nvck

6 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

barry out

6 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

So you’re saying you’re ignoring them because they’re not a boomer

Got it

 

and “permabull” = nobody cares. They usually end up being right.

 

Bearish posts = almost always ends up being wrong at some point and that’s why I will continue to predict a 2017 type season 

Bearish posts are always made by down casters who think emotionally and not realistically 

 

bearish posts always point out their povs by using broken models that usually turn out to be wrong anyway 

the bearish posts usually end up being from wishcasters who want a break from activity 

 

but let’s face it

 

that ain’t happening anytime soon 

 

so let me get this straight

 

if you’re not a boomer

your take = permabull

therefore = doesn’t count

 

got it

 

permabull = the guy who’s actually right

meanwhile “bearish” posts

always “models say”—then models flop

every. single. time.

 

it’s always the same

bearish = just wishcasters who want to binge netflix and not hear about storms for 3 months

never fails

they get one “stable pattern” in may june July even early or mid august, think it’s a break year

by August or september they’re radio silent

 

when’s the last time a bearish preseason post aged well 

ian and Fiona are chomping on popcorn as I speak 

seriously

 

and the whole “permabull” thing

just means you’re under 50 and notice the basin hasn’t had a real bust in like 10 years

but yeah, keep filtering out anyone who isn’t typing like a boomer

 

newsflash: ocean doesn’t care about your feelings

 

bearish = broken model hopium

permabull = actually right

 

dude... take a deep breath... have some herbal tea... take a nap... this is the kinda behavior that makes everyone cheer for a BA season, just to see you take an L

On 7/7/2025 at 8:04 AM, WestMichigan said:

At this point thinking it might take something tropical heading due north to bring anything meaningful this summer.  It is so dry here the corn is shriveling up during the day and the weeds are even starting to dry up.

Yeah, that bullseye near GR is dismal, 25% of normal rain June 8 - July 8

1 hour ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Gary Lezak >>>>>> mainstream forecasters and models. I give up with the models 

https://futuresnow.co/hurricane-forecast-2025/

What are we doing here? This is no better (worse, maybe?) than just throwing darts at a map and calendar and claiming to know when storms are gonna hit

unbelievable 14"+ of rain in 24 hours in central texas, with some areas seeing 19" over 3days

cvg record high for jun 23/24 is 94, which i'm fairly certain will get broken, probably for both days.

Check out this view (from the miniCOW) of the tornadic supercell near Higgins, tx yesterday that I was operating on w/ icechip - we got 15 hailpads out in front of it before it surged south cutting off the planned escape, forcing us to bail east and then south, where we watched as it shelfed out and got a great view.

Interestingly not a ton of hail associated with this storm, and our pads that went directly under the precip core got a couple sparse hits, but far fewer than expected. 

saw my 1st and 2nd tornadoes yesterday while operating on a storm west of lubbock! first wasn't fully condensed, but a vigorous/persistent dust circulation on the ground underneath the meso. second, we saw as it roped out to our east, and there was a circulation obviously still on the ground as evidenced by the dust being kicked up. this somewhat (not really) makes up for missing the massive dusty wedge in morton on thursday

18/9/4

23 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

Peculiar since there is so little lightning illuminating the tornadoes themselves til recently when this monster spun another wedge that was seen a few mins ago. As of 11:38pm CDT, the gtg is 210mph!

Yeah I've seen that on a couple streams, fwiw I've seen less lightning the past hour or so than earlier when the cell was nearer greensburg

Was in Greensburg earlier staging. Ended up dropping farther south for the daytime stuff, but headed to Wichita for the night and the cloud to cloud lightning that cell is throwing off is insane. Just constant bolts, wish I could get a good video

Fairly aggressive mcd from earlier, with an almost maxed out watch now issued

This is looking good for chasing in the plains these weeks

Cincinnati area could see a second round of storms later this afternoon. good clearing in S indiana

36mph max gust so far at the campus weather station, which is pretty impressive as the anemometer is only 10ft off the ground

75/63 right now, only cooled off to 69 overnight, strong south winds all morning

Watch issued:

SEL0

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 180
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northwest Iowa
     Southwest Minnesota
     Extreme Southeast South Dakota

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until
     800 PM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3
       inches in diameter likely
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 80 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along a
   surface front will develop east/northeast through the afternoon.
   These storms will have the potential to produce large to very large
   hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 85 miles north of Redwood Falls MN to
   30 miles west of Storm Lake IA. For a complete depiction of the
   watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 24035.

   ...Leitman

WOFS should be running this afternoon: looks like the first run will come out around 1700z:

https://cbwofs.nssl.noaa.gov/Forecast?model=WOFSRun20250428-132559d1&rd=20250428&rt=202504281700&product=comp_dz__paintballs_thresh_40&sector=wofs

I think the decision to pull the trigger on a day3 MDT was at least partially supported by Broyles et al. findings in the OMEGA project, which found that jet streak translation speeds >40kt are associated with higher-end tornado events. Doing some rough math, from the 6z NAM, it looks like at 6z monday the core of the 500mb jet is over eastern NM, and by 6z Tuesday it's not as obvious where the core of the jet is, but it appears to be somewhere around the northern shore of  Lake Superior. This would suggest a translation speed of around 49kts, well above the threshold mentioned in the paper.

The SPC also mentions the jet translation speed in the outlook: 

 A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from
   the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday.

I could be wrong, but this is my best guess as to why they went moderate today instead of pulling the trigger tomorrow

Here's the paper if you're interested: https://prod-west-spc.woc.noaa.gov/publications/broyles/omega.pdf

Figure it's probably time to start a thread for what looks to be a 2-day severe weather event across the region. CSU (per usual) is pretty aggressive with it's probabilities, but is outlining much of the same area as the SPC has. It's looking like all severe modes are possible on both Monday and Tuesday, and Tuesday has been uptrending over the past couple days, so I'd expect higher probs coming from the SPC.

This should probably have a thread for it soon, maybe including 4/29's 15% as well

Haven't dug into this super closely, but next monday looks active in the sub

Honestly, this winter was probably a B or B+ for me, we had a few nice events up here, but I don't have much of a baseline to compare it to. The real saving grace was being back in cincinnati over winter break, and catching that 11" storm in January, that was pretty incredible, and then a smaller 4" storm with great rates later that week, before heading back to school.

21 minutes ago, Brian D said:

EHH! We need variety!  

you can keep your variety north of the 45th parallel! its time for 50s and 60s!