nvck

4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow! 23F at Sidney, Ohio yesterday. Also, 32F at Springfield, Ohio.

don't buy that 23 at all, lol. some of these COOP sites have terrible siting and should be taken with a grain of salt

Really, really dry august so far, I think based on the (incomplete) xmACIS viewer, this'll be a top-10 driest august for mt. pleasant. Can tell, grass is very brown and some trees are losing leaves a little prematurely. Hoping this mid-week system gets us a good soak, but I don't think it'll be more than a 1/4 inch.

lock it in!

both the gfs and euro ensembles have a high in the low 60s for next Friday here in mt pleasant. Should feel great after a couple days of 80s

Interesting write-up about google's deepmind model, and how it did for erin: https://arstechnica.com/science/2025/08/googles-ai-model-just-nailed-the-forecast-for-the-strongest-atlantic-storm-this-year/

14 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

44.53+ N checking in.

Some color on random maples and cottonwoods, but that happens every year. 

Same around here, between that and the 60s, fall is really hitting nice 

am I crazy or is anyone else seeing a little color on the leaves 

can anyone else at 43.5+ N confirm lol

Looking forward to temps in the mid 60s for the first day of classes on monday, will be a real shock after months of upper 80s and mid 70s dew down here

wow, yeah, close to a foot of rain in MKE the past couple of days, and absolutely nothing across the lake...

Thankfully aqi is down into the 30s here after 24 or so hours around 100. Sucks what you all are dealing with up north

1 hour ago, GoAPPS said:

(Oct. 10) A rare solar storm brought the aurora very far south. I took this photo from the desolation of Foundy Street in the River Arts District.

this is an incredible picture, wow

2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

 

oi, would you look at these lists

remember when it was all proper names, now it’s like the YOOKAY weather report

used to be Andrea, Barry, Karen, now it’s “Humberto,” “Imelda,” “Lorenzo,” “Nestor,” “Pablo,”

and next year we’ve got “Gonzalo,” “Isaias,” “Omar,” “Imani,”

2027 comes along, suddenly it’s “Imani” and “Julian” and “Odette”

then you scroll a bit further, and it’s “Idris,” “Farrah,” “Idalia,” “Jose,” “Miguel,” “Rafael”—what is this, the Notting Hill Carnival?

 

just waiting for the day they throw in a “Deshawn,” “Aaliyah,” and “Tyrone” for full diversity bingo

if “Wendy” ever gets replaced, I’m betting it’s “Lashonda”

won’t be long before a Category 4 makes landfall and it’s “Storm Kwame” battering Cornwall

multicultural britain strikes again—soon you’ll need a pronunciation guide just to read the NHC update

 

back in my day, a storm was called Bob, not “Gonzalo”

progress, they call it

pass me the PG Tips

 

 

 

 

---

 

right, so i’m looking at this year’s hurricane names and i’ve got to ask

when did we swap out Bob and Wendy for Humberto and Imani?

can’t even read half the list without feeling like i’m on the night bus through brixton

proper british storms used to be called something you’d name a golden retriever—barry, karen, bill

now it’s “farrah,” “gonzalo,” “imelda,” “lorenzo”—what’s next, “storm shaniqua” and “hurricane deshawn” making a landfall in devon?

 

can’t wait for the NHC to start posting pronunciation guides in punjabi, just for inclusivity

soon as “Wendy” retires, bet your last rich tea it’s getting replaced by “Laquisha” or “Adebola”

back in the day under thatcher, storms hit with names like bob and andrew—flattened your house and didn’t need a passport

now it’s “humberto” and “idris”—i’m half-expecting the shipping forecast to start with “big up to storm leroy” battering the channel islands

 

progress, they call it

one day you’re tracking hurricane bill, next thing you know, it’s hurricane omar raving it up over the isles of scilly

this is what multicultural britain looks like—YOOKAY 2025, mate

where’s my PG Tips and a proper storm called Nigel?

Take your meds, man

6 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

barry out

6 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

So you’re saying you’re ignoring them because they’re not a boomer

Got it

 

and “permabull” = nobody cares. They usually end up being right.

 

Bearish posts = almost always ends up being wrong at some point and that’s why I will continue to predict a 2017 type season 

Bearish posts are always made by down casters who think emotionally and not realistically 

 

bearish posts always point out their povs by using broken models that usually turn out to be wrong anyway 

the bearish posts usually end up being from wishcasters who want a break from activity 

 

but let’s face it

 

that ain’t happening anytime soon 

 

so let me get this straight

 

if you’re not a boomer

your take = permabull

therefore = doesn’t count

 

got it

 

permabull = the guy who’s actually right

meanwhile “bearish” posts

always “models say”—then models flop

every. single. time.

 

it’s always the same

bearish = just wishcasters who want to binge netflix and not hear about storms for 3 months

never fails

they get one “stable pattern” in may june July even early or mid august, think it’s a break year

by August or september they’re radio silent

 

when’s the last time a bearish preseason post aged well 

ian and Fiona are chomping on popcorn as I speak 

seriously

 

and the whole “permabull” thing

just means you’re under 50 and notice the basin hasn’t had a real bust in like 10 years

but yeah, keep filtering out anyone who isn’t typing like a boomer

 

newsflash: ocean doesn’t care about your feelings

 

bearish = broken model hopium

permabull = actually right

 

dude... take a deep breath... have some herbal tea... take a nap... this is the kinda behavior that makes everyone cheer for a BA season, just to see you take an L

On 7/7/2025 at 8:04 AM, WestMichigan said:

At this point thinking it might take something tropical heading due north to bring anything meaningful this summer.  It is so dry here the corn is shriveling up during the day and the weeds are even starting to dry up.

Yeah, that bullseye near GR is dismal, 25% of normal rain June 8 - July 8

1 hour ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Gary Lezak >>>>>> mainstream forecasters and models. I give up with the models 

https://futuresnow.co/hurricane-forecast-2025/

What are we doing here? This is no better (worse, maybe?) than just throwing darts at a map and calendar and claiming to know when storms are gonna hit

unbelievable 14"+ of rain in 24 hours in central texas, with some areas seeing 19" over 3days

cvg record high for jun 23/24 is 94, which i'm fairly certain will get broken, probably for both days.

Check out this view (from the miniCOW) of the tornadic supercell near Higgins, tx yesterday that I was operating on w/ icechip - we got 15 hailpads out in front of it before it surged south cutting off the planned escape, forcing us to bail east and then south, where we watched as it shelfed out and got a great view.

Interestingly not a ton of hail associated with this storm, and our pads that went directly under the precip core got a couple sparse hits, but far fewer than expected. 

saw my 1st and 2nd tornadoes yesterday while operating on a storm west of lubbock! first wasn't fully condensed, but a vigorous/persistent dust circulation on the ground underneath the meso. second, we saw as it roped out to our east, and there was a circulation obviously still on the ground as evidenced by the dust being kicked up. this somewhat (not really) makes up for missing the massive dusty wedge in morton on thursday

18/9/4

23 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

Peculiar since there is so little lightning illuminating the tornadoes themselves til recently when this monster spun another wedge that was seen a few mins ago. As of 11:38pm CDT, the gtg is 210mph!

Yeah I've seen that on a couple streams, fwiw I've seen less lightning the past hour or so than earlier when the cell was nearer greensburg

Was in Greensburg earlier staging. Ended up dropping farther south for the daytime stuff, but headed to Wichita for the night and the cloud to cloud lightning that cell is throwing off is insane. Just constant bolts, wish I could get a good video

Fairly aggressive mcd from earlier, with an almost maxed out watch now issued