BTRWx

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm still trying to figure out how the government adds an extra hour of sun every spring and what effect that has on late season snowstorms. 

It was negated by the eclipse.

The Keys and Miami are in trouble on the 12Z euro!

22 minutes ago, H2O said:

When you are rooting for the CMC to not disappoint and show a bay mauler like it always does it is a sign of true desperation.

Euro will save us!...one last time

1 minute ago, dtk said:

Even though I work on data assimilation, this is a problem I am interested in solving for NCEP and something I have started working on.  We are trying to adapt some things that we have implemented into the ensemble we use as part of the DA scheme for application in the GEFS.  Unfortunately, I don't think we can implement these things until we are running the FV3-GFS operationally.

I can't imagine the tireless effort you put into that!  If only additional staffing was available to collaborate on the projects...

Just now, dtk said:

Especially given the fact that the GEFS has a pretty pronounced under-dispersion issue with TC tracks.

I've definitely seen better!

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS mean track is west over FL now. Not a good run for Miami at all. 

Those clusters are sure taking quite a while to consolidate!

I noticed tropicaltidbits frames load quicker for large basin-wide views than the zoomed in regional maps.

5 minutes ago, cae said:

That's a nice site.  Thanks for the link.  They have some good model verification stats there as well.  Despite all of the discussion about the GFS over-intensifying storms, so far it has clearly had the best intensity forecasts (12-hour interpolated).  Its 3-day error is 14 knots.  The next best model for 3-day error, CLIPER, is at 22.6 knots.

I believe they were one of the first sources (possibly the first) to offer spaghetti plots beyond NCEP without having to subscribe elsewhere.

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Just add the IR and track and it should work for you both. 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=11L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

Also, Google Earth can be fun with layers! http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/

The 12Z early idea shows much better agreement now.

No Mid Atlantic impacts this time!

Very close to landfall here and a shift back towards the FL coast!

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Clears Cuba by 72. Doesn't look like a landfall there. That allows it to maintain intensity. 924mb verbatim and off the SE FL coast. Unclear on whether it keeps west. 

The next frame may be the most important imo.

The center is just north of Cuba at hr 72 (as expected).

The euro is running, but nothing too noticeably different in early frames.  The trough might lift a little sooner.

Despite Wunderground's horrible new layout, Dr. Jeff Masters' blog is still one of the best! https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-extreme-storm-surge-threat-us-and-bahamas

Unless something drastic changes, the areas spared by Matthew in South FL in particular last year probably won't be by Irma just based off geography alone geometry. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/90/Matthew_2016_track.png

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Even with the trough hanging back, it looks like the last 4-5 runs have the WAR and building ridge to the north a little stronger. Still don't see much of an escape route. I'll let the next few panels play out. 

There might be one for FL now (other than the far SE coast)

Overall flow is ever so slightly slower on the 0Z gfs compared to 12Z

18 minutes ago, yoda said:

Pretty sure soundings are being taken every 6 hours in the US...

True, but the coverage is not the same. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/17090606_OBS/

Remember that 18Z input != 12Z

46 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

10 hour Irma  radar loop. 

It's interesting to see Irma's rain bands more symmetrical than convection around her eye.

I think it's hilarious that the Spanish named tropical cyclones are impacting the same regions around the same time.

The 18Z gfs has Irma brushing closer to Puerto Rico.

All this rain we've had makes you want to think about what the heck is going on with ENSO right now.