BTRWx

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  4. Posted

    1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

    I can't do that anymore. There was a time when I had unlimited storage. After the board upgrade, I was way way over my upload limit and got stuck with over 1000 images that I have to delete individually to open up space. Screw that S man. It would take hours. Mods and admins said that there is no other way to clear them out. Which is dumb but I can't do anything about it  

    If you uploaded any videos, those can free up more space.

  7. Posted

    2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    Pretty unanimous agreement that there will be plenty of separation between the 2 features right now. And it's evident inside of 96 hours at this point. 

    I could see Irma going ots. Not because of the trough though. If forward speed slows Irma could ride the back side of the ridge behind the trough. By saying this I'll probably have to eat my words....lol

    With the way the flow has been accelerating, it's still anyone's guess!

  14. Posted

    1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    Moving to banter. We only get 40mb and it accumulates over time when you don't delete the images. It's not fun to try to manage. You can see where you are in your limit by going to "my attachments" at the top of the page. 

    ty

  18. Posted

    4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    Morning Thoughts (Long Post)
    Now that we have reached Monday, recon will be flying virtually around the clock. The data we receive today, especially sampled environment from the high altitude flight(s) will be invaluable as the models continue to struggle with the future progression of Irma. 

    First, we have to recognize that there is remarkable consistency between virtually all of the guidance through the next 5 days when Irma is supposed to enter the Bahamas. Now, the folks in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola may not say that with the southern shift toward them, but for our purposes, the globals and hurricane models are in lockstep that Irma heads into the southern Bahamas. From there, it gets muddy fast. 

    11L_tracks_latest.thumb.png.7e6ec798932b9f4fbe8c0196623226db.png.57db62087457271f799500ee14fcce63.png

    eps_cyclone_atlantic_06.thumb.png.74a29db0c2195bac773ba960565ae1dc.pnggefs_cyclone_atlantic_06.thumb.png.b30cba554c2a18f20cb10882fd65273d.png

    On the operational runs and the ensembles (EPS to the least extent) we're seeing a continuing adjustment to the south and west. This looks to be in response to two things: the current Atlantic ridge coming in stronger than originally modeled, which pushes Irma far enough south and west to resist the initial influence of the NE trough, which is progressive on the GFS. 

    gfs-ens_z500trend_atl_11.thumb.png.522107290483a07c5af521b738c20b4d.png

    Now, the same caution flags that I threw up yesterday apply to today. Irma still hasn't made the turn to the WNW, and as a result, I don't think we really have a well defined sense of the strength of the ridge. Once that turn happens, that will remove an anomalous variable from the work the models have to do, and that may (or may not) allow them to adjust to whatever the more accurate solution is near the Bahamas. 

    The other flag is that consistency at this range still does not necessarily imply accuracy. There is still quite a bit of spread between the GFS/GEFS, which seems to want to make this a FL/eastern Gulf landfall threat, and the Euro/EPS, which still has a Carolinas threat and distinct OTS grouping. In fact, quite a bit of spread is an understatement. There is fundamental disagreement among the guidance in the 5-10 day evolution of Irma's track.

    12z

    eps_cyclone_atlantic_12.thumb.png.2a7b073ec98b786e75e81d6d0a7daf00.png

    00z

    eps_cyclone_atlantic_00.thumb.png.38b517bb907e71af750a6e2b9126f6c2.png

    With regard to intensity, I won't bore you with images and plots. I'll just say that I agree with the NHC. We should stop talking about the erroneous GFS central pressures, but be sobered up by the fact that the environment ahead is excellent for developing and supporting a very deep system absent land interaction.  

    Also, Irma is growing. As anticipated, the wind field is expanding. With each ERC (which seems to be happening frequently now) those winds expand out even more. It is an incredible process to watch.

    Friday 5am--Hurricane-force winds extended 15 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extended 90 miles.
    Saturday 5am--Hurricane-force winds extended 25 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extended 80 miles.
    Monday 5am--Hurricane-force winds extended 30 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extended 140 miles.

    Our Backyards
    Finally, for our backyards, there's clearly a threat. I'm not yet convinced that any of the guidance has it totally right, as we're still trying to figure out the impact the wave break has on the NE trough and WAR. We've seen plenty of times before how even strong ridges aren't as strong as anticipated at range, and if there is one thing that has been unanimous aside from intensity, it's that there is a northward turn eventually as upper level energy enters the south.

    Whether Irma threatens us via a NC landfall and Hazel like track, or a close scrape as this escapes OTS, or the jackpot--left turning Bob Chill Special (:lol:) remains to be seen. I wouldn't have anyone on the EC let their guard down on this, but realistically, I think that right now anyone from the Outer Banks to Tampa should be watching closely for a direct hit, with our region paying close attention to the potential of a NC landfall and northward moving system that brings a significant event here. 

    The first bold comment caught my attention. So true!

    • Like 1

  20. Posted

    12 minutes ago, cae said:

     

    I agree.  I flipped through some runs yesterday and came to a similar conclusion.  This is almost certainly oversimpifying, but the key factors appear to be the timing of Irma and how it interacts with the departing trough.  Now that most models seem to have the trough pulling out before Irma gets here, capture by the trough to our west is mostly off the table.  The remaining question is whether the trough hangs around long enough (and is deep enough) to pull Irma OTS.  The disturbance to the west might adjust the landfall location and inland track, but I don't think it's going to be a major factor in determining whether Irma goes OTS or not.

    Quick side note, speaking of the trough, look at what we may be dealing with later in the week relative to today's air mass!