BTRWx

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Posts posted by BTRWx


  1. 16 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

    I realize that we have along way to go but doesn’t it feel like this winter will be near snowless and just pure suckage.  It’s just a gut feeling that trough west ridge east pattern will dominate with several wedges Cad episodes that are just not cold enough to be helpful.  

    Weak nina winters can be the toughest to forecast imo.  The last few are a good example of that idea.


  2. 24 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

    I know it has nothing to do with recent posts but wanted to tie this loose end up.

    Levi responded to my email.  There is a monthly SSTA map on tropical tidbits under the Hurricane season Analog tab!

    59f9bf531412f_monthlySST.png.03dc6e628aa838225c34ed7f89ef5432.png

    Excellent!

    • Like 1

  3. 28 minutes ago, SteveVa said:

    Damn, we're early this year. Writing off the winter before November lol

    Jokes aside, indices don't mean much for me. All it takes is one storm and everything changes. Past winter was arguably one of the worst for the mid-atlantic, but I got lucky with one storm, got 7 inches, ended up with (barely) AN snowfall for the winter and a 3-4 day stretch with temps constantly below 32 (even broke a record for record low high, was something like 23 degrees)

    I honestly enjoyed tracking all the near misses last year and especially the sleet fest that lasted with abundant qpf. That storm could have really scored us something big if we were a few degrees colder. 


  4. 19 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

    Go ahead and say it :P  this thread of thought points toward a snowy winter for the East coast.  

     

    Now before everyone gets excited we need this look to hold for several weeks. Models hint at some cooling in the 3.4 region.. I don’t think we see a FULL shift to a central based Niña but it’s not off the table yet.

     

    I just asked Levi at tidbits if he could add a monthly SSTA map that updates daily haha cant know until you try! 

     I just realized the +snow weak nina winters don't look so weak in the enso department before those seasons have a chance.  I'll still try to focus on positive insight. .... winter on the way!


  5. 8 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

    In all my digging the only monthly mean I found was from the most recent CPC weekly ENSO discussion.

    Picture1.png.9be15a04ec2ecc503c68de59a937e0a6.png

    perhaps someone else has a better source?

     

    Here is a very current view that shows the SSTA very well. but again its simply a snapshot of yesterday.

    ssta.thumb.gif.0f179055d411adeed458f5524854a816.gif

    Support is there for a .... winter.


  6. 1 minute ago, George BM said:

    Gotcha. My mistake.

    It's still a notable trend.  I think people are approaching this from different reference points.  Those ssta maps George shared from last year show what went wrong and when.  This year would have to trend in the opposite direction from cool to warm almost like we are seeing now, but it's still too early to see how the PDO behaves as Bob said.


  7. 39 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

    Luckily from winters 13-14 to 15-16 we had a really good 2nd half of the winter. If we get above climo for snowfall in December, we're golden

    I don't remember where I saw this idea (it might be in the forums somewhere), but I saw a note that the long term winter signals from 2013-2015 had multiple climate monthlies fail miserably with false-torches.

    eta: Weatherbell's updated winter discussion is where I saw this.  Don't completely ignore implications! https://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2017-18-october-outlook

    eta eta: Bobchill, there's your challenge!

    usT2mSeaInd3_2(1).gif

    usT2mSeaInd3_3.gif


  8. On 10/27/2017 at 11:01 AM, mitchnick said:

    The reason why I'm a bit more optimistic than Bob and PSU is that I'm not completely sold on the Nina. I like this ENSO map because it presents a clearer picture than the other maps with 50 shades of blues and yellows. Anyway, today's map is below. Then, the next image is the ENSO temp change in the last 7 days and the final map are the progged PAC winds for the next 7 days, blues for trade winds (builds Nina) and yellows and tan for westerlies (builds Nino). As you can see, this Nina is on life support imho. Finally, if you click on the link below (click on T-Depth Anomalies), you can see the underwater temps seem to be rising again off the S American coast. Now, is all this warming temporary? Could be, but this Nina is supposed to peak around January 1, so with the last ONI number at only -.1C, it's paltry. To me, that's important because it allows other factors to muscle the atmosphere around, or at least the chance. Hence, my optimism for 75%-125% snowfall chances at BWI.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

     

     

    NAVY ENSO.10-27-17.gif

    7 day enso temp change.10-27-17.gif

    ENSO WINDS.10-27-17.gif

    This is an interesting thought.  Before enso trended predominantly toward a weak nina, recall I made a comment mid-late summer that I was booking on 2016-2017 2006-2007 that eventually became a nino.  My idea on that has obviously changed, but the more neutral signal is quite fascinating!


  9. 32 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

    Hey guys I'd like to post some research I have done.  Feel free to critique in any way. I'm not 100% on some of the years I've chosen. Any input is appreciated!

