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Posts posted by BTRWx

  1. 1 minute ago, dtk said:

    Even though I work on data assimilation, this is a problem I am interested in solving for NCEP and something I have started working on.  We are trying to adapt some things that we have implemented into the ensemble we use as part of the DA scheme for application in the GEFS.  Unfortunately, I don't think we can implement these things until we are running the FV3-GFS operationally.

    I can't imagine the tireless effort you put into that!  If only additional staffing was available to collaborate on the projects...

  2. 5 minutes ago, cae said:

    That's a nice site.  Thanks for the link.  They have some good model verification stats there as well.  Despite all of the discussion about the GFS over-intensifying storms, so far it has clearly had the best intensity forecasts (12-hour interpolated).  Its 3-day error is 14 knots.  The next best model for 3-day error, CLIPER, is at 22.6 knots.

    I believe they were one of the first sources (possibly the first) to offer spaghetti plots beyond NCEP without having to subscribe elsewhere.

  3. 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    Even with the trough hanging back, it looks like the last 4-5 runs have the WAR and building ridge to the north a little stronger. Still don't see much of an escape route. I'll let the next few panels play out. 

    There might be one for FL now (other than the far SE coast)