? 

the current fv3 RRFS (which afaik is the one rolling out as operational on aug 31) is not great. word on the street (twitter) is that the mpas RRFS is much better, but won't be operational for a while longer

Heading out monday to try and chase tuesday in E KS/MO, looks like a dismal pattern if you're a tornado fan, but could be daily chances for ISO svrs with good hail, which is what we're after. will be out for ~2 weeks, so looks like the pattern should become a bit more favorable after next weekend

11 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Sux to waste a stout EML that worked its way this far East. Those will be harder and harder to come by as we move into mid June.

could be wrong, but IMO there'll be more of these easterly EMLs than usual this summer, given the incredible drought out west. 

Quote

The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a

* Special Marine Warning for...
  Nearshore and Open Waters from St Joseph to Pentwater MI...

* Until 630 PM EDT.

* At 323 PM EDT, destructive winds behind an area of precipitation 
  will spread east across the waters. Winds will be from the east or 
  southeast, making it extremely difficult for small craft to return 
  to port if caught in these winds.

  HAZARD...Wind gusts in excess of 50 knots.

Pretty aggressive wording on this SMW over Lake Michigan

Really, really rare to see this highest level contour on the CSU maps this far out

A rare (the first this season?) warm spring day here with very calm winds. usually we pay a price with these 60s/70s, but thankfully not today

just ripped snow here for about 3 minutes, hasn't dropped below 32 yet today, though.