BTRWx

Members
  • Content Count

    5,344
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by BTRWx


  1. 5 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

    I'll post a comparison image to last night's euro (and maybe the upcoming 12Z euro) to this 12Z gfs run for later frames.  Notice the trough coming east across the conus as Maria tracks just west of Bermuda!  The forward speed of Maria will be significant imo.

    0Z ecmwf (trough)

    ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_9.png

    12Z gfs (no trough)

    gfs_z500aNorm_namer_33.png


  2. 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    Really incredible series of storms that have RI'd. By my count: 

    7 of the last 8 named storms have become hurricanes
    4 of the last 6 hurricanes have become majors
    All 4 majors have become at least Cat 4s

    The law of averages ended the major landfall drought more abruptly than our snow drought a few years ago!


  3. 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

    There is a reason he has a daily post limit!  Don't get me wrong I agree with his assessment right now but it's also not a coincidence that he only seems to show up when there is bad news. 

    Is anyone else as confused about this as I am?


  4. 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    The backyard aspect is paramount here. I want to kick puppies every time wnwxluvr says 12-13 was ok.  Lol. I can't blame him and nobody can blame me. It's part of the "fun" we have living in the MA. 

    My yard is usually somewhere in the middle of win and fail gradient events. I get enough to not want to kill small animals but never nearly enough to want to disrobe.

     

    Most of us are screwed.


  5. 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    TD 14 has become Tropical Storm Lee, which will break the streak of consecutive hurricanes and majors. Lee is a POS that isn't going to do anything. 

    However, 96L is going to be designated as PTC 15 at 11am, meaning watches are probably going up for the islands simultaneously. 

    I know it is really early, but I am as bullish on the track and intensity of future Maria as any storm this season. That doesn't mean it becomes another super cane like Irma lol, but everything is there for it to be a threat to the US and become a major hurricane barring interaction with Hispaniola. 

    I say that because of Jose. The second loop that was hinted at by some guidance looks less likely, and if Jose is able to exit stage right, that should allow the ridging to rebuild, forcing future Maria westward toward the US. Whether it makes landfall is obviously so far away as to be ridiculous to talk about, but you look at that environment and that potential UL pattern and that almost screams trouble IMO. 

    vis_lalo-animated.gif

    As for the rest of the season...I've been front and center about how strongly I believed the peak of the season would be active. I don't see it slowing down much as we head into the second peak of October. SSTs and TCHP remain high. 

    2017252at.jpg.aaaa95305c3ff5b4b59f4333025e0b71.jpg2017252atd26.png.7e2287ef8829724f939a7cfbb8b1a10a.png

    Not only that, we see a big reduction in SAL (as expected) and shear doesn't look awfully high--though we need to look at shear as things pop to see what the potential is. 

    splitE.thumb.jpg.ad8373294fa1096dc28c81bd0ba4f02a.jpg

    Finally--let's talk about ENSO again! 

    Eric Blake (from the NHC) was harping on it this morning and he's absolutely right--with a possible Nina forming and a favorable environment right now, we have to watch the NW Caribbean, SW Atlantic and GOM for things to pop as we get more low level vorticity in the climo favored areas late in the season. 

    With a ridging dominant pattern that looks to continue in the Atlantic, stronger troughs as we head into fall, and a hot environment out in the basin, I have goosebumps a little. We've already had two historic US landfalls, four consecutive majors, and 5 hurricanes. This is a strong season and it's not ready to back down yet...

    That's a scary thought with recent happenings.