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Posts posted by BTRWx

  1. 2 hours ago, Wonderdog said:

    Looks like two low pressure systems one of them just southeast of New Jersey and the other further Southeast in the ocean that consolidate eventually over Northern New York on the 12z GFS! And the negative tilt that occurs helps that ocean low consolidate with the other. Does anyone know if this is mimicking the infamous Veterans Day storm 20 or so years ago?

    You almost had me with a "like". lol

    eta: That storm originated in Texas.

  2. 53 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

    Odd all the talk there has been of potentially seeing snow with this storm. Its not cold, and its October. Even Canaan will see at most a couple inches with snow showers on the backside Sunday night.

    Man, y'alls memories are short.  What happens before a majority of our MECS?... (not a forecast)

  3. 38 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

    I think someone should start a new thread for the weekend. Most of us are off work and will have lots of time to fill the thread with meaningless drivel. But it looks like the most active weather weekend in awhile.

    Go for it bmore!

  4. 24 minutes ago, high risk said:

    The front has really slowed down in the guidance since earlier today.    NAM and GFS previously had the front going through very early with temps into the 40s here by early afternoon;  both models tonight don't even have the front making it to the Bay by 18z Sunday.

    surprise, surprise

  5. 50 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

    Area just south of Winchester with 1.9" of precip in 6 hours, 850s at 0, temps ~39. Could be a nail biter out there for some interesting stuff.

    I was going to say, not a peep about the euro?!

  6. 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

    It is very easy in the sense that multiple month lead forecasting is nothing but educated guesswork. If you look at all the data on hand right now, the only guess that makes sense is higher odds of AN temps and BN snow. That can easily change as we move towards winter. I can point out a bunch of things to back up my guess. That's all it is too. A guess. But it's at least back by evidence. 

    If someone has a compelling argument for BN temps and AN snow I would love to hear it honestly.  

    To clarify, I believe everyone is generally on the same page for the long term pattern.  What I was questioning was the "likely" "easy call" context.  Bob said either yesterday or the day before how 2013-2014 was looking closer to what could develop later on.  My goal moving forward will be to be as objective as possible without sounding so critical. 

  7. 3 hours ago, yoda said:

    So it begins

    Western Pendleton-
    Including the city of Riverton
    730 AM EDT Wed Oct 25 2017
    .TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then mostly cloudy with a
    slight chance of rain showers this afternoon. Highs in the upper
    40s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph this morning.
    Chance of rain 20 percent.
    .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers.
    Snow accumulation up to 1 inch possible. Lows in the lower 30s.
    Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of
    precipitation 50 percent.

    Another interesting AFD to go along with it!

  8. 18 minutes ago, Mason Dixon said:

    Terrific discussion in here guys. Really great stuff. Sure beats the thread in the NYC forum which is snowdummy19 talking to himself with one post after another on how horrible the winter will be. 

    I know how he feels.  Sometimes my thoughts transfer to the keyboard too fast for these folks.

  9. 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    I've looked at literally thousands of model runs over the years. The 12z gfs had a 1048hp over AK @ d9. I thought it looked suspect but who really cares about hp over AK at 9 days leads. Amazingly, the euro has a 1052. lol. I think that's the highest pressure I've ever seen over NA in the fall. 2014 had some ridiculous HP's in western canada during Jan. Going off a foggy memory but I remember seeing a 1060? on a model run in 2014. 


    I guess this counts.  It's interesting to see how localized the ridge is modeled to be situated surrounded by so many low height anomalies.


  10. 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

    Yeah it is, but it seems that finally some color is popping out in the last week. Probably a solid two weeks behind where it should be though.

    Is it just me or is foliage better near the metros this year?  Imby, some trees still show healthy green leaves, but just on the other side of the street the reds and yellows look amazing!

    As a side note, I have this random theory...the overall seasonal brightness can be used to forecast winter temperature anomalies.  Hear me out.  Because healthy vegetation relies on ideal temperature and precipitation patterns, one can hypothesize that greener growth late in autumn may imply warm signals in the longer range.  I think precipitation during the middle of the summer allowed leaves to grow healthily and are lasting this late due to the warmth we've had since much of September, despite dryness over recent weeks.

    Perhaps those of us who haven't seen so much color would be most threatened by winter's vengeance? :snowman: