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nvck

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Posts posted by nvck

  1. 6 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

    So you’re saying you’re ignoring them because they’re not a boomer

    Got it

     

    and “permabull” = nobody cares. They usually end up being right.

     

    Bearish posts = almost always ends up being wrong at some point and that’s why I will continue to predict a 2017 type season 

    Bearish posts are always made by down casters who think emotionally and not realistically 

     

    bearish posts always point out their povs by using broken models that usually turn out to be wrong anyway 

    the bearish posts usually end up being from wishcasters who want a break from activity 

     

    but let’s face it

     

    that ain’t happening anytime soon 

     

    so let me get this straight

     

    if you’re not a boomer

    your take = permabull

    therefore = doesn’t count

     

    got it

     

    permabull = the guy who’s actually right

    meanwhile “bearish” posts

    always “models say”—then models flop

    every. single. time.

     

    it’s always the same

    bearish = just wishcasters who want to binge netflix and not hear about storms for 3 months

    never fails

    they get one “stable pattern” in may june July even early or mid august, think it’s a break year

    by August or september they’re radio silent

     

    when’s the last time a bearish preseason post aged well 

    ian and Fiona are chomping on popcorn as I speak 

    seriously

     

    and the whole “permabull” thing

    just means you’re under 50 and notice the basin hasn’t had a real bust in like 10 years

    but yeah, keep filtering out anyone who isn’t typing like a boomer

     

    newsflash: ocean doesn’t care about your feelings

     

    bearish = broken model hopium

    permabull = actually right

     

    dude... take a deep breath... have some herbal tea... take a nap... this is the kinda behavior that makes everyone cheer for a BA season, just to see you take an L

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  2. On 7/7/2025 at 8:04 AM, WestMichigan said:

    At this point thinking it might take something tropical heading due north to bring anything meaningful this summer.  It is so dry here the corn is shriveling up during the day and the weeds are even starting to dry up.

    image.png.8b753793690471816aa5480c55d28346.png

    Yeah, that bullseye near GR is dismal, 25% of normal rain June 8 - July 8

  3. Check out this view (from the miniCOW) of the tornadic supercell near Higgins, tx yesterday that I was operating on w/ icechip - we got 15 hailpads out in front of it before it surged south cutting off the planned escape, forcing us to bail east and then south, where we watched as it shelfed out and got a great view.

    Interestingly not a ton of hail associated with this storm, and our pads that went directly under the precip core got a couple sparse hits, but far fewer than expected. 

    PXL_20250618_012758918~2.jpg

    COW2-PPI-DBZHC_F-20250618011835-10136.png

    • Like 3
  4. image.thumb.jpeg.8bd2258055d6c6d12481310fd0fa5dcd.jpegimage.thumb.png.252e47b900eea7f0459d26328f9dfb6f.png

     

    image.thumb.jpeg.6ed84cbf15a9397c1152bd22089b19fe.jpeg

     

    saw my 1st and 2nd tornadoes yesterday while operating on a storm west of lubbock! first wasn't fully condensed, but a vigorous/persistent dust circulation on the ground underneath the meso. second, we saw as it roped out to our east, and there was a circulation obviously still on the ground as evidenced by the dust being kicked up. this somewhat (not really) makes up for missing the massive dusty wedge in morton on thursday

    • Like 7
  5. 23 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

    Peculiar since there is so little lightning illuminating the tornadoes themselves til recently when this monster spun another wedge that was seen a few mins ago. As of 11:38pm CDT, the gtg is 210mph!

    Yeah I've seen that on a couple streams, fwiw I've seen less lightning the past hour or so than earlier when the cell was nearer greensburg

    • Like 1
  6. Was in Greensburg earlier staging. Ended up dropping farther south for the daytime stuff, but headed to Wichita for the night and the cloud to cloud lightning that cell is throwing off is insane. Just constant bolts, wish I could get a good video

    • Like 1
  7. image.thumb.png.44f5a45c66ae841b04ca6d9486205f63.pngbeen learning metpy, and made this plot layering hrrr fh0 data for surface temps, pressure, and composite reflectivity. interesting how warm it is in minnesota especially, compared to literally anywhere farther south
  8. Watch issued:

    SEL0
    
       URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
       Tornado Watch Number 180
       NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
       1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025
    
       The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
    
       * Tornado Watch for portions of 
         Northwest Iowa
         Southwest Minnesota
         Extreme Southeast South Dakota
    
       * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until
         800 PM CDT.
    
       * Primary threats include...
         A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
         Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3
           inches in diameter likely
         Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
           to 80 mph possible
    
       SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along a
       surface front will develop east/northeast through the afternoon.
       These storms will have the potential to produce large to very large
       hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes.
    
       The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles
       east and west of a line from 85 miles north of Redwood Falls MN to
       30 miles west of Storm Lake IA. For a complete depiction of the
       watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
    
       PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
       REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
       tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
       area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
       threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
       and possible warnings.
    
       &&
    
       AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
       surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
       gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
       storm motion vector 24035.
    
       ...Leitman
  9. I think the decision to pull the trigger on a day3 MDT was at least partially supported by Broyles et al. findings in the OMEGA project, which found that jet streak translation speeds >40kt are associated with higher-end tornado events. Doing some rough math, from the 6z NAM, it looks like at 6z monday the core of the 500mb jet is over eastern NM, and by 6z Tuesday it's not as obvious where the core of the jet is, but it appears to be somewhere around the northern shore of  Lake Superior. This would suggest a translation speed of around 49kts, well above the threshold mentioned in the paper.

    The SPC also mentions the jet translation speed in the outlook: 

     A strong mid-level jet streak will move rapidly northeastward from
       the Southwest to the Upper Midwest on Monday.

    1129842096_Screenshot2025-04-26at10-02-24cincywxgraphics-GoogleSlides.thumb.png.f343c48e4cbe3a1f78e7915a9ad26584.png

    I could be wrong, but this is my best guess as to why they went moderate today instead of pulling the trigger tomorrow

    Here's the paper if you're interested: https://prod-west-spc.woc.noaa.gov/publications/broyles/omega.pdf

    • Like 5
  10. Figure it's probably time to start a thread for what looks to be a 2-day severe weather event across the region. CSU (per usual) is pretty aggressive with it's probabilities, but is outlining much of the same area as the SPC has. It's looking like all severe modes are possible on both Monday and Tuesday, and Tuesday has been uptrending over the past couple days, so I'd expect higher probs coming from the SPC.

    Screenshot 2025-04-25 at 09-20-18 Models EPS — Pivotal Weather.png

    Screenshot 2025-04-25 at 09-19-35 CSU-MLP Severe.png

    Screenshot 2025-04-25 at 09-19-28 CSU-MLP Severe.png

    • 100% 1
  11. Honestly, this winter was probably a B or B+ for me, we had a few nice events up here, but I don't have much of a baseline to compare it to. The real saving grace was being back in cincinnati over winter break, and catching that 11" storm in January, that was pretty incredible, and then a smaller 4" storm with great rates later that week, before heading back to school.

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