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Posts posted by BTRWx

  1. 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    Considering the state of the ssts in that region last summer, it probably means something.

    I think we'll get some blocking.

    Imo, very few winters go without any blocking at some point between November and March.


    ssta NASA August 2017.png

    ssta NASA August 2016.png

  2. 4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

    Cold Novembers are more a classic mod-strong Nino head fake tendency before things usually begin to torch December onward.  Ninas as you found are usually all over the place.  I thnik some of the stronger La Ninas have shown tendencies for cold Octobers in the East. 

    I noticed that favorable and unfavorable winter weak ninas here both tend to produce cold November patterns over this region.  The next challenge is to find a warm weak nina November that was +snow for winter.  I may eta what I find.

    eta: The only year I've found is 1964 (17")...Such limited analog anomalies are so fascinating to me!

  3. 1 hour ago, RDM said:

    Indeed - fascinating reading.  Can you imagine the calamity something like that would cause today?  Back then in a predominately rural society, people were far more self sufficient and able to cope with adversity.  In today's far more urban setting, the dependencies focused on the supply chain of goods to sustain health and well-being is such that most larger urban cities only have sufficient food and goods to sustain its population for a few days.  Something as outlined in that article would bring transportation to a grinding halt (no diesel) and resemble Katrina and NO on a grand scale, especially in the larger cities.  When people get hungry, things get out of hand real quick.

       Growing up in Ohio during the blizzard of 78, there were references made to the winter of 17/18.  The 78 event really challenged society across a broad area.  The impact on schools, commerce, supply chain, and even the rural farms was immense - the national guard dropped feed with helicopter because farmers could not get out to take care of livestock other than those with draft horses and sleds (very few).  Dairy was hit very hard.  Roads in our area North of Dayton were closed for well over a week until the large snow blowers deployed from Dayton Airport and Wright Patterson AFB.  It was really something to see their handiwork.  It was not only the snow, and deep drifts, but the prolonged cold.  Never got above freezing for over a month afterwards.  Our village of 5500 survived, but it was slim pickings on the shelves of the one grocery in town.

    Your response is inspirational.  Me not understanding self-sufficiency well enough has been challenging even after my many years as a Boy Scout.

  4. 13 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

    No, it's not.  Not in October.  Kiss of death for winter if it happens.

    This is way off the deep end, but the one ideal parabolic nina winter for seasonal snowfall from Oct to March April was 1917-1918 (36" dca)

    eta: March was a dud

    Oct Nov Dec winter good snow 1917 to 1918.png

  5. 1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

    You know, I'll be honest...I lack the chops to do the research that a lot folks do on here....Not that I dont want to learn ...but kids, job , life bla bla bla

    So, I did the poor man's version of climatology research and looked at last year's winter thread in mid oct as we headed into a's almost a carbon copy of the current discussion.  Ive been watching the pv lately and have been encouraged by it's failure to get it's act together but....this time last year there was already talk of a split happening.  A lot of hope being thrown around and where did we end up???  My only hope is that this nina doesnt have the force to overwhelm the entire winter like last year. 


  6. 56 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    They already do. The aleutian trough/pna ridge is a pretty standard feature in a Nino. That's why I don't think the pattern will hold for long. But it's nice to see either way. 

    5 day mean looks like a Nino:




    250mb jet shows a nice split flow with the pac splitting with the northern branch riding up and over the PNA ridge and the southern branch riding underneath from HI and across the soutern tier of the country. 




    The 2 branches could phase and spin up a nice storm for someone down the line 10+ days. Not a snowstorm for us obviously. But I wouldn't be surprised if a nice Oct synoptic event like the one on the 12z gfs starts showing up off and on going forward. The 12z gfs is a pretty classic NS/STJ phase coastal. 


    You can see the branches getting ready to phase right here with a decent NS vort diving down:




    And  then this bad boy spins up:




    Day 15 nina chaos...

  7. 1 hour ago, RDM said:

    Agree with PA Sn.  Great post showme...  

         In the case of the jet, at least the PAC jet, laminar flow is a bad thing, so it appears.  We want some non-laminar mixing in there (wrt the flow around the pole) with some appropriately placed troughs to link up with the STJ to promote phasing.  One observation and don't mean to be nitpicking here...  the map for 01 Nov shows a STJ out of the gulf (originating off the coast of Baja) with a low off the coast of SC.  It appears the cold is too far North, no?  Or is perhaps that map on 01 a precursor for the ridge in PAC Jet to phase with with the STJ and spin up something decent?  (not predicting MECS or HECS here, but that setup does look enticing).  Wish we could see what's going on at the same time IVO 50/50 to help drive the cold down and/or generate some blocking.  Or, maybe it's there and my weenie eyes are to blind to see it.

    I'll bite after in-range ensembles show it.

    eta: within a week out

  8. 13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

    Here's some maps from 10/29/2011. Its one of my favorite storms of all time given the time of year and downright rarity. 5.5 " in my yard . I'll never see that again most likely.  PSU got 7+" i think.  Sabillisville in the Catoctins got a foot . This map below isn't the most accurate but gives the basic idea.




    Noaa probabilities the day before


    I remember this well!

  9. 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

    Yeah, I had seen the deluge that we will see in the Pacific northwest into southwestern Canada, which is typical with a Nina coming off the Pacific. But I thought you had mentioned that there is a stark difference on the snowfall between the northern and southern portions of Colorado depending on the ENSO state and just wondered if the fact we see it forecasted throughout the mountains might mean we were seeing a slight tweaking of the typical Nina weather pattern downstream through the CONUS.

    page 9

  10. 3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

    Careful, you'll be "branded' a weenie for posting that map if it shows great years and praised as an intellectual if it has lousy ones. Lol

    I prefer those over the randomness from CIPS imo.