nvck

New hrrr has the whole LP engulfed in smoke by tonight, and most of Ohio by tomorrow morning. 

Mt Pleasant at 100, Oscoda County at 104, models definitely had a good handle on the placement of the hottest temps being northeast central MI

90/69 at the cmu wx station now, maybe signs of dews starting to mix lower? Ticked down over the last half hour, need to see that pick up for a run at 100

102 in thunder bay, 59 across the lake... nature's AC

10 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

incredible things are happening in china

this video is from vietnam, but there was, incredibly, another strong tornado in china a few days ago https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cq61d22ved2o

81/78/89 at 8:30am... No thanks

90/80 imby is tough, air is just so thick. station might be running a bit warm/moist, but another PWS a couple blocks away is showing 93/81. 

don't really buy the slight risk being pushed into Ohio tomorrow, ample shear but MLCAPE will likely be below 300j/kg. like wednesday's event on a budget. 

just had the wettest 2-day stretch on record at the municipal airport here, and those 5.51" came in a ~18 hour span.

3 hours ago, largetornado said:

Had lapse rates been better, your area would have likely seen a couple significant long trackers. the helicity was insane. 

oh for sure, the imagery from TCVG was insane nonetheless with that storm that went through florence

risk definitely verified around here

4 minutes ago, wxfromthelook said:

 

certainly hope not. those cells could split the metro but any rightward movement will bring the southern of the two cells too close for comfort.

i think that southern one will stay south of 275, but the northern one could potentially impact the metro

even with the consistent stratiform stuff here, thinking it could be a busy next few hours, given whats unfolded to my west

80/70 probs on the new watch

HRRR over-mixing bias on display once again, latest run undershoots dew points by several degrees across my area, with obs in the colored labels. 13z RRFS seems to have a much better handle on moisture, although it's under-doing SBCAPE by 750-1000J/kg, per mesoanalysis

47 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Fucking Broyles

he's had some wins in the past, but this is definitely not one of them

1 minute ago, Torchageddon said:

This is my fav MD of 2026 so far, a keeper!

don't disagree w/ the spc often, but not a single tor warning, let alone report, out of that line

Both HRRR & RRFS are too slow, and not far enough SW with the ongoing convection

Not sure if i get the EF4 tor threat mentioned on this MD for the morning convection

looks like a good hail core on that cell NE of grand rapids

Dayton/ points west in the afternoon look interesting for something semi-discrete in the daytime around here. 

Record low slp

06z RRFS suggests that this may be more of a Thursday event for us, blowing up a cell right over the metro by midday. will be interesting to see what the 12z suite thinks, but I could see the d4 risk being shifted back west some

gonna go ahead and call a miss north/west here, and will hopefully be proven wrong

More of a march/april look here than anything else, but loving the shear profile