BTRWx

I just filtered an AmWx lurker from Facebook who disapproved of my post count. That made my day!

1 hour ago, yoda said:

We've known for a while

 

I posted that in the main thread earlier then decided to remove it. Man are their resolution options poor!

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Ha! Question everything. 

At least we finally saw convergence today and the often insulted GFS/GEFS has been leading the pack. It can all go to hell even at relatively short leads but at least we don't have a big outlier anymore. 

Our yards are a long long way away for a few more days. First piece of business is Irma passing Cuba with minimal disruption. Then we can work on skirting east of Miami. Then we can work on LF further north closer to NC. Then we can work on how the center races towards our yards. What could possibly go wrong? LOLOL

Today's euro seems close to that at least.

Great analyses tonight!

It looks like another brush to the east.

eta: though much less so compared to 18Z

3 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

Well, either way, the GFS remains nowhere near the Euro/Ukie Cuba crawler.

The GFS does appear to be getting closer to the euro in terms of the mid-upper levels.

There's going to be quite a battle at h5 with the tightening heights!

1 minute ago, Amped said:

GFS initialized a tick south of 18z

It's a good mean between 12Z and 18Z so far.

3 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

No, on time. 

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/index.html#TARGET

Wasn't there a time the data used to initialize around :15?

Is the 0Z gfs delayed?

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Sigh... my professor for Synoptic Met made a video about Irma on our discussion board and spent time on the GGEM and tried the CFS...

Any chance it's Jeff Haby?

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Dropped in the northern section of the eyewall. Just insane. 

 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level	Air Temperature	Dew Point
937mb (Surface)	24.8°C (76.6°F)	24.5°C (76°F)
850mb	21.0°C (69.8°F)	20.5°C (69°F)
755mb	17.2°C (63.0°F)	16.8°C (62°F)
704mb	14.4°C (57.9°F)	14.2°C (58°F)
695mb	12.4°C (54.3°F)	12.4°C (54°F)

 

Significant Wind Levels
Level	Wind Direction	Wind Speed
937mb (Surface)	50° (from the NE)	161 knots (185 mph)
931mb	55° (from the NE)	161 knots (185 mph)
917mb	65° (from the ENE)	170 knots (196 mph)
912mb	65° (from the ENE)	159 knots (183 mph)
904mb	70° (from the ENE)	157 knots (181 mph)
900mb	75° (from the ENE)	162 knots (186 mph)
893mb	75° (from the ENE)	184 knots (212 mph)
885mb	75° (from the ENE)	168 knots (193 mph)
878mb	80° (from the E)	173 knots (199 mph)
873mb	80° (from the E)	162 knots (186 mph)
856mb	90° (from the E)	165 knots (190 mph)
850mb	85° (from the E)	159 knots (183 mph)
794mb	95° (from the E)	145 knots (167 mph)
695mb	115° (from the ESE)	151 knots (174 mph)

speechless

7 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Wow! Bigtime shift east.  Maybe the happy hour GFS isn't out to lunch. 

I wonder, are there even any gefs members on that map?  Are they add-ons to the later graphic or separate?

The list is long...https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/data/nhc_model_list.txt

I challenge someone to beat me finding how many times on record NHC has evacuated!

I have to upload the 18Z gefs map due to the cache issue.

Here are the early ones.

Just now, gymengineer said:

Bottom one from 9/4. 

Good catch, thanks!

4 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

There's exactly 1 loner among the gefs members.  Not likely!

Anyone know why these don't match?

There's exactly 1 loner among the gefs members.  Not likely!

11 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Looks like the GEFS doesn't support the op, there is a camp with the quick right turn but most don't. 

Did anyone actually expect it too?...

Also, remember that today's 12Z euro has a landfall west of yesterday's midday run.

The WAR seems to pull away to the north rather quickly.

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

18z

00z

Consolidation is improving.

lol at all of you mentioning the State of Emergency was issued earlier. Where is it in the threads?...