     

    So I recently took ALL weak and moderate Nina winters since 1950 and put them into two groups.  I pulled the average SSTA from each years October-December timeframe.  If they were remotely close to current SSTA I put them in one group which ended up being filled with primarily cold 1.2 regions and milder 3.4 regions.  The other group is simply any that have very little similarity to the current look.

     

    current SSTA 

    current.thumb.gif.82f65bcd625f2cc472d541251e1031c0.gif

    Composite for weak/mod ninas similar to this years SO FAR

    composite.png.c76b21956b608b07df2160cfdd3586ad.png

    Composite for weak/mod ninas not similar to this years SO FAR

     

    composite.png.cb541ef611a1ede38991ad3f68e1f584.png

     

     

    Sounds like quite a bit of guesswork but bear with me. 

     

     

    Temperatures across the US

     

    Here is the composite for years that have some resemblance to this year and are primarily but not all east based Nina's

    59f8947c8e63d_Dec-Febcomp.png.440542934c30502e9b0d8b91376a64a0.png

     

    Here is the other group that are primarily central based and have little if any similarity to current SSTA

    59f8948656fb8_dec-febcompW.png.2be59041eee4a8d7b6fdde17ea4f7822.png

     

     

    500 mb heights

     

    Similar to this years SSTA

     

    December

    IMG_2983.PNG.d81e991bdc4b886fa4e489292bd798bb.PNG

    Versus ninas not similar to current SSTA

    IMG_2982.PNG.364f797debe4a112f6f96c494a1db90b.PNG

     

     

    January

    Ninas similar

    IMG_2981.PNG.26b63164e7c9abf586be634e4461424c.PNG

     

    Not similar

     

    IMG_2980.PNG.b759079fa88032716c48767c58aa3da0.PNG

     

     

     

    All of this points toward a loaded first half of winter. I've seen a lot of forecasts so far calling for a warmer than average December but due to my research I believe December into first part of January will be our coldest period. 

     

    Also to me it seems like a weak east based nina has a lot more pattern flips as the blocking tries to assert itself.  And I know for NC atleast that we get a lot of our storms during those transitions between warm/cold and cold/warm. 

    So its reasonable to assume normal snowfall for East coast WITH an increased risk of a major snow event across the Mid Atlantic and even southeast.   January 2000 was a nice month for many.  

     

    If I had to make a call right now I'd say:

    Dec-February will be a battle between blocking and Nina asserting itself.  This will cause much of the monthly averages to even out close to normal but probably lean positive in the +1 to +2 territory (December could likely be the exception and be cold)

    Given the height map for December I put heightened risk for a solid winter pattern Mid to late December and that could bleed over into January especially if Nina stays weak.

    Heightened chance for a Major east coast snow/ice storm due to unstable transitional times.

     

    let me know if I've made a grave miscalculation lol

     

     

     

    Weak versus moderate teleconnection signals seem increasingly important to me.  Moderate nina is highly unlikely this winter.


  10. Just now, fountainguy97 said:

    I also did a lot of reasearch on modoki winter years. My conclusion from that was we want/need a cold 1.2 region to have hopes for a Niña year.  A Central pacific (modoki) Niña gives us a lot of warmth and ridging while east pacific leans toward -nao helping us out.

    It doesn't guarantee favorable trends, but it could help. 


  11. Bastardi mentioned an interesting theory about modoki signals.  The same way modoki nino winters benefit our region, Bastardi claims the modoki nina winters develop cold over the inter-mountain west.  I posted a chart not too long ago comparing weak nina years and whether they showed modoki signals.  The east based 1.2 enso region is where I want to see the nina for hope in the long range.  People want optimism right?  The east nina may be more likely for this winter.


  12. 6 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

    I have missed reading Ian's input since he scaled back time here, and his knack for research ranks up there with the best. The dates below are from a 2012 CWG article by him and Justin. WxUSA probably has the dates of the first freezes from contests since then, so maybe he can confirm that there hasn't been any later than these dates. 

    DCA 12/22/2001

    BWI  11/13/1986

    IAD  11/11/2005

    Here's the 2012 article which includes the top five earliest and latest of the 3 airports, but I'm not sure of the accuracy.  My guess is that the earliest chart is unchanged.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/first-freeze-of-fall-in-the-washington-dc-area-is-typical-by-mid-october/2012/10/12/8ecc969a-141c-11e2-be82-c3411b7680a9_blog.html?utm_term=.d2bbc9111886

    I was wondering when that article would be mentioned.


  13. 57 minutes ago, high risk said:

    If one goes back through all of the NAM nest runs of the past two days, while the details have moved around, they've consistently shown that the Sunday morning precip would produce a "screw zone" for a decent chunk of DC Metro.     They've also been consistent that the late afternoon period into the overnight will bring a soaker.    Now that we're into HRRR range, nothing has changed.

    Thanks