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Posts posted by BTRWx

  1. 1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

    You are into visual checks right? This is what my analog system (for winter) has for October v. current conditions. I couldn't really get the pattern for winter using just La Nina, you need some cold-Neutrals in there too. You have to imagine an extra 0.1C of warmth everywhere given the analogs are centered on 1979, but are mostly warm AMO years.


    Wow!  Excellent work there and thanks for sharing!  Is there anything you would be willing to share with us about how you came up with that without giving away the actual years?

    eta: I see your discussion in the forecasting and discussion thread.

  2. 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

    Maybe not 70 and sunny, but you probably will get your wish on the snowfall part of it.  Although ............

    ..........what I can see of the Euro does look pretty chilly for Sun/Mon, maybe flakes.  Need better access than I have to see that.

    I'll be down that way next weekend and am so eager to see what happens!

  3. 18 hours ago, BristowWx said:

    Absolutely that would be some real cold rain for the lower elevations if precipitation were associated with that pattern with possible rain mixed with snow changing all snow at elevation above 2000 feet including skyline Drive.  

    The lack of archived upper air maps available sucks, but I did come across an interesting one from NOAA.

    Modeling for next week looks so similar to me!  Notice how far north the 540 line was that day.  We need the trough to tilt slightly negative for the goods.




  4. 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

    Day 15 Eps mean 500mb looks even better then 0z  with GL ridging especially and as well as nice ridging in western Can.and Alaska.

    It doesn't get much better than that for this time of year even if winter sucks later on! :snowman:

  5. 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    That would have been me a few years ago but I don't drink anymore. As long as the TCP is in DC I'm all set though. It will be a little hazy in my room. 

    Never have and never will, kudos!

  6. 42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    With the first long range thread now up, I figured it was time to give people a first look at The Panic Room for the 2017-2018 season. 

    The last two years have been extraordinary for business, with last year generating the most robust activity. In fact, it was so robust with people jumping and coming back from the dead the place was left in shambles. 


    That's ok though. After a long offseason with round the clock renovations, The Panic Room is set to open in just a few weeks and will be bigger and better than ever. 



    The accommodations will be top shelf for all the broken winter weenies that want to go hog wild and spend their final days tracking the many fails to come.

    This year, in addition to having a lake for fishing, we offer remodeled poetry rooms, model tracking stations, and community scream rooms. complab.jpg.a232f7ebccf5d847e4cf306a224b1c28.jpg

    For the first time, we are offering three different packages to DC area weenies. 

    TPC Luxury Package
    With The Panic Room Luxury Package, residents will get the best that we have to offer. Enjoy pristine views of the backyard and convertible cemetery, unlimited alcohol, and exceptional care when you decide to give up on winter and redeem your winter weenie soul.



    TPC Premium Package
    Under our Premium Package, you will get excellent accommodations while living and preferential tombstone placement when crossing over to the other side. 



    TPC Standard Package
    If TPC Luxury and TPC Premium are out of your budget, or you just want the traditional feel of Panic Room's of old, we've got you covered! Enjoy a stay in our chambers. You will get a bed (not pictured), a window, comfortable flooring, and newly renovated rooms with the crispest white finish you've ever seen! 


    I expect another banner year for The Panic Room. We are working hard to get the last patches of soil covered before the season approaches. We have more than enough room with an annex field for use if an outbreak claims double the number as last year. 


    Finally, and perhaps most important, I have developed hidden armory stations located throughout the facility in case of weenie zombie attack or war with Philly, SNE, or the SE. 


    I'm excited about the coming winter. Hope you are too! I'll be seeing ya :) 


    A for effort for sure!  :grad:

    • Like 1

  7. 29 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    The behavior of the PV (strat and trop) during all of fall is an important indicator as to how strong it will be and also predominant location during winter. We've had multiple years of a pretty strong strat and trop PV during fall and blocking has been completely absent for the most part for all of those years. Any panel that shows a weakened PV or above normal heights in the AO/NAO domain space is a welcome sight at any time. 

    The last year we had year blocking early in winter was 2010. This is the November h5 anomaly panel:




    November isn't as important as December. December is the most important when it comes to anomalies in the AO/NAO regions. 

    I definitely agree that November and December patterns are key to most winter setups.  That 2010 November scenario leading into December and winter may have looked quite different if the time period of the torch over Greenland was earlier.

    Blocking impacts for this region in November, December, and January are very different.

    November 2010 500 mb first week.gif


    November 2010 500 mb second week.gif

  8. 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    During Nov/Dec the last thing we want is a delay because the state of the AO going into Dec can tell a large part of the story for how our winter is going to play out in the blocking dept. We want disruption and displacement as much as possible from now on. We've seen what a strong PV in Nov and Dec can do 3 years in a row. We need the opposite. 

    What about early November?

  9. 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

    If blank, model image not available

    EPS not quite as strong with the high-latitude blocking in early Nov, but same general idea.  

    The longer Greenland blocking is delayed (but not denied), the better!

    eta: What I mean by that is the existence of blocking is so important later on when considering its effect with climo.  If blocking were to form today, would it be able to last long enough when we need it later in the winter?  Imo, the last thing we want for winter as a whole is having blocking develop and fade before winter can even get going.

  10. 4 hours ago, yoda said:

    I am hoping to see LE snows in late December when I am up visiting my grandmother in Amherst, NY (right near Buffalo).  Unfortunately, she misses alot of the LE snows because they are usually to her south

    :wub: I'm going to miss you up there by a month!  I've always called Western New York my home away from home.  I have relatives in the southern tier and within the Niagara towns.