nvck

https://x.com/i/status/2079366233460281713

Never seen anything like what's going on in Wisconsin rn 

Rare to see the CSU and SPC so at odds (wrt Tuesday). 12k NAM has a couple rounds here locally, one midday and one later in the evening, while the RRFS has just one, in the afternoon. my interest is certainly piqued whenever we get strong flow in the summer, so expecting at least a few SVRs throughout the day.

sig flash flooding here yesterday, 1-in-49 year return period. more prefrontals this afternoon before a shot at something  more substantial tn

looks like we'll get lucky enough to avoid most of it in the cincy metro, aqi around 110 here. just north in middletown, dayton, columbus, seeing readings in the 500-600 range, though.

New hrrr has the whole LP engulfed in smoke by tonight, and most of Ohio by tomorrow morning. 

Mt Pleasant at 100, Oscoda County at 104, models definitely had a good handle on the placement of the hottest temps being northeast central MI

90/69 at the cmu wx station now, maybe signs of dews starting to mix lower? Ticked down over the last half hour, need to see that pick up for a run at 100

102 in thunder bay, 59 across the lake... nature's AC

10 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

incredible things are happening in china

this video is from vietnam, but there was, incredibly, another strong tornado in china a few days ago https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cq61d22ved2o

81/78/89 at 8:30am... No thanks

90/80 imby is tough, air is just so thick. station might be running a bit warm/moist, but another PWS a couple blocks away is showing 93/81. 

don't really buy the slight risk being pushed into Ohio tomorrow, ample shear but MLCAPE will likely be below 300j/kg. like wednesday's event on a budget. 

just had the wettest 2-day stretch on record at the municipal airport here, and those 5.51" came in a ~18 hour span.

3 hours ago, largetornado said:

Had lapse rates been better, your area would have likely seen a couple significant long trackers. the helicity was insane. 

oh for sure, the imagery from TCVG was insane nonetheless with that storm that went through florence

risk definitely verified around here

4 minutes ago, wxfromthelook said:

 

certainly hope not. those cells could split the metro but any rightward movement will bring the southern of the two cells too close for comfort.

i think that southern one will stay south of 275, but the northern one could potentially impact the metro

even with the consistent stratiform stuff here, thinking it could be a busy next few hours, given whats unfolded to my west

80/70 probs on the new watch

HRRR over-mixing bias on display once again, latest run undershoots dew points by several degrees across my area, with obs in the colored labels. 13z RRFS seems to have a much better handle on moisture, although it's under-doing SBCAPE by 750-1000J/kg, per mesoanalysis

47 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Fucking Broyles

he's had some wins in the past, but this is definitely not one of them

1 minute ago, Torchageddon said:

This is my fav MD of 2026 so far, a keeper!

don't disagree w/ the spc often, but not a single tor warning, let alone report, out of that line

Both HRRR & RRFS are too slow, and not far enough SW with the ongoing convection

Not sure if i get the EF4 tor threat mentioned on this MD for the morning convection

looks like a good hail core on that cell NE of grand rapids