BTRWx

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Posts posted by BTRWx

  5. Posted

    7 minutes ago, H2O said:

    Hey, only 95% of my posts are never to be taken seriously.

     

    But i was partly kidding with my Ukie post.  My intent was to point out how it was closer to the truth than the GGEM which for whatever reason(and is rarely right) gets posted like there is a chance it will be right this time.  GGEM is NAM or CRAS worthy.

    unless its winter and we are getting neige'd to death in mms.  Then it is valid

    Based on discussions over the last couple weeks regarding the ukie, your comment seemed realistic to me.

  8. Posted

    12 minutes ago, mappy said:

    Timing really is a thing here. If we want an east coast hit (and I mean, we are weenies, so we do, but thinking of moderating that kills me a little bit inside), we need Maria to thread the needle (drink!). Squeeze in between the WAR and incoming trough that will kick it back out to sea.

    If that trough deepens and tilts, I think it could help us.  I think one of the euro runs yesterday was close to that.

    The trough placement from this 12z euro frame from yesterday and where Maria has been trending today comes close. 

    ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_10.png

  9. Posted

    4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

    Why does it seem like, no matter what, everytime there's even a remote shot of a tropical system, some model, somewhere in the forecast period, takes the system up the mouth of the bay? :lol::lol: Lol I mean without fail, hahaha (has there ever even been a time where that actually happened??)

    Irene went over the mouth (barely).

  12. Posted

    1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

    If that uber trough on the models out west progged to head east is real, no way Maria has any impact on us. Scraper to OBX? Maybe, but that's the first decent fall trough coming east and Maria doesn't have a chance against.....if the models are progging it close to accurately attm.

    Too many definitive statements are being made at range.

  20. Posted

    3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    It has, which makes sense when looking at the HH data the last few days, but I wonder if that will plateau as it goes post-tropical. Wouldn't be surprised if it is able to maintain some strength due to baroclinic processes rather than tropical. I don't think it necessarily has to be strong at the surface to pop an escape hatch in that ridge for Maria. 

    After a second look, its intensity actually seems to be wobbling a lot from run to run for both ops and ens.

  22. Posted

    11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    Yep. Told him if all he ever does is pop in to deliver bad news it's unnecessary, we have plenty to do that here already. 

    I just want to see posts more realistic, though I could definitely do a better job with that too.